Javi Rivera — OGILVIE

Javi Rivera P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%21.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	93	372	111	25	8	67%	3.9	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.9%	3.29	3.78	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	93	372	111	25	8	67%	3.9	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	2.2%	3.29	2.64	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	9	43	186	36	18	4	90%	4.3	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.8%	4.01	4.80	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	9	43	186	36	18	4	90%	4.3	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.8%	4.01	4.80	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	10	9	43	186	36	18	4	90%	4.3	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.2%	4.01	3.90	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	12	12	51	220	62	16	2	100%	4.2	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	0.9%	4.09	2.81	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	12	12	51	220	62	16	2	100%	4.2	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	0.9%	4.09	2.81	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	12	12	51	220	62	16	2	100%	4.2	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	0.9%	4.09	2.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	22	22	94	437	75	49	27	100%	4.3	14.1%	12.4%	1.7%	7.6%	6.63	7.67	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	22	22	94	437	75	49	27	100%	4.3	14.1%	12.4%	1.7%	7.6%	6.63	7.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	CIN	2	2	6	28	4	3	1	100%	3.0	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	3.6%	3.00	5.21	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	20	20	88	409	71	46	26	100%	4.4	17.4%	11.2%	6.1%	6.4%	6.88	6.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	90	381	82	34	11	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	370	79	33	11	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.46	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	353	75	32	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	79	332	76	29	11	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.48	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	73	310	69	28	11	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.61	4.68	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	287	63	27	11	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.8%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	34	144	31	13	4	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.52	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	52	220	47	20	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.0%	12.3%	3.2%	4.56	4.59	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	53	23	8	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.72	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	62	262	60	23	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	3.6%	4.64	4.63	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	58	23	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.9%	4.77	4.84	+0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	55	23	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	328	1383	303	125	50	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.70	4.37	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	76	31	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.70	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		68	59	280	1215	220	122	51	87%	4.1	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	4.2%	4.66	5.16	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	42	200	868	157	87	37	87%	4.1	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	4.2%	4.66	5.16	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javi Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	21.4%	9.0%	2.8%	—	4.47	21.3%	12.3%	262	+0.11	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	79
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	78
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	73
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	72
Logan Workman R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	20.9%	8.4%	2.8%	.341	4.10	19.7%	12.0%	396	+0.16	3.83	573	72
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	72
Michael Peoples R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	26	SP	3.75	17.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.313	3.96	17.8%	12.8%	145	+0.21	3.75	577	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	21.8%	9.0%	1.25	4.51
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04