Zach Fruit
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.1%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%7.8%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 21 | 107 | 450 | 113 | 55 | 7 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 14 | 13 | 52 | 241 | 52 | 31 | 6 | 15.4% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 6.10 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 43 | 35 | 6 | 18.3% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 5.32 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 43 | 33 | 6 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 43 | 32 | 6 | 19.1% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 43 | 31 | 6 | 19.2% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 41 | 30 | 6 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 39 | 29 | 6 | 18.9% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 37 | 28 | 6 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 35 | 27 | 6 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 17.9% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 30 | 25 | 6 | 17.5% | 14.7% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 27 | 24 | 6 | 17.1% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 5.77 | 5.86 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 34 | 159 | 691 | 124 | 101 | 14 | 17.9% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 4.56 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 871 | 156 | 127 | 18 | 17.9% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Fruit (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.32 | 18.3% | 14.9% | 2.7% | — | 5.20 | 19.0% | 5.0% | 161 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 91 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 89 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | .246 | 4.73 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.15 | 4.58 | 151 | 89 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 88 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 87 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 87 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.36 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.33 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 164 | 87 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.23 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.8% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 171 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.12 | 3.16 | 253 | 85 |
| Matt Lollis R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 85 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 85 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.72 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 203 | 85 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 84 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 84 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.14 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | .331 | 8.65 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.51 | 4.59 | 108 | 83 |
| Trey Haley R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.98 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.8% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 83 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.61 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 116 | 83 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .315 | 5.86 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.59 | 4.27 | 149 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.