Sawyer Gipson-Long

Sawyer Gipson-Long P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.38

K%21.2%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%16.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

CT+2.2 (10%)

SI (18%)

SL (22%)

CH-1.0 (21%)

FB-7.6 (47%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.099 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$0.7M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	418	134	27	10	95%	4.8	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	3.4%	4.55	3.87	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	97	418	134	27	10	95%	4.8	32.1%	6.5%	25.6%	2.4%	4.55	2.51	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	123	510	122	28	16	96%	4.9	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.32	4.52	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	123	510	122	28	16	96%	4.9	23.9%	5.5%	18.4%	3.1%	4.32	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	120	490	152	37	22	88%	4.6	26.3%	7.6%	18.8%	5.2%	4.06	4.69	+0.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	120	490	152	37	22	88%	4.6	26.3%	7.6%	18.8%	5.2%	4.06	4.69	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	120	490	152	37	22	88%	4.6	31.0%	7.6%	23.5%	4.5%	4.06	3.88	+1.5
2024	26	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.86	—
2024	26	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.86	—
2024	26	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.77	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	20.8%	5.0%	15.8%	3.6%	5.20	3.97	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	20.8%	5.0%	15.8%	3.6%	5.20	3.97	+0.8
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	23.2%	5.1%	18.1%	3.1%	5.20	3.47	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	7	51	215	52	14	10	58%	4.3	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	4.7%	5.44	4.42	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	26	104	480	108	50	17	96%	3.8	18.7%	9.6%	9.1%	4.0%	5.73	4.91	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	26	104	480	108	50	17	96%	3.8	18.7%	9.6%	9.1%	4.0%	5.73	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	DET	1	1	2	9	2	0	0	100%	1.7	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	26	25	102	471	106	50	17	96%	3.9	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.6%	5.82	4.53	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	7	28	6	1	1	100%	6.7	21.2%	5.2%	16.1%	3.7%	4.39	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	110	508	114	51	18	—	—	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.6%	5.65	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	70	296	62	17	11	100%	5.8	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	3.8%	4.47	4.53	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	278	57	18	11	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.3%	14.0%	3.9%	4.62	4.72	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	260	51	18	11	100%	6.2	19.8%	6.8%	12.9%	4.1%	4.80	4.93	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	23	6	4	100%	6.5	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.38	4.44	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	31	10	6	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.3%	14.0%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	42	177	35	12	7	100%	6.0	19.8%	6.8%	12.9%	3.9%	4.70	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	24	156	656	141	42	27	83%	5.4	21.5%	6.4%	15.1%	4.1%	4.85	4.33	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	31	200	842	181	54	35	83%	5.3	21.5%	6.4%	15.1%	4.1%	4.85	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		119	107	517	2203	481	161	91	90%	4.3	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.70	4.45	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	852	186	62	35	90%	4.3	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.70	4.45	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sawyer Gipson-Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	21.2%	5.2%	3.7%	—	4.72	20.4%	14.1%	198	+0.34	—	—	—
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	67
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	66
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	64
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	64
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	64
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	64
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	64
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	63
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	63
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	62
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	62
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	62
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	61
Nick Tepesch R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	28	SP	5.37	16.0%	6.2%	5.2%	.294	5.56	10.1%	2.1%	97	+0.19	3.74	276	61
Akeel Morris R 2021 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	21.5%	7.8%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	305	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	20.6%	6.0%	1.50	4.56
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45