Hayden Minton
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%18.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 8.3% | 27.00 | 10.49 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 8.3% | 27.00 | 18.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 21 | 93 | 433 | 115 | 45 | 7 | 91% | 4.0 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 4.65 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 21 | 93 | 433 | 115 | 45 | 7 | 91% | 4.0 | 26.6% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 1.6% | 4.65 | 3.06 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 101 | 410 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 78% | 4.4 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 3.22 | 4.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 101 | 410 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 78% | 4.4 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 3.22 | 2.96 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 16 | 15 | 66 | 274 | 69 | 28 | 10 | 94% | 4.1 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.68 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.70 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 131 | 548 | 121 | 51 | 19 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 61 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.27 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 73 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 54 | 261 | 1129 | 219 | 118 | 37 | 84% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 4.59 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 41 | 200 | 865 | 168 | 90 | 28 | 84% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Minton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.64 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 139 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 85 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 81 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 81 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 80 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 79 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 79 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 78 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 78 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 4.95 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.51 | 3.38 | 372 | 78 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 78 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 78 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 78 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.61 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .274 | 3.93 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.32 | 3.00 | 483 | 77 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |