Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 6 | 33 | 152 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 40% | 2.2 | 12.0% | 13.2% | -1.1% | 4.5% | 5.23 | 6.24 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 6 | 33 | 152 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 40% | 2.2 | 20.4% | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 31 | 4 | 55 | 242 | 61 | 27 | 4 | 13% | 1.8 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 4.58 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 31 | 4 | 55 | 242 | 61 | 27 | 4 | 13% | 1.8 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 4.58 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 26 | 0 | 42 | 207 | 39 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 7.56 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BOS | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 100 | 453 | 84 | 59 | 11 | — | — | 18.6% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 43 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 40 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 37 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.27 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.27 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 0 | 86 | 364 | 67 | 46 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 4.85 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 107 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 10 | 129 | 601 | 98 | 79 | 15 | 14% | 1.8 | 16.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.71 | 4.74 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 15 | 200 | 929 | 152 | 122 | 23 | 14% | 1.8 | 16.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.71 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Song (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 2.6% | — | 5.22 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 153 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 83 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 82 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 82 |
| Drew Hayes R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 81 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 80 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 80 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 80 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 79 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 79 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 79 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 0.9% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 78 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 78 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 18.4% | 12.6% | 1.15 | 5.08 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |