Tyler Uberstine

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+BOS	3	3	5	1.93	1.17	30.0%	5.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 1.20
2025	26	MIX2 levels	25	21	121	3.58	3.79	26.9%	8.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.27
2026	27	MIX3 levels	34	4	59	3.20	2.96	28.2%	8.7%	1.1	K 23.9% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.98
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	37	0	39	4.15	4.15	22.4%	7.2%	0.2
2028PROJ73% MLB	29	MLBBOS	39	0	41	4.21	4.26	22.3%	7.7%	0.1
2029PROJ78% MLB	30	MLBBOS	39	0	41	4.34	4.43	22.0%	8.1%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsEdwin Quirarte (age 28) · Connor Schultz (age 25) · Nelson Gonzalez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%22.4%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	5	1	8	30	8	1	0	20%	1.5	26.7%	3.3%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.27	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	5	1	8	30	8	1	0	20%	1.5	26.7%	3.3%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.40	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	92	388	101	35	7	71%	4.4	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.6%	3.83	4.19	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	92	388	101	35	7	71%	4.4	26.0%	9.0%	17.0%	1.8%	3.83	3.03	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.20	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.20	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.17	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	22.8%	7.4%	15.4%	3.9%	3.58	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	22.8%	7.4%	15.4%	3.9%	3.58	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	26.9%	8.0%	18.8%	3.5%	3.58	3.79	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	4	59	241	68	21	5	12%	1.7	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	1.7%	3.20	2.98	+1.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	4	59	241	68	21	5	12%	1.7	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	1.7%	3.20	2.98	+1.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	4	59	241	68	21	5	12%	1.7	28.2%	8.7%	19.5%	2.1%	3.20	2.96	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	3	11	2	1	1	0%	2.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.38	7.60	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	37	0	39	165	37	12	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	56	237	53	18	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.1%	4.25	4.30	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	50	0	53	223	49	18	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.3%	4.39	4.48	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	39	0	41	173	39	13	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.1%	4.21	4.26	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	39	0	41	173	38	14	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.3%	4.34	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	0	85	358	79	28	12	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.9%	14.1%	3.3%	4.25	4.08	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	844	186	66	28	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.9%	14.1%	3.3%	4.25	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		88	44	284	1189	263	99	34	50%	3.2	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	2.9%	3.49	3.86	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	31	200	838	186	70	24	50%	3.2	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	2.9%	3.49	3.86	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 49 IPFIP 2.67 → 2.98 (+0.30)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.59%	—	×0.900	7.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.37 (+1.27)K% 34.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.770	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.150	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 91 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.80 (+0.45)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.860	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.49%	—	×0.900	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	4.10%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.58%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 30 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.55 (+0.58)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.810	23.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.100	3.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.119	×1.200	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 5 IPFIP 1.20 → 1.88 (+0.68)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.150	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.043	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.20 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 58 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.34 (+1.31)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.740	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×1.180	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.873	×1.300	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 33 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.93 (+0.89)K% 25.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.36%	—	×0.770	19.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×1.150	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.996	×1.250	1.82%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 8 IPFIP 1.27 → 2.10 (+0.83)K% 26.7% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.680	18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.250	4.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.951	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.27 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Uberstine (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.39	22.1%	14.3%	109	+0.24	—	—	—
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	71
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	70
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	70
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	68
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	66
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	66
Brian Sweeney R 2004 · 3.03 FIP	30	SW	3.03	15.9%	3.2%	1.6%	.380	4.26	9.7%	5.1%	56	+1.23	3.03	108	66
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	65
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	65
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	65
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	63
Tristan Beck R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP-	4.17	21.7%	5.1%	4.1%	.348	3.66	19.5%	11.3%	147	-0.51	3.48	501	63
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	63
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	63
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	62
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	62
Ryan Glynn R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	29	SW	5.23	15.7%	7.9%	4.5%	.234	5.98	18.3%	9.8%	17	+0.75	5.23	226	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.2%	7.7%	1.26	4.25
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*