Sawyer Gipson-Long

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	ADET	1	1	3	3.00	4.77	33.3%	0.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 4.86
2025	27	MIX4 levels	20	14	71	5.20	3.47	23.2%	5.1%	1.7	K 21.2% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.94
2026	28	MIX2 levels	28	27	110	5.50	4.51	22.2%	10.4%	—	K 19.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	5	5	29	4.68	4.82	19.6%	7.8%	0.2
2028PROJ61% MLB	30	MLBDET	6	6	33	4.84	4.98	19.2%	8.2%	0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	31	MLBDET	5	5	31	5.01	5.16	18.8%	8.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%32

FB Velo26

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.68

FIP4.82

K%19.6%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	418	134	27	10	95%	4.8	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	3.4%	4.55	3.87	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	97	418	134	27	10	95%	4.8	32.1%	6.5%	25.6%	2.4%	4.55	2.51	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	123	510	122	28	16	96%	4.9	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.32	4.52	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	123	510	122	28	16	96%	4.9	23.9%	5.5%	18.4%	3.1%	4.32	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	120	490	152	37	22	88%	4.6	26.6%	7.6%	19.1%	5.2%	4.06	4.67	+1.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	120	490	152	37	22	88%	4.6	31.0%	7.6%	23.5%	4.5%	4.06	3.88	+2.2
2024	26	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.86	—
2024	26	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.86	—
2024	26	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	1	3	12	4	0	1	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.77	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	21.2%	5.0%	16.2%	3.6%	5.20	3.94	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	21.2%	5.0%	16.2%	3.6%	5.20	3.94	+1.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	14	71	293	68	15	9	70%	3.5	23.2%	5.1%	18.1%	3.1%	5.20	3.47	+1.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	110	501	111	52	17	96%	3.9	19.1%	9.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.50	4.78	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	110	501	111	52	17	96%	3.9	19.1%	9.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.50	4.78	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	110	501	111	52	17	96%	3.9	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.4%	5.50	4.51	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	7	51	215	52	14	10	58%	4.3	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	4.7%	5.44	4.42	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	5	5	29	122	24	10	4	100%	5.8	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.7%	4.68	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	55	231	45	19	9	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.8%	4.84	4.98	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	44	185	35	16	7	100%	6.3	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	4.0%	5.01	5.16	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	27	11	5	100%	5.5	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.8%	4.84	4.98	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	31	131	25	11	5	100%	6.2	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	4.0%	5.01	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	18	116	488	104	37	21	78%	5.0	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	4.2%	5.15	4.57	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	31	200	841	179	64	36	78%	5.1	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	4.2%	5.15	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		120	108	523	2224	489	162	91	90%	4.4	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	4.1%	4.66	4.41	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	850	187	62	35	90%	4.4	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	4.1%	4.66	4.41	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 108 IPFIP 4.46 → 4.78 (+0.32)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.15%	—	×0.860	19.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.57%	—	×0.900	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.46%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 33 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.39 (+0.35)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.52%	—	×0.860	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×0.900	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.872	×1.100	0.96%

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 6 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.25 (+0.55)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.770	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.150	5.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 65 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.82 (+0.91)K% 29.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.80%	—	×0.810	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.100	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷1.055	×1.200	5.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 35 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.27 (+0.90)K% 32.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.68%	—	×0.860	28.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×0.900	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	5.23%	÷0.901	×1.100	6.38%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 73 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.93 (+1.02)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.01%	—	×0.810	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.72%	—	×1.100	5.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.926	×1.200	4.89%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 50 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.83 (+1.02)K% 27.1% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.770	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.150	7.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.948	×1.250	2.75%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 67 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.60 (+1.32)K% 32.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.99%	—	×0.740	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.180	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷0.908	×1.300	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sawyer Gipson-Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.6%	7.8%	3.7%	—	5.06	19.0%	10.6%	99	+0.24	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	80
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	74
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	73
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	72
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	72
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	72
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	71
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	71
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	71
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	71
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	69
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	68
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	67
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	67
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	67
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	67
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	67
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	20.4%	7.8%	1.54	4.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*