Tristan Beck
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.12
FIP4.25
xFIP4.49
SIERA4.24
K%20.8%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%13.0%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p1917.7%
xwOBA vs
p380.326
SL+6.0 (50%)
FB+3.0 (33%)
CU (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Braves | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 16 | 16 | 81 | 345 | 90 | 31 | 3 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.3% | 3.98 | 3.47 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 12 | 10 | 37 | 171 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 6.27 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 22 | 111 | 486 | 116 | 36 | 11 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 5.25 | 3.74 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 42 | 9 | 111 | 467 | 94 | 33 | 19 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.38 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 12 | 6 | 30 | 132 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 50 | 1 | 88 | 358 | 79 | 29 | 7 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.47 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 5 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 18 | — | 18 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 24 | 104 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.85 | 3.28 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 65 | 469 | 2004 | 408 | 167 | 55 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 3.94 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 28 | 200 | 854 | 174 | 71 | 23 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 3.94 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tristan Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.56 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.79 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.62 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 74 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 73 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 73 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.