Blake Burkhalter
P
Columbus Clingstones
+0.8
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 204 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%8.9%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 16 | 16 | 72 | 292 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.39 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 32 | 16 | 103 | 437 | 88 | 45 | 4 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 3.32 | 3.70 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 74 | 39 | 9 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 83 | 41 | 10 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 86 | 42 | 10 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 87 | 42 | 11 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 85 | 41 | 11 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 81 | 40 | 11 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 78 | 39 | 11 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 73 | 38 | 10 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 69 | 37 | 10 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 64 | 36 | 10 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 66 | 32 | 10 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 60 | 31 | 10 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 55 | 29 | 9 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 33 | 180 | 748 | 130 | 69 | 10 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.50 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 37 | 200 | 833 | 145 | 77 | 11 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.50 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Burkhalter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 2.3% | — | 4.36 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 304 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 93 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 92 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 90 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 89 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 89 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 86 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 17.1% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .301 | 4.87 | 15.8% | -1.0% | 60 | +1.31 | 3.56 | 269 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 85 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 85 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 85 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 84 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $9M | $38M | +$29M | ||