Hayden Minton

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#955ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ADET	23	21	93	4.65	3.06	26.6%	10.4%	—	K 19.7% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.04
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	18	101	3.22	2.96	25.1%	6.1%	—	K 19.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.16
2026	25	MIX3 levels	30	19	95	3.59	4.00	25.8%	10.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	26	MLBDET	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	18.9%	9.8%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBDET	4	4	27	4.73	4.74	19.2%	9.6%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBDET	7	7	40	4.74	4.77	19.3%	9.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · David Griffin (age 26) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%18.9%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	12	2	4	1	0%	0.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	8.3%	27.00	10.49	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	12	2	4	1	0%	0.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	8.3%	27.00	18.85	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	1.9%	4.65	4.04	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	1.9%	4.65	4.04	—
2024	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	21	93	433	115	45	7	91%	4.0	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	1.6%	4.65	3.06	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.2%	3.22	4.16	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.2%	3.22	4.16	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	101	410	103	25	9	78%	4.4	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	2.2%	3.22	2.96	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	19	95	399	103	41	13	63%	3.2	19.7%	11.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.59	4.97	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	19	95	399	103	41	13	63%	3.2	19.7%	11.4%	8.4%	3.8%	3.59	4.97	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	19	95	399	103	41	13	63%	3.2	25.8%	10.3%	15.5%	3.3%	3.59	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	75	315	61	30	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.80	4.81	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	283	55	27	9	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.82	4.85	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	61	258	50	25	9	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.4%	4.89	4.95	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	61	257	54	24	9	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.6%	4.86	4.84	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	54	227	47	22	9	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.6%	11.0%	3.8%	4.97	5.04	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	27	114	22	11	3	100%	6.8	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.74	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	33	16	5	100%	5.7	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.77	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	43	182	35	18	6	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.81	4.87	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	42	18	7	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.76	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	39	18	7	100%	5.6	20.5%	9.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.88	4.95	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	202	854	170	82	28	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.79	4.45	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	81	28	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.79	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		78	58	290	1254	244	131	38	74%	3.7	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.0%	3.91	4.44	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	40	200	864	168	90	26	74%	3.7	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.0%	3.91	4.44	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 51 IPFIP 4.42 → 5.72 (+1.30)K% 27.0% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.01%	—	×0.770	20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×1.150	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	4.27%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 35 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.88 (+0.64)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.810	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.100	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 9 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.13 (+0.49)K% 31.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.860	27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×0.900	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 69 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.77 (+1.32)K% 24.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.22%	—	×0.770	18.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.150	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.77%	÷0.850	×1.250	4.07%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 31 IPFIP 1.77 → 2.70 (+0.92)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.13%	—	×1.180	4.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.864	×1.300	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 93 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.04 (+0.98)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.740	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×1.180	12.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.099	×1.300	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Minton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	18.9%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.87	19.3%	9.6%	203	+0.04	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	86
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	82
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	81
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	80
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	80
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	79
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	79
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	78
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	78
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	65	19.6%	9.6%	1.30	4.86
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*