Shawn Armstrong
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82
ERA3.47
FIP3.54
K%23.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p520.310
CT+1.2 (24%)
SI (15%)
SL (28%)
FB-1.5 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 240 | 91 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.5% | 12.0% | 21.5% | 0.0% | 2.34 | 1.79 | +1.9 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 240 | 91 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.9% | 10.8% | 27.1% | 0.4% | 2.34 | 1.52 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 84 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 1.90 | 2.30 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 84 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.9% | 12.2% | 20.8% | 0.4% | 1.90 | 2.09 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 3.67 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 3.67 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 97 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 10.2% | 20.2% | 1.7% | 1.66 | 2.78 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 97 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.8% | 9.8% | 24.0% | 1.4% | 1.66 | 2.28 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 60 | 279 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 60 | 279 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 19.3% | 1.6% | 1.80 | 2.59 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 19.3% | 1.8% | 1.80 | 2.70 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 4.9% | 4.97 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 4.7% | 4.97 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 3 | 69 | 296 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 5% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 5.6% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.25 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 3 | 69 | 296 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 5% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 2.95 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 6 | 61 | 238 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 13% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 5.3% | 20.8% | 1.0% | 1.48 | 2.13 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 6 | 61 | 238 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 13% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 1.3% | 1.48 | 2.35 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 57 | 7 | 67 | 295 | 66 | 25 | 6 | 12% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 4.86 | 3.37 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 57 | 7 | 67 | 295 | 66 | 25 | 6 | 12% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 4.86 | 3.42 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 71 | 2 | 74 | 284 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 1.7% | 2.31 | 2.73 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 71 | 2 | 74 | 284 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 1.8% | 2.31 | 2.79 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 36 | 0 | 32 | 138 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 3.54 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 3.54 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 63 | 269 | 61 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 61 | 256 | 61 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 24.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 567 | 18 | 623 | 2640 | 620 | 218 | 73 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.68 | +12.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 6 | 200 | 848 | 199 | 70 | 23 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 623 | 19 | 688 | 2900 | 762 | 262 | 61 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.18 | +17.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 6 | 200 | 843 | 222 | 76 | 18 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shawn Armstrong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.60 | 24.3% | 7.4% | 2.2% | — | 4.64 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 141 | +1.04 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 76 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 72 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 71 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 70 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 70 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 70 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 68 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 68 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 68 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 67 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 67 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 66 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 66 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 1.12 | 4.16 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |