River Ryan
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA3.10
FIP4.29
xFIP4.29
SIERA4.50
K%22.8%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.9%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p5022.2%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
FB+1.7 (50%)
CT+0.5 (3%)
SL (23%)
CH (8%)
SI (10%)
CU (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 15 | 13 | 48 | 201 | 70 | 21 | 4 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 2.45 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 26 | 24 | 104 | 448 | 110 | 46 | 10 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.80 | 4.10 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 12 | 45 | 176 | 50 | 17 | 2 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 1.81 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 2 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 18 | — | 18 | 74 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.10 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 25 | 107 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 51 | 204 | 858 | 190 | 97 | 16 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 3.72 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 50 | 200 | 843 | 187 | 95 | 16 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| River Ryan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.40 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 127 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 84 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 80 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 80 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 79 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.35 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .282 | 3.49 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.14 | 2.57 | 362 | 79 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -2.01 | 1.94 | 131 | 78 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 78 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 78 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 78 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .340 | 3.98 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.38 | 2.68 | 177 | 78 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 77 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 76 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.