Shay Schanaman — OGILVIE

Shay Schanaman P Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%18.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	16	61	16	5	0	0%	1.6	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	0.0%	1.15	1.92	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	16	61	16	5	0	0%	1.6	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	0.0%	1.15	1.92	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	16	61	16	5	0	0%	1.6	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	0.0%	1.15	2.01	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.7%	4.53	4.34	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.7%	4.53	4.34	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.6%	20.7%	2.5%	4.53	3.00	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	14.4%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	6.40	6.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	14.4%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	6.40	6.16	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.3%	6.0%	2.7%	6.40	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	5.3%	6.08	5.99	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	5.3%	6.08	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	ATL	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	4.4%	6.08	5.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	56	0	58	247	46	30	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.20	5.21	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	54	0	57	239	45	29	8	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	3.3%	5.19	5.23	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	21	0	22	93	17	11	3	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.20	5.21	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	32	0	34	144	27	18	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	3.3%	5.19	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	235	44	29	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.3%	6.5%	3.2%	5.19	4.84	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	104	29	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.3%	6.5%	3.2%	5.19	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		113	7	166	724	135	81	29	6%	1.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	8	200	871	163	98	35	6%	1.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shay Schanaman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	18.1%	12.6%	3.1%	—	5.22	18.7%	6.5%	115	-0.05	—	—	—
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	85
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	82
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	82
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	82
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	18.6%	12.3%	1.24	5.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58