Blair Henley
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%20.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (18%)
CU (23%)
CT (3%)
CH (5%)
SL-1.0 (13%)
FB-1.1 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.18 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.43 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 5 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 60% | 3.3 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 7.02 | 4.80 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 5 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 60% | 3.3 | 27.1% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 7.02 | 4.30 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 17 | 107 | 476 | 106 | 53 | 8 | 68% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 5.06 | 3.80 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 17 | 107 | 476 | 106 | 53 | 8 | 68% | 4.3 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 5.06 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 15 | 67 | 326 | 67 | 45 | 10 | 79% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.04 | 5.90 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 15 | 67 | 326 | 67 | 45 | 10 | 79% | 3.5 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 6.04 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 202 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 45 | 189 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 41 | 174 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.26 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.26 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 13 | 71 | 305 | 60 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 5.75 | 4.94 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 866 | 170 | 108 | 31 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 5.75 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 36 | 193 | 898 | 165 | 117 | 23 | 72% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 5.49 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 929 | 171 | 121 | 24 | 72% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 5.49 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blair Henley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.2% | — | 5.22 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 134 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 79 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 75 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 70 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 70 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 69 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 69 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 69 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 69 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 68 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 68 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 67 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 67 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 67 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 20.4% | 11.8% | 1.34 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |