Tyler Uberstine
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%22.6%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH+0.5 (11%)
CT (20%)
SI (22%)
SL (24%)
FB-0.8 (44%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 26.7% | 3.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.27 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 26.7% | 3.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.40 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 101 | 35 | 7 | 71% | 4.4 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 4.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 101 | 35 | 7 | 71% | 4.4 | 26.0% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 1.8% | 3.83 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.6 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.20 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.6 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.17 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 121 | 510 | 137 | 41 | 18 | 84% | 4.8 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 3.58 | 4.38 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 121 | 510 | 137 | 41 | 18 | 84% | 4.8 | 26.9% | 8.0% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 3.58 | 3.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 15 | 2 | 34 | 143 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 13% | 2.3 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 3.42 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 88 | 372 | 93 | 32 | 12 | — | — | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 57 | 240 | 93 | 32 | 12 | — | — | 38.6% | 13.5% | 25.1% | 5.1% | 6.45 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 84 | 357 | 80 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 81 | 341 | 75 | 30 | 13 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 76 | 320 | 76 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 6.9 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.65 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 71 | 299 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 10 | 66 | 277 | 63 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 4.3% | 4.94 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 77 | 325 | 72 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 72 | 304 | 72 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.66 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 10 | 67 | 283 | 66 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 4.77 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 4.3% | 4.95 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 54 | 415 | 1753 | 400 | 151 | 68 | 50% | 3.9 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 4.71 | 4.40 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 26 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 73 | 33 | 51% | 3.9 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 4.71 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 42 | 259 | 1091 | 243 | 100 | 34 | 61% | 3.8 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 4.11 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 32 | 200 | 842 | 188 | 77 | 27 | 61% | 3.8 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Uberstine (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 3.6% | — | 4.68 | 22.8% | 14.3% | 241 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 78 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 77 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 76 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 74 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 73 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 71 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 71 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 71 |
| Parker Curry R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.07 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 256 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 70 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 70 |
| Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 70 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 69 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 69 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 69 |
| Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.70 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 3.90 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 359 | +0.20 | 3.01 | 603 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 72 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 1.49 | 4.71 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |