River Ryan

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	26	24	104	3.80	3.56	24.6%	10.3%	—	K 19.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.14
2024	25	MIX4 levels	12	12	45	1.81	2.59	28.4%	9.7%	1.6	K 23.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.18
2026	27	MIX2 levels	12	12	45	4.37	2.42	26.6%	6.0%	1.7	K 22.7% · BB 4.6% · FIP 2.44
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	15	15	89	3.84	3.65	24.0%	6.6%	1.9
2028PROJ79% MLB	29	MLBDET	14	14	87	3.82	3.81	23.2%	7.0%	1.6
2029PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBDET	14	14	82	3.96	4.04	22.4%	7.3%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.354First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$3M2031Ext$4M2032Ext$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs55

K%50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Andy Ferguson (age 27) · Stephen Fife (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 86

ERA3.84

FIP3.65

K%24.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%17.4%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.354 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$36M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	48	201	70	21	4	87%	3.2	26.1%	12.2%	13.9%	2.3%	2.45	3.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	48	201	70	21	4	87%	3.2	34.8%	10.4%	24.4%	2.0%	2.45	2.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	104	448	110	46	10	92%	4.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	2.1%	3.80	4.14	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	104	448	110	46	10	92%	4.0	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	1.5%	1.81	3.18	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	1.5%	1.81	3.18	+1.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	28.4%	9.7%	18.8%	1.1%	1.81	2.59	+1.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	45	199	53	12	3	100%	3.8	22.7%	4.6%	18.2%	1.2%	4.37	2.44	+1.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	45	199	53	12	3	100%	3.8	22.7%	4.6%	18.2%	1.2%	4.37	2.44	+1.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	45	199	53	12	3	100%	3.8	26.6%	6.0%	20.6%	1.5%	4.37	2.42	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	25	102	24	12	2	100%	4.1	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	2.0%	1.82	3.67	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	15	15	89	376	90	25	9	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.6%	17.4%	2.5%	3.84	3.65	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	110	463	108	32	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.87	+2.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	98	413	93	30	12	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.3%	15.1%	2.9%	4.03	4.11	+1.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	87	367	80	28	11	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	3.1%	4.22	4.34	+1.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	320	67	26	11	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	3.4%	4.45	4.60	+0.7
2032	33	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	272	54	23	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.5%	11.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.88	+0.4
2033	34	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	54	226	43	20	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.99	5.18	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	87	367	85	26	9	100%	6.2	23.2%	7.0%	16.3%	2.6%	3.82	3.81	+1.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	82	346	78	25	10	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.3%	15.1%	2.8%	3.96	4.04	+1.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	76	321	70	25	10	100%	5.8	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	3.0%	4.15	4.27	+0.9
2031	32	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	68	287	60	23	9	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.37	4.52	+0.6
2032	33	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	59	249	50	21	9	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.5%	11.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.79	+0.4
2033	34	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	38	18	8	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.8%	4.90	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	443	1869	404	150	56	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.10	3.94	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	843	182	68	25	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.10	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		65	61	242	1024	225	103	19	94%	3.7	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	1.9%	3.27	3.56	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	50	200	846	186	85	16	94%	3.7	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	1.9%	3.27	3.56	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 41 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.44 (+0.31)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.860	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×0.900	4.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 16 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.07 (+0.41)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.79%	—	×0.860	24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.896	×1.100	1.86%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 6 IPFIP 0.53 → 1.98 (+1.45)K% 43.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.680	29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 0.53 → 1.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 97 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.14 (+0.63)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.810	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.100	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.083	×1.200	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 7 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.69 (+0.63)K% 34.3% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.860	29.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×0.900	5.14%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.006	×1.100	6.25%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 34 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.16 (+0.98)K% 33.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.80%	—	×0.740	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×1.180	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.247	×1.300	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 14 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.95 (+1.42)K% 37.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.29%	—	×0.770	28.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.150	15.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.013	×1.250	4.18%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
River Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.09	22.5%	15.2%	294	+0.44	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	70
Andy Ferguson R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SP	3.10	18.6%	8.0%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	137	64
Stephen Fife R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	18.8%	8.1%	1.1%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.54	3.11	264	63
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	62
Jake Walkinshaw R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	28	SP	4.03	16.1%	8.5%	2.2%	.244	3.83	15.7%	5.7%	92	-0.20	2.84	310	61
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	61
Scott Richmond R 2008 · 2.80 FIP	28	SP	2.80	17.7%	1.8%	1.8%	.337	5.11	19.2%	9.7%	139	+2.31	2.80	166	60
Jason Alexander R 2021 · 2.66 FIP	28	SP-	2.66	26.8%	5.3%	2.1%	.297	4.02	16.1%	9.3%	329	+1.36	2.08	840	60
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	60
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	59
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	59
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	59
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	59
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	59
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	59
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	58
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	57
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	56
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	22.1%	7.7%	1.16	4.11
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Jay Ritchie ('64-'68, 2 WAR*)	1.5	58	21.1%*	8.0%*	1.01*	4.21*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30