Blair Henley

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	24	A+HOU	5	3	17	7.02	4.30	27.1%	10.6%	—	K 20.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.02
2023	26	AAHOU	25	17	107	5.06	3.58	22.3%	11.1%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.97
2024	27	MIX3 levels	19	15	67	6.04	5.06	20.6%	13.8%	0.3	K 17.2% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.41
2025	28	No MLB games played
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	1	1	4	4.88	4.88	19.8%	10.8%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBHOU	2	2	15	4.95	5.03	19.7%	11.0%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	1	1	3	11	4	1	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.18	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	1	1	3	11	4	1	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.43	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	5	3	17	85	23	9	3	60%	3.3	20.8%	12.2%	8.7%	3.9%	7.02	5.02	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	5	3	17	85	23	9	3	60%	3.3	27.1%	10.6%	16.5%	3.5%	7.02	4.30	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	25	17	107	476	106	53	8	68%	4.3	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	1.5%	5.06	3.97	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	25	17	107	476	106	53	8	68%	4.3	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	1.7%	5.06	3.58	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	17.2%	12.4%	4.8%	4.0%	6.04	5.41	-0.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	17.2%	12.4%	4.8%	4.0%	6.04	5.41	-0.0
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	15	67	326	67	45	10	79%	3.5	20.6%	13.8%	6.7%	3.1%	6.04	5.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	0	9	0	3	0	100%	0.3	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	135.00	30.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	19.8%	10.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	40	168	33	19	6	100%	5.7	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.3%	4.95	5.03	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	2	2	15	63	12	7	2	100%	7.5	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.3%	4.95	5.03	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	71	12	10	2	100%	5.0	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	2.9%	7.85	4.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	946	161	134	27	100%	4.3	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	2.9%	7.85	4.99	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		50	36	193	898	164	110	24	72%	3.9	18.2%	12.3%	6.0%	2.6%	5.49	4.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	929	169	114	24	72%	3.9	18.2%	12.3%	6.0%	2.6%	5.49	4.56	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 64 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.41 (+0.45)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.77%	—	×0.900	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 107 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.97 (+0.41)K% 22.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.27%	—	×0.810	18.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.13%	—	×1.100	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.322	×1.200	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 17 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.02 (+0.93)K% 27.1% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.770	20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.150	12.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.131	×1.250	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blair Henley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	19.8%	10.8%	3.1%	—	5.03	19.7%	8.7%	40	+0.15	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	80
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	79
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	73
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	72
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	71
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	71
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	67
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	66
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	66
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	66
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	66
Bryan Brickhouse R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP-	4.78	18.8%	11.7%	3.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	214	65
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	65
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	19.3%	11.5%	1.21	5.43
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*