Yoshinobu Yamamoto
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+3.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 176 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 3.6 · 2026
ERA3.00
FIP3.23
xFIP3.58
SIERA3.51
K%28.6%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%20.4%
IP165
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.6peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p7729.6%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB+1.1 (36%)
SL+0.9 (6%)
SI (10%)
CU (12%)
CT (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 20 | 20 | 94 | 385 | 110 | 24 | 8 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 3.16 | 2.45 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 174 | 684 | 201 | 59 | 14 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 2.49 | 2.69 | +5.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 4 | 26 | 95 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 22.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.10 | 3.37 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 143 | 38 | 13 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 2.66 | 3.03 | +3.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 154 | 635 | 164 | 41 | 16 | 25.9% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.57 | 3.08 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 143 | 602 | 161 | 43 | 14 | 26.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 3.26 | 3.42 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 130 | 547 | 143 | 40 | 13 | 26.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.50 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 127 | 36 | 12 | 25.7% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 3.59 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 111 | 33 | 11 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 3.69 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 97 | 30 | 10 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.81 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 84 | 27 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.93 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 78 | 22 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.80 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 66 | 20 | 8 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.96 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 22.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 54 | 293 | 1164 | 332 | 85 | 22 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 2.67 | 2.66 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 794 | 226 | 58 | 15 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 2.67 | 2.66 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.26 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 2.2% | — | 3.50 | 26.2% | 19.0% | 389 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 68 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.67 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .271 | 3.44 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.23 | 2.27 | 577 | 67 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.62 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.63 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +1.01 | 3.62 | 786 | 66 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 66 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.72 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .249 | 4.97 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 20 | +1.25 | 3.54 | 761 | 65 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.91 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.05 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.14 | 3.91 | 287 | 65 |
| Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.31 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -1.02 | 2.25 | 426 | 65 |
| Zach Petrick R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 157 | 65 |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.31 | 19.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | .295 | 3.09 | 28.6% | 22.3% | 354 | -1.22 | 2.09 | 1,786 | 65 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.23 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.6% | .272 | 3.53 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.30 | 2.72 | 392 | 64 |
| Matt Heidenreich R 2023 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.34 | 15.4% | 5.2% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 155 | 64 |
| Austin Peterson R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.01 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 423 | 62 |
| Terry Doyle R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 14.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | .262 | 2.82 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 35 | -0.38 | 2.82 | 193 | 62 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.31 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.68 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.63 | 3.20 | 592 | 62 |
| Duncan Davitt R 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.13 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 369 | 62 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.11 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .278 | 5.52 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.41 | 3.29 | 938 | 62 |
| Cory Riordan R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 62 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.14 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.94 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.80 | 4.04 | 489 | 61 |
| Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.35 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 254 | 61 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.41 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.88 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.47 | 2.98 | 598 | 61 |
Contract
CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $27M | +3.6 | $29M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-1 | $27M | +3.0 | $25M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-2 | $27M | +2.7 | $23M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-3 | $27M | +2.3 | $20M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.9 | $17M | -$10M |
| 2031 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.5 | $14M | -$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.1 | $11M | -$17M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.1 | $11M | -$16M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.8 | $4M | -$23M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.5 | $3M | -$24M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $257M | $156M | -$102M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$102M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$102M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.