Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 36.8% | 5.3% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.66 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 36.8% | 5.3% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.74 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 72 | 292 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 72 | 292 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 6.2% | 17.5% | 1.0% | 3.00 | 2.48 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 103 | 437 | 88 | 45 | 4 | 50% | 3.2 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 3.32 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 16 | 103 | 437 | 88 | 45 | 4 | 50% | 3.2 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 3.32 | 3.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 13 | 0 | 16 | 63 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 0.56 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 86 | 359 | 72 | 35 | 8 | — | — | 20.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 3.83 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 59 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.24 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 90 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 33 | 196 | 811 | 152 | 72 | 12 | 52% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 2.99 | 3.44 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 34 | 200 | 829 | 156 | 73 | 12 | 52% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 2.99 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Burkhalter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | — | 4.61 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 139 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 88 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 88 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 87 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .295 | 4.83 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.15 | 2.94 | 267 | 86 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 85 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.97 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 183 | +0.73 | 3.41 | 390 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 83 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 83 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 83 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 83 |
| Brad Allen R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 82 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 81 |
| Raymar Navarro R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.2% | .332 | 4.29 | 11.8% | 1.0% | 41 | +0.17 | 4.12 | 108 | 81 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 81 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .251 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.44 | 3.06 | 322 | 81 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.74 | 13.1% | 10.8% | 0.7% | .302 | 4.73 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 164 | +0.99 | 3.74 | 291 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 0.93 | 4.65 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |