Jason Alexander

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 227 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	AAABOS	29	27	138	4.42	3.19	21.9%	6.5%	—	K 18.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.48
2025	32	MIX2 levels	31	25	141	3.31	4.20	20.2%	9.1%	2.0	K 18.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	33	MIX3 levels	23	19	110	5.74	4.11	19.2%	8.8%	1.7	K 16.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.41
2027PROJ	34	MLBHOU	10	10	57	4.83	4.82	17.3%	8.3%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	35	MLBHOU	6	6	34	5.03	5.16	16.3%	8.9%	0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	36	MLBHOU	3	3	17	5.33	5.52	15.3%	9.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs33

K%12

FB Velo10

CompsGuillermo Moscoso (age 34) · Juan Delgadillo (age 34) · Rolando Valdez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.83

FIP4.82

K%17.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	44	178	37	4	0	0%	2.4	15.8%	2.5%	13.3%	0.0%	3.50	2.08	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	44	178	37	4	0	0%	2.4	20.8%	2.2%	18.5%	0.0%	3.50	1.68	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	116	491	95	32	14	88%	4.8	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	3.3%	4.41	4.52	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	21	116	491	95	32	14	88%	4.8	19.3%	6.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.41	3.86	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	101	471	96	36	10	65%	4.4	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.3%	6.66	3.96	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	101	471	96	36	10	65%	4.4	20.4%	7.6%	12.7%	2.1%	6.66	3.55	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	6	20	78	22	3	1	86%	2.8	26.8%	5.3%	21.5%	2.1%	1.37	2.66	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	6	20	78	22	3	1	86%	2.8	28.2%	3.8%	24.4%	1.3%	1.37	1.98	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	21	135	581	93	45	17	68%	4.4	15.0%	7.9%	7.1%	3.0%	4.20	4.46	+1.5
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	21	135	581	93	45	17	68%	4.4	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.36	+1.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	63	292	44	21	5	58%	3.3	11.9%	6.8%	5.1%	2.4%	6.14	4.27	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	63	292	44	21	5	58%	3.3	15.1%	7.2%	7.9%	1.7%	6.14	3.73	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	2.3%	4.42	3.48	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	2.3%	4.42	3.48	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	21.9%	6.5%	15.5%	2.0%	4.42	3.19	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.1%	3.31	4.31	+1.8
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.1%	3.31	4.31	+1.8
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.0%	3.31	4.20	+2.0
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	110	480	92	42	13	83%	4.8	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	3.0%	5.74	4.41	+1.3
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	110	480	92	42	13	83%	4.8	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	3.0%	5.74	4.41	+1.3
2026	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	110	480	92	42	13	83%	4.8	19.2%	8.8%	10.4%	2.7%	5.74	4.11	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	26	167	741	125	62	31	65%	4.2	16.9%	8.4%	8.5%	4.2%	5.54	5.13	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	HOU	10	10	57	241	42	20	8	100%	5.7	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	36	153	25	14	5	100%	6.0	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.03	5.16	+0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	HOU	3	3	20	85	13	8	3	100%	6.7	15.3%	9.5%	5.8%	3.9%	5.33	5.52	-0.0
2030	37	MLB MLE	HOU	2	2	10	43	6	4	2	100%	5.1	14.2%	10.1%	4.1%	4.3%	5.69	5.92	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	34	144	23	13	5	100%	5.7	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.03	5.16	+0.1
2029	36	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	17	72	11	7	3	100%	5.7	15.3%	9.5%	5.8%	3.9%	5.33	5.52	-0.0
2030	37	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	8	34	5	3	1	100%	8.0	14.2%	10.1%	4.1%	4.3%	5.69	5.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	36	227	993	165	85	40	72%	4.5	16.6%	8.6%	8.0%	4.1%	5.45	5.02	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	32	200	875	145	75	35	72%	4.5	16.6%	8.6%	8.0%	4.1%	5.45	5.02	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		205	145	868	3763	628	272	100	71%	4.2	16.7%	7.2%	9.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.06	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	33	200	867	145	63	23	71%	4.2	16.7%	7.2%	9.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.06	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 87 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.15 (+0.24)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.54%	—	×0.860	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×0.900	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 64 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.49 (+0.20)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.27%	—	×0.860	18.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.82%	—	×0.900	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.28%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 138 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.48 (+0.29)K% 21.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.94%	—	×0.860	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×0.900	5.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.25%

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 55 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.27 (+0.30)K% 13.8% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.83%	—	×0.860	11.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.51%	—	×0.900	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.905	×1.100	2.40%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Brewers · 5 IPFIP 0.49 → 1.67 (+1.18)K% 38.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.680	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.898	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 0.49 → 1.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 63 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.85 (+0.40)K% 18.1% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.08%	—	×0.880	15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.54%	—	×1.050	6.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.946	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 15 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.66 (+0.57)K% 30.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.51%	—	×0.880	26.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.050	5.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.886	×1.100	2.10%

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 50 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.41 (+0.25)K% 14.6% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.57%	—	×0.880	12.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.050	8.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.059	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.39	15.7%	6.4%	67	+0.57	—	—	—
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	66
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	65
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	65
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	62
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	61
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	60
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	60
Angel Sánchez R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	11.8%	5.0%	1.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	284	60
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	58
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	56
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	55
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	55
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	55
Cesar Carrillo R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	33	SP	4.97	12.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.320	6.22	11.0%	1.8%	66	+1.25	4.14	336	54
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	53
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	53
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	52
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.79	414	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	16.7%	8.6%	1.51	5.33
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*