Tyler Duffey — OGILVIE

Tyler Duffey P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.34

K%22.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5555

SI (16%)

CU (30%)

CH (8%)

SL (17%)

FB (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	32	196	801	175	50	5	100%	6.1	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	0.6%	2.71	2.62	+5.8
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	32	196	801	175	50	5	100%	6.1	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	0.6%	2.71	2.41	+6.4
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	164	721	139	41	29	100%	5.3	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	4.1%	5.77	4.48	+0.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	164	721	139	41	29	100%	5.3	19.3%	5.7%	13.6%	4.0%	5.77	4.46	+0.8
2017	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	56	0	71	310	67	13	9	0%	1.3	21.6%	4.2%	17.4%	2.9%	4.94	3.39	+1.0
2017	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	56	0	71	310	67	13	9	0%	1.3	21.6%	4.2%	17.4%	2.9%	4.94	3.41	+1.0
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	84	353	82	22	11	2%	1.7	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	3.5%	4.18	4.04	+0.5
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	84	353	82	22	11	2%	1.7	23.2%	6.2%	17.0%	3.1%	4.18	3.64	+0.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	71	291	104	18	8	0%	1.1	34.8%	6.3%	28.6%	2.7%	2.27	2.45	+1.8
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	71	291	104	18	8	0%	1.1	35.7%	6.2%	29.6%	2.7%	2.27	2.40	+1.8
2020	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	22	0	24	92	31	6	2	0%	1.1	33.7%	6.5%	27.2%	2.2%	1.88	2.27	+0.7
2020	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	22	0	24	92	31	6	2	0%	1.1	33.7%	6.5%	27.2%	2.2%	1.88	2.35	+0.6
2021	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	64	0	62	254	61	27	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	1.6%	3.18	3.28	+0.9
2021	30	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	64	0	62	254	61	27	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	1.6%	3.18	3.28	+0.9
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	241	52	19	9	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	3.8%	5.07	4.41	+0.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	241	52	19	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	3.7%	5.07	4.37	+0.1
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	2	51	204	61	24	8	5%	1.3	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	4.4%	3.51	4.90	-0.2
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	2	51	204	61	24	8	5%	1.3	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	4.4%	3.51	4.90	-0.2
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	2	51	204	61	24	8	5%	1.3	29.9%	11.8%	18.1%	3.9%	3.51	4.15	+0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	40	169	44	19	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	1.6%	2.95	3.07	+0.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	40	169	44	19	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	1.6%	2.95	3.07	+0.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	40	169	44	19	2	0%	1.2	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	1.2%	2.95	2.97	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			305	37	486	2073	479	134	67	12%	1.6	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	3.2%	4.57	3.75	+4.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	KC	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.34	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	KC	139	0	146	616	133	61	20	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.71	-0.3
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	121	0	127	538	110	56	20	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.7%	4.89	5.11	-0.8
2027	36	MLB CTX	KC	139	0	146	616	133	61	20	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.71	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	121	0	127	536	110	56	20	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.7%	4.89	5.11	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		565	37	759	3227	723	251	107	7%	1.3	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.62	4.02	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	10	200	850	190	66	28	7%	1.3	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.62	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		443	66	818	3436	765	236	90	15%	1.8	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	2.6%	3.86	3.54	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	16	200	840	187	58	22	15%	1.8	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	2.6%	3.86	3.54	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Duffey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	22.7%	9.2%	2.9%	—	4.90	21.1%	11.0%	273	+0.56	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	62
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	61
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	59
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	59
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	58
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	57
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	57
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	57
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	57
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	57
Logan Kensing R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	16.5%	7.9%	1.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	172	55
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	54
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	54
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	53
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	52
Jesse Chavez R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	35	SW	4.00	21.4%	6.5%	3.4%	.303	3.25	25.5%	17.9%	140	-0.75	2.03	804	52
Craig Stammen R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	35	SU	3.82	21.5%	3.8%	3.7%	.279	3.79	21.8%	17.7%	153	-0.03	1.82	407	52
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	51
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	51
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	146	21.7%	9.8%	1.27	4.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64