Tyler Uberstine — OGILVIE

Tyler Uberstine P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%21.6%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5045

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5055

CH+0.5 (11%)

CT (20%)

SI (22%)

SL (24%)

FB-0.8 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	5	1	8	30	8	1	0	20%	1.5	26.7%	3.3%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.27	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	5	1	8	30	8	1	0	20%	1.5	26.7%	3.3%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.40	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	92	388	101	35	7	71%	4.4	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.6%	3.83	4.19	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	92	388	101	35	7	71%	4.4	26.0%	9.0%	17.0%	1.8%	3.83	3.03	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.20	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.20	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.93	1.17	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.9%	3.58	4.32	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.9%	3.58	4.32	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	121	510	137	41	18	84%	4.8	26.9%	8.0%	18.8%	3.5%	3.58	3.79	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	3	11	2	1	1	0%	2.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.38	7.60	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	4	55	230	65	21	5	12%	1.7	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	1.8%	3.42	3.16	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	4	55	230	65	21	5	12%	1.7	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	1.8%	3.42	3.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	BOS	4	1	7	32	11	3	1	25%	1.8	34.4%	9.4%	25.0%	3.1%	5.14	3.10	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	BOS	27	3	46	187	52	17	3	11%	1.7	27.8%	9.1%	18.7%	1.6%	3.15	2.78	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	BOS	1	0	3	11	2	1	1	0%	2.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.38	7.71	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BOS	1	0	3	11	2	1	1	0%	2.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.38	7.71	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	61	255	70	23	6	—	—	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	2.3%	3.52	3.28	+1.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	9	36	70	23	6	—	—	195.6%	63.3%	132.3%	16.3%	25.25	3.54	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	80	0	84	357	77	26	13	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.6%	4.53	4.56	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	77	0	81	341	72	26	13	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.7%	4.61	4.67	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	72	0	76	320	74	23	12	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	3.9%	4.57	4.55	0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	71	299	67	22	12	0%	1.1	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	4.1%	4.68	4.75	-0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	62	0	66	277	61	22	12	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.9%	14.3%	4.3%	4.86	4.98	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	76	0	80	338	73	25	12	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.51	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	73	0	77	325	69	25	12	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.6%	4.56	4.62	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	69	0	72	304	70	21	11	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	3.8%	4.52	4.50	0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	64	21	11	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	4.0%	4.62	4.69	-0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	59	0	62	262	58	21	11	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.9%	14.3%	4.2%	4.80	4.92	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		348	0	367	1549	341	115	59	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.8%	4.58	4.28	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	63	32	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.8%	4.58	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		86	44	280	1178	256	99	34	51%	3.3	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	3.54	3.92	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	31	200	841	183	71	24	51%	3.3	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	3.54	3.92	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Uberstine (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	21.6%	7.1%	3.5%	—	4.59	21.9%	14.6%	241	+0.09	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	77
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	76
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	75
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	74
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	74
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	74
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	27	SW	4.71	19.2%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.84	19.4%	11.6%	170	-0.87	3.48	495	73
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	73
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	73
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	76	22.0%	7.4%	1.48	4.62
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97