Aaron Brooks

P Durham Bulls

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MIX2 levels	20	13	94	4.96	3.65	14.8%	5.7%	2.0	K 13.2% · BB 5.4% · FIP 3.82
2025	35	MIX2 levels	18	14	87	5.56	5.17	16.7%	8.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.01
2026	36	MIX2 levels	8	4	19	8.53	6.42	14.3%	8.8%	-0.2	K 12.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	37	MLBTB	7	7	43	4.88	4.97	13.8%	6.3%	0.2
2028PROJ86% MLB	38	MLBTB	4	4	25	5.19	5.40	12.7%	7.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo16

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJonathan Castellanos (age 37) · Kenshin Kawakami (age 35) · Walter Silva (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.88

FIP4.97

K%13.8%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p1010.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	2	1	3	24	2	3	1	50%	1.3	8.3%	12.5%	-4.2%	4.2%	43.88	6.27	-0.0
2014	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	2	1	3	24	2	3	1	50%	1.3	8.3%	12.5%	-4.2%	4.2%	43.88	9.85	-0.1
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	28	174	740	141	34	19	85%	5.3	17.4%	4.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	3.93	+3.1
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	28	174	740	141	34	19	85%	5.3	19.1%	4.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.55	3.49	+4.1
2016	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	5	4	16	75	12	4	5	80%	3.3	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	8.2%	7.71	7.14	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	5	4	16	75	12	4	5	80%	3.3	16.0%	5.3%	10.7%	6.7%	7.71	6.34	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	26	26	146	643	107	28	29	100%	5.6	14.6%	4.6%	10.1%	5.3%	6.12	5.36	—
2017	27	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	26	26	146	643	107	28	29	100%	5.6	16.6%	4.4%	12.3%	4.5%	6.12	4.80	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	102	420	75	30	8	52%	3.5	15.9%	7.2%	8.7%	1.9%	3.26	3.71	+2.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	15	102	420	75	30	8	52%	3.5	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.9%	3.26	3.53	+2.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	18	110	482	82	34	21	62%	3.8	17.0%	7.1%	10.0%	3.9%	5.65	4.72	+0.9
2019	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	29	18	110	482	82	34	21	62%	3.8	17.0%	7.1%	10.0%	4.4%	5.65	5.02	+0.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	79	343	61	22	12	65%	4.0	15.8%	7.0%	8.8%	3.1%	5.81	4.38	+0.9
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	79	343	61	22	12	65%	4.0	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	3.5%	5.81	4.37	+1.0
2023	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	4	64	282	51	20	10	9%	1.4	15.6%	6.4%	9.2%	3.7%	4.95	4.63	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	4	64	282	51	20	10	9%	1.4	18.1%	7.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.95	4.48	—
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	94	418	62	24	8	65%	4.7	13.2%	5.4%	7.8%	2.1%	4.96	3.82	+1.8
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	94	418	62	24	8	65%	4.7	13.2%	5.4%	7.8%	2.1%	4.96	3.82	+1.8
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	94	418	62	24	8	65%	4.7	14.8%	5.7%	9.1%	1.9%	4.96	3.65	+2.0
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	87	396	66	35	16	78%	4.9	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.56	5.01	—
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	87	396	66	35	16	78%	4.9	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.56	5.01	—
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	87	396	66	35	16	78%	4.9	16.7%	8.8%	7.8%	4.0%	5.56	5.17	—
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	19	91	13	8	5	50%	2.4	12.9%	6.2%	6.6%	5.1%	8.53	5.58	-0.0
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	19	91	13	8	5	50%	2.4	12.9%	6.2%	6.6%	5.1%	8.53	5.58	-0.0
2026	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	19	91	13	8	5	50%	2.4	14.3%	8.8%	5.5%	5.5%	8.53	6.42	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	32	207	932	142	65	39	55%	3.6	15.2%	7.0%	8.3%	4.2%	6.48	5.12	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	TB	7	7	43	182	25	12	6	100%	6.1	13.8%	6.3%	7.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	TB	5	5	29	122	15	9	5	100%	5.8	12.7%	7.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.40	0.0
2028	38	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	25	106	13	7	4	100%	6.2	12.7%	7.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.40	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	36	232	1037	155	72	43	58%	3.7	15.0%	7.0%	8.0%	4.1%	6.34	5.00	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		53	31	200	894	134	62	37	58%	3.7	15.0%	7.0%	8.0%	4.1%	6.34	5.00	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		234	140	894	3914	605	238	141	60%	3.8	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.6%	5.34	4.54	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	876	135	53	32	60%	3.8	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.6%	5.34	4.54	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 19 IPFIP 5.24 → 5.58 (+0.34)K% 14.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.94%	—	×0.860	12.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×0.900	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.60%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.24 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 76 IPFIP 5.37 → 5.27 (−0.10)K% 16.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.99%	—	×0.860	13.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×0.900	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.183	×1.100	4.32%

Result: FIP 5.37 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 11 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.26 (+0.49)K% 21.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.100	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.043	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 68 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.30 (+0.20)K% 16.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.72%	—	×0.860	14.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.35%	—	×0.900	4.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.001	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 64 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.63 (+0.21)K% 18.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.09%	—	×0.860	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×0.900	6.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.052	×1.100	3.71%

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 70 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.38 (+0.31)K% 18.0% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.00%	—	×0.880	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.048	×1.100	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 99 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.71 (+0.20)K% 18.0% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.05%	—	×0.880	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.050	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.124	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 146 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.36 (+0.64)K% 16.6% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.64%	—	×0.880	14.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.050	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.51%	÷0.933	×1.100	5.32%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Brooks (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.40	12.7%	5.6%	29	+0.43	—	—	—
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	59
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	50
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	44
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	43
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	38
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	37
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	36
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	35
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	35
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	34
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	34
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	31
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	31
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	30
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	30
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	28
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	28
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	28
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	26
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	25

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	14.8%	6.9%	1.56	6.10
Edgar Gonzalez ('13)	1.8	61	14.3%	7.8%	1.59	5.92
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Adam Bernero ('06)	1.9	75	14.7%	7.9%	1.39	5.91
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*)	1.5	61	18.1%*	8.0%*	1.79*	5.46*