Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 176 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 4.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION172 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8577vR 69

ERA2.90

FIP2.98

K%26.7%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 189 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$115M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

FB+1.1 (40%)

SL+0.9 (6%)

SI (13%)

CU (13%)

CT (15%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$0.9M
2027	Ext	$27M	+2.8	$22M	-$2M
2028	Ext	$27M	+2.3	$16M	-$6M
2029	Ext	$27M	+1.8	$11M	-$8M
2030	Ext	$27M	+1.3	$8M	-$10M
2031	Ext	$27M	+0.8	$2M	-$14M
2032	Ext	$27M	+0.3	$0.8M	-$14M
2033	Ext	$27M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$192M		$61M	-$68M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$68M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.5%	6.0%	22.6%	1.8%	3.16	2.45	+2.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.5%	6.0%	22.6%	1.8%	3.16	2.45	+2.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.6%	6.2%	22.3%	2.1%	3.16	2.63	+2.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.79	+4.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.79	+4.7
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.85	+4.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	74	436	1710	477	119	40	100%	5.9	27.9%	7.0%	20.9%	2.3%	2.64	2.92	+10.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	26	172	658	171	38	19	100%	6.6	26.0%	5.8%	20.2%	2.8%	2.62	3.16	+3.8
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	26	172	658	171	38	19	100%	6.6	26.0%	5.8%	20.2%	2.8%	2.62	3.16	+3.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	LAD	26	26	172	658	171	38	19	100%	6.6	26.0%	5.8%	20.2%	2.9%	2.62	3.22	+3.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	LAD	26	26	172	658	171	38	19	100%	6.6	26.0%	5.8%	20.2%	2.9%	2.62	3.22	+3.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	LAD	3	3	17	72	19	5	2	100%	5.7	26.7%	6.5%	20.1%	2.4%	2.90	2.98	+0.4
ROS	27	MLB CTX	LAD	3	3	17	72	19	5	2	100%	5.7	26.7%	6.5%	20.1%	2.5%	2.95	3.03	+0.4
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	189	730	190	43	21	—	—	26.1%	5.8%	20.2%	2.8%	2.64	3.14	+4.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	189	798	190	43	21	—	—	23.8%	5.3%	18.5%	2.6%	2.65	3.19	+4.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAD	28	28	170	719	193	48	19	100%	6.1	26.8%	6.7%	20.1%	2.7%	3.48	3.55	+2.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	162	686	180	48	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	6.9%	19.3%	2.9%	3.62	3.71	+2.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	153	645	165	47	20	100%	6.1	25.5%	7.2%	18.3%	3.1%	3.80	3.92	+1.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	142	602	149	46	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	7.6%	17.2%	3.3%	4.01	4.15	+1.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	132	556	133	44	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.5%	4.25	4.40	+0.8
2032	33	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	121	510	118	43	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	3.8%	4.51	4.68	+0.3
2033	34	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	110	464	103	42	19	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	4.1%	4.80	4.99	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAD	28	28	170	718	193	48	20	100%	6.1	26.8%	6.7%	20.1%	2.8%	3.54	3.61	+2.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	162	684	179	47	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	6.9%	19.3%	3.0%	3.69	3.78	+2.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	25	25	153	646	165	47	21	100%	6.1	25.5%	7.2%	18.3%	3.2%	3.87	3.99	+1.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	142	600	149	46	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	7.6%	17.2%	3.4%	4.09	4.23	+1.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	LAD	22	22	132	557	134	45	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.7%	4.33	4.48	+0.8
2032	33	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	121	511	118	43	20	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	4.0%	4.60	4.77	+0.3
2033	34	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	110	464	103	42	20	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	4.3%	4.90	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	241	1443	5965	1537	441	184	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	3.1%	3.63	3.55	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	827	213	61	25	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	3.1%	3.63	3.55	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		76	76	440	1727	482	120	39	100%	5.8	27.9%	6.9%	21.0%	2.2%	2.68	2.85	+20.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	786	219	55	18	100%	5.8	27.9%	6.9%	21.0%	2.2%	2.68	2.85	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.27	29.1%	8.1%	2.2%	—	3.72	26.2%	19.3%	486	+0.45	—	—	—
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	79
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	72
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	70
Jacob deGrom R 2015 · 2.57 FIP	27	SP	2.57	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.11	0.74	1,538	67
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.37	27.5%	22.4%	436	-0.50	2.41	961	66
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	64
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	64
Kyle Bradish R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	25.0%	6.6%	2.1%	.265	3.61	25.0%	15.3%	243	+0.64	2.20	750	64
Carlos Carrasco R 2015 · 2.67 FIP	28	SP	2.67	29.6%	5.6%	2.5%	.299	3.00	27.8%	22.6%	538	+0.33	2.67	1,455	63
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	63
Trevor Bauer R 2018 · 2.16 FIP	27	SP	2.16	30.8%	7.7%	1.3%	.289	3.54	30.4%	22.2%	394	+1.38	2.16	1,111	63
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	63
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	63
Masahiro Tanaka R 2016 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	20.5%	4.5%	2.6%	.270	3.91	23.4%	18.0%	516	+0.57	3.34	918	62
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	62
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	62
George Kirby R 2023 · 3.12 FIP	25	SP	3.12	22.7%	2.4%	3.0%	.288	3.38	22.7%	18.2%	482	+0.26	2.18	895	62
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	62
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	62
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.1%	10.6%	183	+1.12	3.40	349	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	145	25.5%	7.7%	1.20	3.88
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45