Nabil Crismatt
P
Reno Aces
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 166 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.79
FIP5.11
K%14.0%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP166
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.1
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
FB+1.4 (40%)
SI (24%)
CU (16%)
CT (7%)
CH-3.4 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 12 | 8 | 62 | 254 | 63 | 12 | 6 | 67% | 5.2 | 16.9% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 2.90 | 4.24 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 12 | 8 | 62 | 254 | 63 | 12 | 6 | 67% | 5.2 | 24.8% | 4.7% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 2.90 | 2.91 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 35 | 132 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 80% | 6.9 | 21.7% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 1.0% | 1.82 | 2.09 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 35 | 132 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 80% | 6.9 | 29.5% | 2.3% | 27.3% | 1.5% | 1.82 | 1.86 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 26 | 25 | 146 | 640 | 142 | 33 | 17 | 96% | 5.6 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 4.63 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 26 | 25 | 146 | 640 | 142 | 33 | 17 | 96% | 5.6 | 22.2% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.35 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 144 | 640 | 140 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.32 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 144 | 640 | 140 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 3.77 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 130 | 550 | 157 | 32 | 21 | 78% | 4.8 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 5.0% | 4.49 | 4.62 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 130 | 550 | 157 | 32 | 21 | 78% | 4.8 | 28.5% | 5.8% | 22.7% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 3.52 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 85 | 366 | 77 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 3.60 | 3.87 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 85 | 366 | 77 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.63 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 71 | 293 | 70 | 21 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 2.92 | 3.14 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 71 | 293 | 70 | 21 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 3.11 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 72 | 334 | 67 | 30 | 17 | 29% | 2.3 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 7.12 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 72 | 334 | 67 | 30 | 17 | 29% | 2.3 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 7.12 | 5.56 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 86 | 388 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 50% | 2.7 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 5.55 | 3.89 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 86 | 388 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 50% | 2.7 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 5.55 | 3.70 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 136 | 579 | 95 | 34 | 21 | 89% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 3.89 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 136 | 579 | 95 | 34 | 21 | 89% | 4.9 | 16.4% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 3.89 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 158 | 0 | 166 | 702 | 98 | 45 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 5.11 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 146 | 0 | 154 | 649 | 85 | 44 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 134 | 0 | 141 | 596 | 73 | 43 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 32 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 41 | 24 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 250 | 6 | 345 | 1473 | 259 | 99 | 50 | 2% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 3 | 200 | 853 | 150 | 57 | 29 | 2% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 295 | 136 | 975 | 4207 | 796 | 293 | 153 | 46% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.39 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 863 | 163 | 60 | 31 | 46% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nabil Crismatt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | — | 5.50 | 12.8% | 5.8% | 295 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 74 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 73 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 69 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 67 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 67 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 66 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 66 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 66 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 65 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 64 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.98 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 78 | +0.02 | 2.86 | 306 | 64 |
| A.J. Morris R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.92 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 123 | 63 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 63 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 62 |
| Paolo Espino R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.33 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .348 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 14.7% | 202 | +0.14 | 3.45 | 933 | 62 |
| Paul Clemens R 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 62 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 62 |
| Jake Buchanan R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.49 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 646 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 154 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 1.51 | 5.11 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |