Tyler Uberstine
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP4.84
SIERA4.85
K%23.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.2%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†5555
CH+0.5 (11%)
CT (20%)
SI (22%)
SL (24%)
FB-0.8 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 101 | 35 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 4.15 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 25 | 21 | 121 | 510 | 137 | 41 | 18 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 3.58 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 1 | 12 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.92 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 245 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 117 | 45 | 18 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 113 | 44 | 17 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 109 | 43 | 17 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 104 | 42 | 17 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 98 | 41 | 16 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 93 | 40 | 16 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 87 | 39 | 16 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 80 | 37 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 73 | 36 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 41 | 237 | 1002 | 219 | 93 | 31 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 4.11 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 35 | 200 | 846 | 185 | 78 | 26 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Uberstine (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.62 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 352 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 85 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 84 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 83 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 82 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 82 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 81 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 81 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 81 |
| John Gorman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.99 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 141 | 80 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 80 |
| Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $7M | $24M | +$16M | ||