Jason Alexander — OGILVIE

Jason Alexander P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 227 lbs AAA peak 1.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.31

FIP4.35

K%17.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

SI (40%)

CT (1%)

CH-1.5 (33%)

FB-1.9 (50%)

SL-4.8 (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	44	178	37	4	0	0%	2.4	15.8%	2.5%	13.3%	0.0%	3.50	2.08	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	44	178	37	4	0	0%	2.4	20.8%	2.2%	18.5%	0.0%	3.50	1.68	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	116	491	95	32	14	88%	4.8	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	3.3%	4.41	4.52	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	21	116	491	95	32	14	88%	4.8	19.3%	6.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.41	3.86	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	101	471	96	36	10	65%	4.4	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.3%	6.66	3.96	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	101	471	96	36	10	65%	4.4	20.4%	7.6%	12.7%	2.1%	6.66	3.55	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	6	20	78	22	3	1	86%	2.8	26.8%	5.3%	21.5%	2.1%	1.37	2.66	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	6	20	78	22	3	1	86%	2.8	28.2%	3.8%	24.4%	1.3%	1.37	1.98	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	21	135	581	93	45	17	68%	4.4	15.0%	7.9%	7.1%	3.0%	4.20	4.46	+0.7
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	21	135	581	93	45	17	68%	4.4	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.36	+0.9
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	63	292	44	21	5	58%	3.3	11.5%	6.8%	4.7%	2.4%	6.14	4.31	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	63	292	44	21	5	58%	3.3	11.5%	6.8%	4.7%	2.4%	6.14	4.31	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	63	292	44	21	5	58%	3.3	15.1%	7.2%	7.9%	1.7%	6.14	3.73	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.3%	4.42	3.54	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.3%	4.42	3.54	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	29	27	138	588	129	38	12	93%	4.8	21.9%	6.5%	15.5%	2.0%	4.42	3.19	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.1%	3.31	4.34	+0.9
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.1%	3.31	4.34	+0.9
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	141	604	122	55	18	81%	4.6	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.0%	3.31	4.20	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	26	167	741	125	62	31	65%	4.2	16.9%	8.4%	8.5%	4.2%	5.54	5.13	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	18	99	435	82	38	10	86%	4.7	15.3%	8.1%	7.2%	2.5%	5.84	4.22	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	18	99	435	82	38	10	86%	4.7	15.3%	8.1%	7.2%	2.5%	5.84	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	ROK RAW	HOU	1	1	4	13	7	1	0	100%	4.0	53.8%	7.7%	46.2%	0.0%	0.00	-0.47	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	HOU	16	15	76	338	61	29	6	94%	4.8	18.0%	8.6%	9.5%	1.8%	5.31	3.64	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	HOU	4	2	18	84	14	8	4	50%	4.6	16.7%	9.5%	7.1%	4.8%	9.33	5.51	-0.1
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	HOU	4	2	18	84	14	8	4	50%	4.6	16.7%	9.5%	7.1%	4.8%	9.33	5.51	-0.1
ROS	33	MLB MLE	HOU	2	2	14	61	10	5	2	100%	7.2	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.35	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	HOU	2	2	14	59	10	5	2	100%	7.0	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.35	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	113	496	92	43	12	—	—	18.7%	8.6%	10.0%	2.4%	5.64	4.24	+0.9
FULL	33	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	33	138	92	43	12	—	—	66.9%	31.0%	35.9%	8.6%	19.50	6.10	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	HOU	26	26	156	658	110	58	24	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	3.6%	5.04	5.18	-0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	HOU	23	23	140	591	93	55	24	100%	6.1	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.0%	5.32	5.51	-0.9
2027	34	MLB CTX	HOU	25	25	148	625	105	55	23	100%	5.9	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	3.6%	5.04	5.18	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	127	536	85	50	21	100%	6.0	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.0%	5.32	5.51	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	75	457	1965	325	172	77	84%	5.1	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	3.9%	5.28	4.96	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	33	200	860	142	75	34	84%	5.2	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	3.9%	5.28	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		203	144	857	3718	611	268	96	71%	4.2	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.64	4.05	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	867	142	63	22	71%	4.2	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	2.6%	4.64	4.05	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	18.0%	8.0%	3.1%	—	5.34	16.3%	7.3%	296	+0.66	—	—	—
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	75
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	75
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	73
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	72
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	72
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	71
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	71
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	70
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	70
Stephen Fife R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	31	SP	3.77	12.5%	5.1%	2.0%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	179	69
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	69
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	69
Mitch Talbot R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	34	SP	3.82	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.19	3.82	162	68
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	68
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	67
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	67
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	67
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	151	16.9%	8.7%	1.38	4.99
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47