Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.44
K%21.6%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%16.1%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.377
CT+2.2 (10%)
SI (18%)
SL (22%)
CH-1.0 (21%)
FB-7.6 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 418 | 134 | 27 | 10 | 95% | 4.8 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.07 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 418 | 134 | 27 | 10 | 95% | 4.8 | 32.1% | 6.5% | 25.6% | 2.4% | 4.55 | 2.51 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 123 | 510 | 122 | 28 | 16 | 96% | 4.9 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 4.32 | 4.70 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 123 | 510 | 122 | 28 | 16 | 96% | 4.9 | 23.9% | 5.5% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 120 | 490 | 152 | 37 | 22 | 88% | 4.6 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 18.8% | 5.3% | 4.06 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 120 | 490 | 152 | 37 | 22 | 88% | 4.6 | 31.0% | 7.6% | 23.5% | 4.5% | 4.06 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 8.3% | 3.00 | 4.86 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 8.3% | 3.00 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 14 | 71 | 293 | 68 | 15 | 9 | 70% | 3.5 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 16.0% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 14 | 71 | 293 | 68 | 15 | 9 | 70% | 3.5 | 23.2% | 5.1% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 5.20 | 3.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 17 | 16 | 68 | 299 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 94% | 4.0 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 49 | 208 | 45 | 11 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 5.5% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.6% | 5.5% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 117 | 507 | 110 | 37 | 15 | — | — | 21.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 27 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 4 | — | — | 21.6% | 5.5% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 18 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 66 | 278 | 58 | 18 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 30 | 176 | 742 | 163 | 47 | 31 | 86% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 4.81 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 185 | 53 | 35 | 86% | 5.1 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 4.81 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 97 | 481 | 2022 | 453 | 146 | 84 | 89% | 4.4 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 840 | 188 | 61 | 35 | 89% | 4.4 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | — | 4.67 | 21.0% | 14.6% | 136 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 72 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 69 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 69 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 68 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 67 |
| Markus Solbach R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 67 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 66 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.29 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.57 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.28 | 1.66 | 242 | 65 |
| Luis Garcia R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.61 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 535 | 65 |
| Cody Anderson R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 65 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 65 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 64 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 64 |
| Yohan Pino R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 63 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 63 |
| Cole Johnson R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 101 | 63 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 63 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 63 |
| Barry Enright R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 1.51 | 4.54 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |