Shawn Armstrong
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.37
FIP3.60
xFIP4.89
SIERA4.01
K%24.6%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%16.9%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†6060
CT+1.2 (16%)
SI (19%)
SL (32%)
FB-1.5 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 54 | 0 | 58 | 240 | 91 | 26 | 1 | 33.5% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 2.34 | 1.79 | +2.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 59 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 84 | 31 | 1 | 31.1% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 1.90 | 2.30 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 49 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 3.67 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 63 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 97 | 28 | 4 | 30.4% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 1.66 | 2.69 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 57 | 1 | 60 | 279 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 5.55 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.80 | 2.68 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 60 | 0 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 27.0% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.97 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 57 | 3 | 69 | 296 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 24.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 3.18 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 46 | 6 | 61 | 238 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 26.1% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 1.48 | 2.07 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 57 | 7 | 67 | 295 | 66 | 25 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 4.86 | 3.41 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 71 | 2 | 74 | 284 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 2.31 | 2.78 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | — | 22 | 91 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 3.31 | 3.68 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 30 | 129 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 26.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 2.96 | 2.63 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | CLE | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 596 | 19 | 665 | 2800 | 744 | 251 | 59 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.15 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 6 | 200 | 842 | 224 | 75 | 18 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.15 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shawn Armstrong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.68 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.09 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 158 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 72 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 72 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 71 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 71 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 71 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 71 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 69 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 69 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 69 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 68 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 68 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 68 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.4 | $2M | -$2M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.7 | $3M | -$5M |
| Totals | $12M | $4M | -$8M | ||