Shay Schanaman

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+ATL	43	0	58	4.53	3.00	27.3%	6.6%	—	K 21.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.34
2025	25	MIX2 levels	27	0	32	6.40	4.86	21.3%	15.3%	—	K 14.4% · BB 17.9% · FIP 6.16
2026	26	AAATL	33	7	61	6.08	5.14	21.4%	10.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.99
2027PROJ	27	MLBATL	1	0	1	5.45	5.45	17.9%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBATL	10	0	10	5.39	5.42	18.3%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Scott Proctor (age 27) · David Holman (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%17.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	16	61	16	5	0	0%	1.6	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	0.0%	1.15	1.92	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	16	61	16	5	0	0%	1.6	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	0.0%	1.15	2.01	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.7%	4.53	4.34	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.7%	4.53	4.34	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	43	0	58	242	66	16	6	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.6%	20.7%	2.5%	4.53	3.00	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	14.4%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	6.40	6.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	14.4%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	6.40	6.16	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	32	150	32	23	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.3%	6.0%	2.7%	6.40	4.86	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	5.3%	6.08	5.99	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	5.3%	6.08	5.99	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Columbus Clingstones	33	7	61	271	58	28	12	21%	1.8	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	4.4%	6.08	5.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.8%	6.0%	3.6%	5.45	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	25	0	26	112	20	13	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.39	5.42	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	10	0	10	42	8	5	2	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.39	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	8	5	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.39	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	100	40	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.39	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		113	7	166	724	135	81	29	6%	1.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	8	200	871	163	98	35	6%	1.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 61 IPFIP 5.03 → 5.99 (+0.96)K% 21.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.40%	—	×0.810	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.33%	—	×1.100	11.37%
HR / BF /BF	4.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.31%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.03 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 29 IPFIP 5.23 → 6.16 (+0.93)K% 17.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.73%	—	×0.810	14.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.31%	—	×1.100	17.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷0.934	×1.200	3.64%

Result: FIP 5.23 → 6.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 58 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.34 (+1.34)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.770	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.61%	—	×1.150	7.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.831	×1.250	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.68 (+0.58)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.770	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.150	13.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.022	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 7 IPFIP 0.57 → 1.45 (+0.88)K% 36.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.740	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.57 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shay Schanaman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	17.9%	11.8%	3.6%	—	5.42	18.3%	6.6%	26	-0.03	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	89
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	89
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	85
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	85
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	83
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	19.0%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	83
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	18.1%	11.8%	1.40	5.42
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*