Tristan Beck
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.80
FIP3.99
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+6.0 (50%)
FB+3.0 (33%)
CU (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Braves | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 36.8% | 10.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.32 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Braves | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 36.8% | 10.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.39 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 81 | 345 | 90 | 31 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 1.4% | 3.98 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 81 | 345 | 90 | 31 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 17.1% | 0.9% | 3.98 | 2.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 10 | 37 | 171 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 83% | 3.1 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 6.27 | 5.19 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 10 | 37 | 171 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 83% | 3.1 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 6.27 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 111 | 486 | 116 | 36 | 11 | 96% | 4.8 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 5.25 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 111 | 486 | 116 | 36 | 11 | 96% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 5.25 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 9 | 111 | 467 | 94 | 33 | 19 | 21% | 2.6 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 4.38 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 9 | 111 | 467 | 94 | 33 | 19 | 21% | 2.6 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.38 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 30 | 132 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 50% | 2.5 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 4.55 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 30 | 132 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 50% | 2.5 | 23.5% | 5.3% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 4.55 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 88 | 358 | 79 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.56 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 88 | 358 | 79 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.33 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 1 | 41 | 180 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 1.7% | 4.83 | 3.52 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 27 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 70 | 302 | 62 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 3.71 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 40 | 167 | 62 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 37.0% | 14.8% | 22.2% | 3.9% | 7.78 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 5 | 342 | 1431 | 258 | 100 | 44 | 2% | 1.4 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.16 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 3 | 200 | 838 | 151 | 59 | 26 | 2% | 1.4 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 187 | 66 | 504 | 2158 | 437 | 183 | 60 | 35% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 3.99 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 26 | 200 | 856 | 173 | 73 | 24 | 35% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tristan Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.90 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 152 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 78 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 77 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 76 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 74 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 71 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 71 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 71 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 70 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 69 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.45 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 135 | 68 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 68 |
| Donovan Hand R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 67 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 67 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 1.28 | 4.63 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |