Tristan Beck

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	12	6	30	4.55	3.91	23.5%	5.3%	0.5	K 21.7% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.17
2025	29	MIX2 levels	50	1	88	3.89	3.33	22.1%	8.1%	1.3	K 20.6% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.50
2026	30	MIX2 levels	42	2	59	4.76	3.71	20.2%	9.7%	0.6	K 17.8% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	31	MLBSF	58	0	61	4.35	4.49	18.4%	8.2%	0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBSF	30	0	31	4.59	4.74	17.6%	8.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBSF	17	0	18	4.85	5.02	16.8%	9.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs42

K%10

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Angel Castro (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.35

FIP4.49

K%18.4%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1018.2%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	3	1	5	19	7	2	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	10.5%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.32	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	3	1	5	19	7	2	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	10.5%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.39	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	81	345	90	31	3	100%	5.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	1.3%	3.98	3.48	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	81	345	90	31	3	100%	5.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	0.9%	3.98	2.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	10	37	171	39	14	5	83%	3.1	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	3.7%	6.27	5.00	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	10	37	171	39	14	5	83%	3.1	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	2.9%	6.27	3.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	111	486	116	36	11	96%	4.8	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	2.6%	5.25	3.75	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	111	486	116	36	11	96%	4.8	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.3%	5.25	3.27	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	111	467	94	33	19	21%	2.6	19.3%	6.8%	12.6%	4.3%	4.38	4.70	-0.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	9	111	467	94	33	19	21%	2.6	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	4.1%	4.38	4.52	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	21.7%	5.1%	16.6%	4.1%	4.55	4.17	+0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	21.7%	5.1%	16.6%	4.1%	4.55	4.17	+0.4
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	30	132	31	7	5	50%	2.5	23.5%	5.3%	18.2%	3.8%	4.55	3.91	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	20.6%	7.7%	12.8%	2.1%	3.89	3.50	+1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	20.6%	7.7%	12.8%	2.1%	3.89	3.50	+1.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	88	358	79	29	7	2%	1.8	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.0%	3.89	3.33	+1.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	59	258	52	25	5	5%	1.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.1%	4.76	3.89	+0.5
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	59	258	52	25	5	5%	1.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.1%	4.76	3.89	+0.5
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	2	59	258	52	25	5	5%	1.4	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	1.9%	4.76	3.71	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	5	177	736	132	44	21	6%	2.1	17.9%	6.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.08	3.90	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SF	58	0	61	258	48	21	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.2%	10.3%	2.8%	4.35	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SF	31	0	33	139	25	12	4	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.6%	9.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.74	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	SF	18	0	18	78	13	7	3	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.0%	7.8%	3.3%	4.85	5.02	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	31	131	23	11	4	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.6%	9.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.74	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	SF	17	0	18	76	13	7	3	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.0%	7.8%	3.3%	4.85	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	5	226	943	168	62	27	4%	1.7	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.21	4.03	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		117	4	200	836	149	55	24	4%	1.7	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.21	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		200	67	522	2236	444	183	62	34%	2.6	19.8%	8.2%	11.7%	2.8%	4.57	3.98	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	26	200	857	170	70	24	34%	2.6	19.8%	8.2%	11.7%	2.8%	4.57	3.98	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 40 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.65 (+0.24)K% 24.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.57%	—	×0.860	21.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×0.900	10.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 31 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.09 (+0.23)K% 30.2% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.16%	—	×0.860	25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×0.900	9.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.938	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 14 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.48 (+0.48)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.860	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×0.900	4.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.010	×1.100	5.02%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 26 IPFIP 7.10 → 7.39 (+0.29)K% 23.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.860	19.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.39%	—	×0.900	11.15%
HR / BF /BF	7.96%	÷1.057	×1.100	8.29%

Result: FIP 7.10 → 7.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 97 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.75 (+0.42)K% 22.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.72%	—	×0.880	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×1.050	7.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.989	×1.100	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 14 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.75 (+0.94)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.810	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.86%	—	×1.100	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.929	×1.200	2.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 18 IPFIP 5.11 → 6.35 (+1.24)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.810	16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.100	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷0.923	×1.200	6.34%

Result: FIP 5.11 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Giants Black · 12 IPFIP 1.91 → 3.05 (+1.14)K% 29.8% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.82%	—	×0.680	20.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.250	13.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.222	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	18.4%	8.2%	2.8%	—	4.84	17.3%	8.6%	52	+0.35	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	77
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	71
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	70
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	70
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	581	70
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	70
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	69
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	69
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	69
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	69
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	69
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	68
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	68
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	68
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	67
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	66
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	17.9%	7.1%	1.12	4.24
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Max Leon ('73-'78, 2 WAR*)	1.6	62	18.3%*	7.1%*	1.26*	3.96*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Nabil Crismatt ('25)	1.1	70	20.6%	7.0%	1.15	3.71