Jason Alexander
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 227 lbs
AAA
peak 1.0 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 81 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.31
FIP4.36
K%17.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP81
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SI (40%)
CT (1%)
CH-1.5 (33%)
FB-1.9 (50%)
SL-4.8 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.4 | 15.8% | 2.5% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 3.50 | 2.08 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.4 | 20.8% | 2.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 3.50 | 1.68 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 95 | 32 | 14 | 88% | 4.8 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.57 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 95 | 32 | 14 | 88% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 3.86 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 101 | 471 | 96 | 36 | 10 | 65% | 4.4 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 6.66 | 3.89 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 101 | 471 | 96 | 36 | 10 | 65% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 6.66 | 3.55 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 86% | 2.8 | 26.8% | 5.3% | 21.5% | 2.4% | 1.37 | 2.83 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 86% | 2.8 | 28.2% | 3.8% | 24.4% | 1.3% | 1.37 | 1.98 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 21 | 135 | 581 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 68% | 4.4 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 21 | 135 | 581 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 68% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.36 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 11 | 63 | 292 | 44 | 21 | 5 | 58% | 3.3 | 12.2% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 6.14 | 4.54 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 11 | 63 | 292 | 44 | 21 | 5 | 58% | 3.3 | 15.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 6.14 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 29 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 129 | 38 | 12 | 93% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 29 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 129 | 38 | 12 | 93% | 4.8 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.5% | 2.0% | 4.42 | 3.19 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 141 | 604 | 122 | 55 | 18 | 81% | 4.6 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.31 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 141 | 604 | 122 | 55 | 18 | 81% | 4.6 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.31 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 13 | 10 | 62 | 281 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 77% | 4.8 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 6.50 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 58 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 81 | 342 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 143 | 622 | 100 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 16.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 99 | 418 | 100 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 24.0% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 7.60 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 26 | 156 | 658 | 113 | 61 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 96 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 124 | 523 | 79 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.66 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 107 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 87 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 65 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.66 | 5.88 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 102 | 625 | 2674 | 442 | 248 | 103 | 88% | 5.4 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 4.99 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 33 | 200 | 855 | 141 | 79 | 33 | 88% | 5.4 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 136 | 821 | 3564 | 594 | 271 | 93 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.08 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 868 | 145 | 66 | 23 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Alexander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.50 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 420 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 75 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 74 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 74 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 73 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 72 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 72 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 70 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 70 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 70 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 69 |
| Mitch Lively R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 69 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .322 | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 147 | -0.14 | 3.84 | 567 | 68 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 68 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 68 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 68 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 68 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 67 |
| Kameron Loe R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 67 |
| Stephen Fife R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.65 | 12.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 179 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 134 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 1.44 | 5.17 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |