Ryan Tepera
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.0
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.64
FIP4.34
xFIP5.49
SIERA4.24
K%23.2%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.2%
IP8
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF6565
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
CT-2.1
FB-3.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 53 | 0 | 67 | 258 | 59 | 18 | 9 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2.15 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 57 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.4% | 2.69 | 3.11 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 81 | 27 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.25 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 68 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 68 | 23 | 9 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 3 | 29 | 121 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.40 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 21 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 3.17 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 65 | 0 | 61 | 240 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 2.79 | 2.27 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 59 | 0 | 57 | 232 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 3.61 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 21 | 1 | 21 | 92 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.92 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | STL | 8 | — | 8 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 5.50 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | STL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 447 | 4 | 462 | 1880 | 452 | 152 | 51 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.24 | 3.60 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 2 | 200 | 814 | 196 | 66 | 22 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.24 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Tepera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.55 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 76 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 73 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 72 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 70 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 67 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 67 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 66 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 65 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 64 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 62 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 62 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 59 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 59 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 58 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 58 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 58 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.99 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.91 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.08 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 58 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.