Hayden Minton — OGILVIE

Hayden Minton P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%18.8%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	12	2	4	1	0%	0.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	8.3%	27.00	10.49	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	12	2	4	1	0%	0.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	8.3%	27.00	10.49	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	12	2	4	1	0%	0.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	8.3%	27.00	18.85	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	1.9%	4.65	4.04	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	1.9%	4.65	4.04	—
2024	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	1.6%	4.65	3.06	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.2%	3.22	4.16	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.2%	3.22	4.16	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	2.2%	3.22	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	19	95	399	103	41	13	63%	3.2	19.7%	11.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.59	4.97	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	19	95	399	103	41	13	63%	3.2	19.7%	11.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.59	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	DET	12	11	51	211	57	21	9	92%	4.3	27.0%	10.0%	17.1%	4.3%	3.86	4.42	—
2026	25	AA RAW	DET	10	8	35	147	33	15	2	80%	3.5	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	1.4%	3.09	3.24	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	DET	8	0	9	41	13	5	2	0%	1.1	31.7%	12.2%	19.5%	4.9%	4.00	4.64	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	27	5	2	1	100%	6.4	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	102	426	108	43	14	—	—	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	3.2%	3.65	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	93	394	76	33	12	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	92	388	76	33	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.58	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	377	74	32	12	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.65	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	85	360	70	32	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.8%	10.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	80	338	64	31	12	100%	6.2	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	33	14	5	100%	5.7	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.50	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	48	21	7	100%	5.8	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	67	283	55	24	9	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.58	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	56	26	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	55	27	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	303	1280	248	112	40	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.7%	10.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.27	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	74	26	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.7%	10.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		78	58	290	1254	244	131	38	74%	3.7	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.0%	3.91	4.44	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	40	200	864	168	90	26	74%	3.7	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.0%	3.91	4.44	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Minton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	18.8%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.60	19.5%	10.9%	275	-0.03	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	85
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	81
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	81
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	80
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	80
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	79
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	85	19.3%	8.7%	1.23	4.65
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10