Ryan Tepera
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.18
FIP4.33
K%23.2%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
CT-2.1
FB-3.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 67 | 258 | 59 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 2.15 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 67 | 258 | 59 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 7.0% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 2.15 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 2.69 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 2.93 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 81 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.23 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 81 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.23 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 68 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 68 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 68 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 68 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 29 | 121 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 10% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.40 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 29 | 121 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 10% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 4.40 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 21 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 21.3% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.07 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 21 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 21.3% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.10 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 65 | 0 | 61 | 240 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 1.6% | 2.79 | 2.33 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 65 | 0 | 61 | 240 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 1.7% | 2.79 | 2.42 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 59 | 0 | 57 | 232 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 3.61 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 59 | 0 | 57 | 232 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 21 | 92 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 5% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 14.0% | 5.3% | 3.92 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 21 | 92 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 5% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.25 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | STL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | STL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | STL | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 4.93 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.35 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | STL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | STL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 4.93 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.35 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 475 | 1 | 472 | 1955 | 461 | 165 | 64 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.97 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 828 | 195 | 70 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 447 | 4 | 462 | 1880 | 452 | 152 | 53 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.65 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 2 | 200 | 814 | 196 | 66 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Tepera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.15 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 107 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 88 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 83 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 81 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 71 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 71 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 68 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 65 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 64 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 60 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 59 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 59 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 59 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 56 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 55 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 53 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 39 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.42 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |