Hayden Minton
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.9
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.3%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 21 | 93 | 433 | 115 | 45 | 7 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 4.65 | 4.06 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 23 | 18 | 101 | 410 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 3.22 | 4.21 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 3 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 88 | 37 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 109 | 460 | 99 | 42 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.02 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 96 | 39 | 13 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 99 | 40 | 14 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 99 | 40 | 14 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 96 | 39 | 14 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 93 | 39 | 14 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 100 | 420 | 88 | 38 | 14 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 84 | 37 | 13 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 79 | 36 | 13 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 73 | 35 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 68 | 34 | 12 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 68 | 30 | 12 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 62 | 28 | 12 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 42 | 206 | 901 | 176 | 91 | 25 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 41 | 200 | 873 | 171 | 88 | 24 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Minton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 322 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 91 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 89 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 89 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 89 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 88 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 87 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 87 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 87 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 86 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 86 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 86 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.37 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 179 | +0.05 | 3.69 | 531 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 85 |
| Austin Cates R 2023 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 85 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .274 | 4.00 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.44 | 3.00 | 483 | 85 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 84 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .273 | 3.86 | 23.1% | 15.3% | 135 | -0.61 | 3.35 | 394 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $6M | $24M | +$17M | ||