Noah Song

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX4 levels	15	6	33	5.23	4.81	20.4%	14.5%	—	K 12.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 6.06
2025	28	MIX5 levels	31	4	55	4.58	3.30	25.2%	11.2%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.68
2026	29	AAABOS	41	0	73	5.42	3.70	23.7%	12.5%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	30	MLBBOS	7	0	7	4.72	4.72	19.7%	12.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBBOS	17	0	18	4.80	4.88	19.7%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBBOS	21	0	22	4.95	5.07	19.5%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDustin Molleken (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%19.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	6	33	152	31	22	4	40%	2.2	12.0%	13.2%	-1.1%	4.2%	5.23	6.06	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	6	33	152	31	22	4	40%	2.2	20.4%	14.5%	5.9%	2.6%	5.23	4.81	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	31	4	55	242	61	27	4	13%	1.8	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	1.1%	4.58	3.68	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	31	4	55	242	61	27	4	13%	1.8	18.9%	12.2%	6.6%	1.1%	4.58	3.68	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	5 levels	31	4	55	242	61	27	4	13%	1.8	25.2%	11.2%	14.0%	1.7%	4.58	3.30	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	41	0	73	337	80	42	6	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	2.0%	5.42	3.87	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	41	0	73	337	80	42	6	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	2.0%	5.42	3.87	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	41	0	73	337	80	42	6	0%	1.8	23.7%	12.5%	11.3%	1.8%	5.42	3.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BOS	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	2.5%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	47	0	49	208	41	25	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.80	4.88	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	40	167	33	21	5	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.0%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	17	0	18	76	15	9	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.80	4.88	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	0	22	93	18	12	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.0%	4.95	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	169	33	21	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	105	25	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		87	10	161	731	133	87	16	11%	1.8	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	2.2%	5.10	4.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	12	200	910	165	109	20	11%	1.8	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	2.2%	5.10	4.26	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 73 IPFIP 3.65 → 3.87 (+0.22)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.74%	—	×0.860	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.46%	—	×0.900	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 43 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.68 (+0.56)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.810	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.119	×1.200	1.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 5 IPFIP 7.17 → 7.72 (+0.55)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×0.900	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	7.41%	÷0.984	×1.100	8.28%

Result: FIP 7.17 → 7.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 22 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.06 (+1.11)K% 15.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.770	12.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×1.150	13.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.931	×1.250	4.20%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 5 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.45 (+1.16)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.740	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×1.180	25.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Song (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	19.7%	12.2%	2.5%	—	4.96	19.6%	7.3%	89	+0.24	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	88
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	78
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	78
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	77
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	77
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	76
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	76
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	75
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	75
Tyler Yates R 2008 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	19.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.293	5.06	16.1%	5.4%	12	+1.16	3.23	248	74
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	19.6%	12.3%	1.05	4.80
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57