Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 33 | 141 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 78% | 3.7 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 3.78 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 33 | 141 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 78% | 3.7 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 3.78 | 4.03 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 21 | 19 | 103 | 438 | 85 | 35 | 13 | 90% | 4.9 | 14.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 4.25 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 21 | 19 | 103 | 438 | 85 | 35 | 13 | 90% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 25 | 20 | 106 | 477 | 85 | 41 | 17 | 80% | 4.2 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 5.25 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 25 | 20 | 106 | 477 | 85 | 41 | 17 | 80% | 4.2 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 4.74 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 90 | 375 | 63 | 30 | 9 | 79% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 3.29 | 4.84 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 90 | 375 | 63 | 30 | 9 | 79% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.29 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 27 | 18 | 91 | 429 | 55 | 39 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 6.90 | 5.26 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 27 | 18 | 91 | 429 | 55 | 39 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 12.8% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 6.90 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 29 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.0% | 10.7% | -0.7% | 3.3% | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 30 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.0% | 10.9% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 5.77 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 11.5% | 11.1% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 5.82 | 5.93 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 11.0% | 10.9% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 5.77 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 11.5% | 11.1% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 5.82 | 5.93 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 5.80 | 5.51 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 95 | 91 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 5.80 | 5.51 | -0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 79 | 424 | 1860 | 263 | 162 | 63 | 78% | 4.2 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.87 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 877 | 124 | 77 | 30 | 78% | 4.2 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Quezada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.81 | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | — | 5.88 | 11.2% | 0.3% | 125 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| David Fletcher R 2027 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 85 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 83 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 78 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2023 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 78 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 76 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 76 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 72 |
| Caleb Clay R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 71 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 69 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 69 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2029 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 69 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 69 |
| Donn Roach R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.75 | 12.2% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .387 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 455 | 69 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 68 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.12 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 5.0% | .330 | 5.88 | 8.5% | -3.8% | 51 | -0.24 | 3.95 | 489 | 67 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 67 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 1.35 | 5.80 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |