Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.79
FIP4.34
xFIP4.11
SIERA3.89
K%22.7%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%15.7%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.377
CT+2.2 (10%)
SI (18%)
SL (22%)
CH-1.0 (21%)
FB-7.6 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 418 | 134 | 27 | 10 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 3.85 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 25 | 24 | 123 | 510 | 122 | 28 | 16 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.32 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 23 | 120 | 490 | 152 | 37 | 22 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.06 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 20 | 14 | 71 | 293 | 68 | 15 | 9 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.20 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 3 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | 7.56 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 37 | 164 | 34 | 11 | 7 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.41 | 3.43 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 63 | 20 | 11 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 60 | 20 | 10 | 20.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 56 | 20 | 10 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 53 | 20 | 10 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 49 | 19 | 10 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | DET | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 44 | 19 | 9 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 84 | 422 | 1767 | 403 | 121 | 74 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.50 | 4.33 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 837 | 191 | 57 | 35 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.50 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | — | 4.58 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 202 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 82 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 81 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 81 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 80 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Rob Wooten R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 77 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 77 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 230 | 77 |
| Cory Mazzoni R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 18.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.78 | 101 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 75 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.