Jason Alexander
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 227 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.65
FIP4.58
xFIP4.19
SIERA4.35
K%19.6%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%11.1%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SI (40%)
CT (1%)
CH-1.5 (33%)
FB-1.9 (50%)
SL-4.8 (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 18 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 15.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 3.50 | 2.08 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 24 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 95 | 32 | 14 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 23 | 15 | 101 | 471 | 96 | 36 | 10 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 6.66 | 3.95 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 7 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 26.8% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.37 | 2.68 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 21 | 135 | 581 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 19 | 11 | 63 | 292 | 44 | 21 | 5 | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 6.14 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 29 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 129 | 38 | 12 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 3.57 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 25 | 141 | 604 | 122 | 55 | 18 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 3.31 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 4 | 4 | 19 | 81 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 8.7% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 3.26 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 18.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 67 | 281 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 82 | 43 | 15 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 74 | 41 | 15 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 66 | 39 | 14 | 15.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 130 | 778 | 3364 | 562 | 255 | 85 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.04 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 144 | 66 | 22 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Alexander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 18.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.08 | 16.5% | 7.4% | 318 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 83 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 80 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 79 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 79 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 78 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 77 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 77 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 76 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 75 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 75 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.65 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .313 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.34 | 2.47 | 332 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.