Blair Henley
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
xFIP48.24
SIERA11.84
K%20.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%9.1%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
SI (18%)
CU (23%)
CT (3%)
CH (5%)
SL-1.0 (13%)
FB-1.1 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 5 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 7.02 | 4.76 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 17 | 107 | 476 | 106 | 53 | 8 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 5.06 | 4.02 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 19 | 15 | 67 | 326 | 67 | 45 | 10 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 6.04 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 63 | 36 | 10 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 62 | 34 | 9 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 60 | 33 | 9 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 57 | 32 | 9 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 54 | 31 | 9 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 50 | 30 | 9 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 46 | 28 | 9 | 19.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 42 | 27 | 8 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 36 | 193 | 898 | 165 | 117 | 24 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 5.49 | 4.66 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 929 | 171 | 121 | 25 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 5.49 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blair Henley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.96 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 204 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 86 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 85 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 84 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 84 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.90 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.65 | 3.99 | 748 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 83 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 81 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 81 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 80 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 80 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.94 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .292 | 3.68 | 15.5% | 6.9% | 16 | -0.26 | 3.68 | 146 | 79 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.