Zach Fruit
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148139vR 130
ERA5.77
FIP5.77
K%15.5%
BB%17.0%
K-BB%-1.4%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 21 | 107 | 450 | 113 | 55 | 7 | 84% | 4.3 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 3.03 | 4.26 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 21 | 107 | 450 | 113 | 55 | 7 | 84% | 4.3 | 25.1% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.03 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 52 | 241 | 52 | 31 | 6 | 93% | 3.7 | 15.4% | 15.6% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 6.10 | 4.83 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 52 | 241 | 52 | 31 | 6 | 93% | 3.7 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 6.10 | 4.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 39 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.5% | 17.0% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 5.77 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 40 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.66 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.7% | 15.9% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.66 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.7% | 15.9% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 39 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 16.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.63 | 5.27 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 140 | 136 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 16.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.63 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 34 | 159 | 691 | 124 | 101 | 13 | 87% | 4.1 | 17.9% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 4.46 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 871 | 156 | 127 | 16 | 87% | 4.1 | 17.9% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Fruit (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.77 | 15.5% | 17.0% | 2.6% | — | 5.66 | 16.5% | 0.4% | 115 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2026 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 82 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 82 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 81 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 74 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.21 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 367 | 73 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 72 |
| Noah Hall R 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.47 | 17.4% | 18.3% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 201 | 72 |
| Brendan Girton R 2024 · 6.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.62 | 16.5% | 17.6% | 4.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 150 | 72 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 72 |
| Andre Jackson R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.51 | 18.8% | 18.0% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.62 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 100 | -0.89 | 3.86 | 459 | 71 |
| Ronald Bolaños R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.33 | 12.8% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 508 | 71 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.46 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .254 | 3.50 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -1.96 | 3.50 | 395 | 71 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 371 | 70 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.27 | 13.1% | 12.9% | 3.0% | .297 | 4.10 | 13.2% | -3.5% | 24 | -1.17 | 4.10 | 218 | 70 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.88 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .296 | 4.31 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 237 | -0.57 | 3.64 | 560 | 69 |
| Alex Blackford R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 69 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.59 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.87 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.28 | 4.39 | 317 | 68 |
| Logan Clayton R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 11.2% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 206 | 68 |
| Ben Meyer R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.32 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 4.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 387 | 68 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.2% | 16.4% | 1.06 | 5.68 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |