Blair Henley — OGILVIE

Blair Henley P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%17.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

SI (18%)

CU (23%)

CT (3%)

CH (5%)

SL-1.0 (13%)

FB-1.1 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	1	1	3	11	4	1	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.18	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	1	1	3	11	4	1	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.43	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	5	3	17	85	23	9	3	60%	3.3	20.8%	12.2%	8.7%	3.9%	7.02	5.02	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	5	3	17	85	23	9	3	60%	3.3	27.1%	10.6%	16.5%	3.5%	7.02	4.30	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	25	17	107	476	106	53	8	68%	4.3	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	1.5%	5.06	3.97	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	25	17	107	476	106	53	8	68%	4.3	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	1.5%	5.06	3.97	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	25	17	107	476	106	53	8	68%	4.3	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	1.7%	5.06	3.58	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	4.0%	6.04	5.46	-0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	4.0%	6.04	5.46	-0.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	20.6%	13.8%	6.7%	3.1%	6.04	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	0	9	0	3	0	100%	0.3	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	135.00	30.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	HOU	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	17.9%	11.8%	6.1%	3.1%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	48	202	37	24	7	100%	6.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	3.3%	5.19	5.26	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	45	189	34	23	7	100%	6.4	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.5%	5.28	5.39	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	18	76	14	9	3	100%	6.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	3.3%	5.19	5.26	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	25	106	19	13	4	100%	6.2	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.5%	5.28	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	43	187	32	24	6	100%	5.3	17.2%	13.0%	4.3%	3.3%	6.26	5.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	880	150	113	28	100%	5.3	17.2%	13.0%	4.3%	3.3%	6.26	5.07	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		50	36	193	898	162	110	24	72%	3.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	2.6%	5.49	4.57	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	929	167	114	24	72%	3.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	2.6%	5.49	4.57	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blair Henley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	17.9%	11.8%	3.1%	—	5.32	18.1%	6.2%	93	+0.15	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	79
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	76
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	74
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	73
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	72
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	71
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	70
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	70
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	70
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.0%	11.9%	1.27	5.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86