Shawn Armstrong — OGILVIE

Shawn Armstrong P Cleveland Guardians

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.41

FIP3.47

K%23.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

CT+1.2 (24%)

SI (16%)

SL (27%)

FB-1.5 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	240	91	26	1	0%	1.1	33.5%	12.0%	21.5%	0.0%	2.34	1.79	+1.9
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	240	91	26	1	0%	1.1	37.9%	10.8%	27.1%	0.4%	2.34	1.52	+2.1
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	62	255	84	31	1	0%	1.0	31.1%	14.4%	16.6%	0.0%	1.90	2.30	+1.7
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	62	255	84	31	1	0%	1.0	32.9%	12.2%	20.8%	0.4%	1.90	2.09	+1.8
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	234	56	21	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.3%	3.67	4.21	+0.2
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	234	56	21	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.0%	15.0%	3.4%	3.67	4.12	+0.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	71	287	97	28	4	0%	1.1	30.4%	10.2%	20.2%	1.6%	1.66	2.71	+1.6
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	71	287	97	28	4	0%	1.1	33.8%	9.8%	24.0%	1.4%	1.66	2.28	+1.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	60	279	66	28	8	2%	1.1	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	2.7%	5.55	3.91	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	60	279	66	28	8	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.0%	13.6%	2.9%	5.55	4.03	+0.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	14	0	15	57	14	3	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	5.3%	19.3%	1.6%	1.80	2.56	+0.4
2020	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	14	0	15	57	14	3	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	5.3%	19.3%	1.8%	1.80	2.70	+0.3
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	67	297	85	23	14	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	4.9%	4.97	4.49	+0.0
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	67	297	85	23	14	0%	1.1	28.6%	7.7%	20.9%	4.7%	4.97	4.31	+0.2
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	3	69	296	76	17	7	5%	1.2	24.5%	5.6%	19.0%	2.7%	4.19	3.20	+1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	3	69	296	76	17	7	5%	1.2	25.7%	5.7%	19.9%	2.4%	4.19	2.95	+1.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	6	61	238	62	13	3	13%	1.3	26.1%	5.3%	20.8%	1.0%	1.48	2.12	+1.8
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	6	61	238	62	13	3	13%	1.3	26.1%	5.3%	20.8%	1.0%	1.48	2.12	+1.8
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	6	61	238	62	13	3	13%	1.3	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	1.3%	1.48	2.35	+1.6
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	57	7	67	295	66	25	6	12%	1.2	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	2.1%	4.86	3.44	+0.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	57	7	67	295	66	25	6	12%	1.2	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	2.1%	4.86	3.44	+0.9
2024	33	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	57	7	67	295	66	25	6	12%	1.2	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	2.0%	4.86	3.42	+0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	71	2	74	284	74	20	5	3%	1.0	26.1%	7.0%	19.0%	1.6%	2.31	2.69	+1.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	71	2	74	284	74	20	5	3%	1.0	26.1%	7.0%	19.0%	1.6%	2.31	2.69	+1.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	71	2	74	284	74	20	5	3%	1.0	26.1%	7.0%	19.0%	1.8%	2.31	2.79	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			408	18	454	1933	467	152	51	4%	1.1	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	2.6%	3.90	3.51	+5.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	41	0	36	159	36	19	4	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.7%	5.00	4.26	+0.1
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	41	0	36	159	36	19	4	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.7%	5.00	4.26	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AA RAW	CLE	2	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.69	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	CLE	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	CLE	38	0	33	146	33	18	4	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.91	4.26	+0.1
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	CLE	38	0	33	146	33	18	4	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.91	4.26	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.3%	3.41	3.47	—
ROS	35	MLB CTX	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.3%	3.41	3.47	—
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	36	159	36	19	4	—	—	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	2.5%	5.00	4.26	+0.1
FULL	35	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	33	139	36	19	4	—	—	25.8%	13.6%	12.2%	2.9%	5.45	4.22	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CLE	51	0	54	226	51	21	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.25	+0.2
2028	37	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	47	198	43	20	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.43	4.66	-0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	CLE	38	0	40	170	35	18	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.6%	4.82	5.09	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	CLE	51	0	54	228	52	22	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.25	+0.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	43	20	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.43	4.66	-0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	35	18	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.6%	4.82	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		542	18	595	2527	596	212	69	3%	1.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.02	3.68	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	6	200	849	200	71	23	3%	1.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.02	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		628	19	692	2921	768	265	61	3%	1.1	26.3%	9.1%	17.2%	2.1%	3.34	3.17	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	5	200	844	222	77	18	3%	1.1	26.3%	9.1%	17.2%	2.1%	3.34	3.17	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shawn Armstrong (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	24.3%	7.4%	2.2%	—	4.63	21.7%	11.6%	141	+1.04	—	—	—
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	78
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	78
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	78
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	76
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	76
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	76
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	75
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	75
Adam Ottavino R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	35	SU	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.9%	.299	3.14	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.32	2.10	488	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	74
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	73
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	72
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	71
Jesse Chavez R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	35	SW	4.00	21.4%	6.5%	3.4%	.303	3.25	25.5%	17.9%	140	-0.75	2.03	804	70
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	69
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	69
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	69
Joe Blanton R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	35	SU	3.01	25.4%	7.0%	2.1%	.233	4.94	20.0%	14.4%	44	+1.93	3.01	240	69
David Phelps R 2022 · 2.96 FIP	35	SU	2.96	23.5%	11.4%	0.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	373	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	22.5%	9.3%	1.11	4.16
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97