Javi Rivera
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
K%22.7%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 93 | 372 | 111 | 25 | 8 | 67% | 3.9 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 93 | 372 | 111 | 25 | 8 | 67% | 3.9 | 29.8% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 2.2% | 3.29 | 2.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 10 | 9 | 43 | 186 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 90% | 4.3 | 14.9% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.89 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 10 | 9 | 43 | 186 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 90% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 12 | 12 | 51 | 220 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 0.7% | 4.09 | 2.72 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 12 | 12 | 51 | 220 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 0.9% | 4.09 | 2.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 12 | 12 | 48 | 225 | 38 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.0% | 14.5% | -0.5% | 6.7% | 5.21 | 7.44 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 82 | 369 | 71 | 42 | 16 | — | — | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 6.12 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 3.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 34 | 142 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.04 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 49 | 235 | 1003 | 190 | 101 | 33 | 84% | 4.0 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.61 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 42 | 200 | 855 | 162 | 86 | 29 | 84% | 4.0 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javi Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 97 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 83 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .362 | 5.50 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.94 | 2.78 | 181 | 79 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 77 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 77 |
| Stephen Fife R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 77 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 76 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 76 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 76 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 75 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 74 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 73 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 72 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 72 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 72 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 72 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 72 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 72 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.14 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .299 | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.7% | 91 | +0.90 | 3.14 | 230 | 72 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 33 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 1.14 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |