River Ryan
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.31
FIP4.44
K%23.1%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p5022.2%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
FB+1.7 (50%)
CT+0.5 (3%)
SL (23%)
CH (8%)
SI (10%)
CU (16%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 48 | 201 | 70 | 21 | 4 | 87% | 3.2 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 2.45 | 3.58 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 48 | 201 | 70 | 21 | 4 | 87% | 3.2 | 34.8% | 10.4% | 24.4% | 2.0% | 2.45 | 2.58 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 104 | 448 | 110 | 46 | 10 | 92% | 4.0 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 104 | 448 | 110 | 46 | 10 | 92% | 4.0 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 45 | 176 | 50 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 1.81 | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 45 | 176 | 50 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 28.4% | 9.7% | 18.8% | 1.1% | 1.81 | 2.59 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 8 | 8 | 36 | 158 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 5.3% | 18.6% | 0.7% | 4.46 | 2.13 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 101 | 432 | 106 | 39 | 8 | — | — | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 4.36 | 3.61 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 36 | 150 | 35 | 17 | 4 | — | — | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 121 | 509 | 117 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 108 | 54 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 108 | 457 | 98 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 82 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 85 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 82 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 56 | 321 | 1351 | 301 | 150 | 38 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.16 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 841 | 188 | 93 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 57 | 233 | 983 | 218 | 104 | 17 | 93% | 3.8 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 3.52 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 49 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 89 | 15 | 93% | 3.8 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| River Ryan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.66 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 344 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 78 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 76 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 75 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 75 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 73 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 73 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 72 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 72 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 71 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 70 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.06 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .246 | 5.00 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 182 | +0.94 | 3.39 | 768 | 70 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .265 | 5.66 | 17.5% | 5.3% | 119 | +1.84 | 3.75 | 299 | 70 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 69 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 69 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 230 | 69 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 68 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 68 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 68 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 107 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 1.15 | 4.51 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |