River Ryan — OGILVIE

River Ryan P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.5 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.33

FIP4.45

K%22.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

FB+1.7 (50%)

CT+0.5 (3%)

SL (23%)

CH (8%)

SI (10%)

CU (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	48	201	70	21	4	87%	3.2	26.1%	12.2%	13.9%	2.3%	2.45	3.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	48	201	70	21	4	87%	3.2	34.8%	10.4%	24.4%	2.0%	2.45	2.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	104	448	110	46	10	92%	4.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	2.1%	3.80	4.14	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	104	448	110	46	10	92%	4.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	2.1%	3.80	4.14	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	104	448	110	46	10	92%	4.0	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	1.5%	1.81	3.22	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	1.5%	1.81	3.22	+0.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	45	176	50	17	2	100%	3.7	28.4%	9.7%	18.8%	1.1%	1.81	2.59	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	20	81	18	9	1	100%	5.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	1.2%	1.33	3.30	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	9	9	38	166	45	8	1	100%	4.3	22.5%	4.3%	18.2%	0.7%	4.23	2.11	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	9	9	38	166	45	8	1	100%	4.3	22.5%	4.3%	18.2%	0.7%	4.23	2.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	DET	9	9	38	166	45	8	1	100%	4.3	27.1%	4.8%	22.3%	0.6%	4.23	1.75	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	11	48	11	5	1	100%	5.6	22.9%	11.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.33	4.45	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	DET	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.9%	11.1%	11.7%	2.6%	4.27	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	50	214	56	13	2	—	—	26.2%	6.2%	19.9%	1.1%	4.25	2.64	+1.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	22.9%	11.1%	11.7%	2.6%	4.27	4.00	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	121	509	115	56	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.43	4.51	+0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	115	486	107	53	15	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.65	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	108	457	97	51	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.2%	4.72	4.84	+0.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	101	426	88	48	15	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.4%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	49	24	6	100%	6.4	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.7%	4.36	4.44	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	68	287	63	31	8	100%	6.2	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.49	4.58	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	76	321	68	36	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	79	334	69	38	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.84	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	296	1244	268	138	36	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.27	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	841	181	93	24	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		62	58	235	991	216	101	18	94%	3.8	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	1.8%	3.22	3.54	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	843	184	86	15	94%	3.8	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	1.8%	3.22	3.54	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
River Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.9%	11.1%	2.7%	—	4.66	22.0%	11.0%	344	+0.21	—	—	—
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	73
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	71
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	71
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	70
Daniel Corcino R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	27	SP-	3.84	20.8%	10.0%	2.2%	.265	5.83	17.5%	5.3%	119	+1.99	3.84	299	70
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	70
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	70
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	70
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	70
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	70
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	69
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	69
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	69
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	68
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	68
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	68
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	68
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	112	21.9%	11.1%	1.17	4.58
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94