Tristan Beck — OGILVIE

Tristan Beck P Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA3.92

FIP4.09

K%19.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p109.4%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

SL+6.0 (50%)

FB+3.0 (33%)

CU (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	3	1	5	19	7	2	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	10.5%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.32	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	3	1	5	19	7	2	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	10.5%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.39	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	81	345	90	31	3	100%	5.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	1.3%	3.98	3.48	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	81	345	90	31	3	100%	5.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	0.9%	3.98	2.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	10	37	171	39	14	5	83%	3.1	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	3.7%	6.27	5.00	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	10	37	171	39	14	5	83%	3.1	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	2.9%	6.27	3.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	111	486	116	36	11	96%	4.8	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	2.6%	5.25	3.75	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	111	486	116	36	11	96%	4.8	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.3%	5.25	3.27	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	111	467	94	33	19	21%	2.6	19.2%	6.8%	12.4%	4.3%	4.38	4.71	-0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	111	467	94	33	19	21%	2.6	19.2%	6.8%	12.4%	4.3%	4.38	4.71	-0.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	9	111	467	94	33	19	21%	2.6	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	4.1%	4.38	4.52	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	21.3%	5.1%	16.2%	4.1%	4.55	4.20	+0.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	21.3%	5.1%	16.2%	4.1%	4.55	4.20	+0.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	23.5%	5.3%	18.2%	3.8%	4.55	3.91	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	20.3%	7.7%	12.5%	2.1%	3.89	3.53	+1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	20.3%	7.7%	12.5%	2.1%	3.89	3.53	+1.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.0%	3.89	3.33	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	5	172	717	129	44	21	6%	2.1	18.0%	6.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.19	3.96	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	38	2	53	235	46	24	5	5%	1.4	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	2.3%	5.30	4.16	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	38	2	53	235	46	24	5	5%	1.4	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	2.3%	5.30	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	SF	27	2	39	171	40	19	3	7%	1.4	23.4%	11.1%	12.3%	1.8%	4.66	3.50	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	SF	11	0	14	64	6	5	2	0%	1.3	9.4%	7.8%	1.6%	3.1%	7.07	5.01	-0.1
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	SF	11	0	14	64	6	5	2	0%	1.3	9.4%	7.8%	1.6%	3.1%	7.07	5.01	-0.1
ROS	30	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.0%	3.92	4.09	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	SF	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.0%	3.92	4.09	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	58	256	50	26	6	—	—	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	2.2%	5.18	4.15	+0.3
FULL	30	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	19	80	50	26	6	—	—	62.5%	32.0%	30.5%	7.0%	15.75	5.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SF	52	0	55	231	40	18	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.79	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	SF	48	0	51	214	35	17	7	0%	1.1	16.4%	8.2%	8.3%	3.5%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	SF	50	0	52	220	38	17	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.79	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	SF	46	0	48	203	33	17	7	0%	1.0	16.4%	8.2%	8.3%	3.5%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	5	277	1161	204	79	36	3%	1.5	17.6%	6.8%	10.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.17	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		132	4	200	839	147	57	26	3%	1.5	17.6%	6.8%	10.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		196	67	516	2213	434	182	62	34%	2.6	19.6%	8.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.02	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	26	200	858	168	71	24	34%	2.6	19.6%	8.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.02	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	19.8%	7.3%	3.0%	—	4.91	16.8%	8.9%	106	+0.53	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	78
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	77
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	76
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	73
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	71
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	71
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	71
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	71
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	70
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	70
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	70
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	69
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	68
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	17.8%	7.7%	1.25	4.57
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45