Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 176 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 4.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8979vR 70

ERA3.04

FIP3.16

K%26.2%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%19.5%

ROS IP74

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 184 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p830.280

FB+1.1 (40%)

SL+0.9 (7%)

SI (13%)

CU (13%)

CT (13%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$11M	+1.9	$15M	+$4M
2027	Ext	$27M	+3.6	$27M	+$2M
2028	Ext	$27M	+3.1	$21M	-$0.6M
2029	Ext	$27M	+2.6	$17M	-$3M
2030	Ext	$27M	+2.0	$12M	-$6M
2031	Ext	$27M	+1.5	$8M	-$8M
2032	Ext	$27M	+0.9	$2M	-$12M
2033	Ext	$27M	+0.5	$1M	-$12M
2034	Ext	$27M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$228M		$103M	-$47M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$47M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.5%	6.0%	22.6%	2.0%	3.16	2.55	+3.0
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.6%	6.2%	22.3%	2.1%	3.16	2.63	+2.9
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.2%	2.49	2.90	+5.1
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.85	+5.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	17	17	111	425	106	24	12	100%	6.5	24.9%	5.6%	19.3%	2.8%	2.85	3.26	+2.8
ROS	27	MLB	LAD	11	11	74	312	82	21	8	100%	6.7	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	2.6%	3.04	3.16	+1.5
ROS	27	MLB	LAD	11	11	74	312	82	21	8	100%	6.7	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	2.5%	3.00	3.12	+1.5
2026 TOT	27	MLB	LAD	—	—	184	737	188	45	20	—	—	25.5%	6.1%	19.4%	2.7%	2.92	3.22	+4.7
2026 FULL	27	MLB	LAD	—	—	184	779	188	45	20	—	—	24.1%	5.7%	18.3%	2.5%	2.91	3.19	+4.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	LAD	28	28	170	719	191	49	19	100%	6.1	26.5%	6.9%	19.7%	2.7%	3.50	3.58	+3.6
2028	29	MLB	LAD	27	27	162	686	178	49	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.65	3.74	+3.2
2029	30	MLB	LAD	25	25	153	645	163	48	20	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.4%	17.9%	3.0%	3.83	3.95	+2.6
2030	31	MLB	LAD	24	24	142	602	147	47	20	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	3.3%	4.04	4.18	+2.0
2031	32	MLB	LAD	22	22	132	556	132	45	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	3.5%	4.28	4.44	+1.5
2032	33	MLB	LAD	20	20	121	510	117	44	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.6%	14.3%	3.8%	4.54	4.72	+1.0
2033	34	MLB	LAD	18	18	110	464	102	42	19	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	4.1%	4.83	5.02	+0.5
2034	35	MLB	LAD	16	16	99	417	87	40	18	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	4.4%	5.15	5.36	+0.0
2027	28	MLB	LAD	28	28	170	718	190	49	19	100%	6.1	26.5%	6.9%	19.7%	2.6%	3.46	3.54	+3.7
2028	29	MLB	LAD	27	27	162	684	177	48	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.61	3.70	+3.2
2029	30	MLB	LAD	26	26	153	646	163	48	19	100%	5.9	25.2%	7.4%	17.9%	2.9%	3.78	3.90	+2.7
2030	31	MLB	LAD	24	24	142	600	147	46	19	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	3.2%	3.99	4.13	+2.1
2031	32	MLB	LAD	22	22	132	557	132	45	19	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	3.4%	4.23	4.39	+1.6
2032	33	MLB	LAD	20	20	121	511	117	44	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.6%	14.3%	3.7%	4.48	4.66	+1.0
2033	34	MLB	LAD	18	18	110	464	102	42	18	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	4.0%	4.77	4.96	+0.6
2034	35	MLB	LAD	16	16	99	418	88	40	18	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	4.3%	5.08	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			258	258	1538	6388	1610	489	191	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	3.0%	3.70	3.58	+32.7
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	831	209	64	25	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	3.0%	3.70	3.58	+4.3
Career	—			67	67	378	1494	417	106	35	100%	5.6	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	2.3%	2.76	2.91	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	790	220	56	18	100%	5.6	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	2.3%	2.76	2.91	+5.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.34	29.0%	8.0%	2.4%	—	3.75	25.9%	18.8%	486	+0.41	—	—	—
Jacob deGrom R 2026 · 2.58 FIP	27	SP	2.58	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.10	0.75	1,489	65
Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	27	SP	3.83	27.4%	7.9%	3.7%	.294	3.76	27.5%	19.6%	469	-0.07	2.88	1,018	65
Kenta Maeda R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	28	SP	3.39	25.0%	6.1%	3.0%	.275	3.66	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.27	2.86	1,092	65
Trevor Bauer R 2026 · 2.16 FIP	27	SP	2.16	30.8%	7.7%	1.3%	.289	3.64	30.4%	22.2%	394	+1.48	2.16	1,111	64
Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	23.3%	8.9%	3.2%	.281	4.09	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.06	3.92	287	63
Carlos Carrasco R 2027 · 2.67 FIP	28	SP	2.67	29.6%	5.6%	2.5%	.299	3.01	27.8%	22.6%	538	+0.34	2.67	1,455	62
Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	62
Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.64	22.8%	10.3%	164	+1.24	3.40	330	62
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	28	SP	3.77	20.5%	8.0%	2.5%	.326	4.61	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.84	3.77	786	62
Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP	3.48	27.4%	6.9%	3.3%	.334	4.00	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	61
Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.16	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.97	2.34	1,876	61
Wilmer Font R 2026 · 2.78 FIP	27	SP	2.78	28.3%	6.6%	2.2%	.312	4.93	23.3%	15.3%	145	+2.15	2.78	345	61
Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	60
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	20.3%	8.6%	2.4%	.271	3.50	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.28	2.34	577	60
Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	23.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.308	3.65	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.25	2.79	1,345	60
Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.34	26.7%	20.1%	231	-0.96	2.28	426	60
Gerrit Cole R 2026 · 2.43 FIP	27	SP	2.43	34.5%	8.0%	2.2%	.282	2.65	36.3%	30.5%	467	+0.22	2.31	1,763	59
Tyson Ross R 2027 · 2.82 FIP	28	SP	2.82	25.8%	9.8%	1.2%	.313	4.52	17.6%	6.7%	217	+1.70	2.82	449	59
Jordan Zimmermann R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	29	SP	3.57	19.7%	4.3%	2.9%	.297	4.88	16.1%	10.7%	417	+1.31	3.57	731	59
Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.68	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.47	3.17	938	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	140	24.9%	7.9%	1.25	4.01
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17