Blake Burkhalter

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 204 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	16	16	72	3.00	2.48	23.6%	6.2%	—	K 17.3% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.35
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	16	103	3.32	3.21	20.1%	10.3%	—	K 16.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.63
2026	25	MIX5 levels	32	0	42	2.14	2.67	29.5%	8.7%	0.9	K 23.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.25
2027PROJ	26	MLBATL	38	0	40	4.43	4.43	19.5%	9.9%	0.1
2028PROJ74% MLB	27	MLBATL	50	0	53	4.43	4.44	19.8%	9.8%	0.1
2029PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBATL	48	0	50	4.48	4.51	19.8%	9.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJose Samayoa (age 26) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · David Pauley (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	5	19	7	1	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	5.3%	31.6%	0.0%	3.86	0.66	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	5	19	7	1	0	33%	1.6	36.8%	5.3%	31.6%	0.0%	3.86	0.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	292	69	18	3	100%	4.5	17.3%	6.5%	10.7%	1.6%	3.00	3.35	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	292	69	18	3	100%	4.5	17.3%	6.5%	10.7%	1.6%	3.00	3.35	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	72	292	69	18	3	100%	4.5	23.6%	6.2%	17.5%	1.0%	3.00	2.48	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	103	437	88	45	4	50%	3.2	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	1.1%	3.32	3.63	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	103	437	88	45	4	50%	3.2	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	1.1%	3.32	3.63	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	103	437	88	45	4	50%	3.2	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	0.9%	3.32	3.21	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	32	0	42	173	51	15	3	0%	1.3	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	1.8%	2.14	3.25	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	32	0	42	173	51	15	3	0%	1.3	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	1.8%	2.14	3.25	+0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	32	0	42	173	51	15	3	0%	1.3	29.5%	8.7%	20.8%	1.7%	2.14	2.67	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ATL	38	0	40	169	33	17	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	2.4%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	69	0	72	304	60	30	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.5%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	59	0	62	263	52	26	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.7%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	ATL	54	0	56	237	47	23	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.63	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	54	229	49	21	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	53	224	44	22	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.5%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	48	0	50	211	42	21	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.7%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	ATL	45	0	47	198	39	20	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.63	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	ATL	45	0	47	198	42	19	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	0	197	834	168	81	23	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.15	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	845	170	82	23	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.15	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		83	33	222	921	170	82	13	40%	2.7	18.4%	8.9%	9.6%	1.4%	3.00	3.41	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	30	200	831	153	74	11	40%	2.7	18.4%	8.9%	9.6%	1.4%	3.00	3.41	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 30 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.25 (+0.28)K% 26.8% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.860	23.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×0.900	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 6 IPFIP 1.08 → 1.62 (+0.54)K% 30.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.810	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.100	4.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.08 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 72 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.20 (+0.51)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.24%	—	×0.810	17.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×1.100	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.33%	÷0.934	×1.200	0.42%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 31 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.66 (+0.23)K% 17.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.56%	—	×0.860	15.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.21%	—	×0.900	10.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.62%

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 70 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.35 (+0.84)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.42%	—	×0.770	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.69%	—	×1.150	6.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷0.831	×1.250	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Burkhalter (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.52	19.7%	9.9%	191	+0.09	—	—	—
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	77
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	75
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	74
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	74
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	74
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	73
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	73
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	73
Jon Rauch R 2005 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.236	3.67	21.6%	15.8%	250	-0.11	2.87	595	73
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	72
Robbie Baker R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	26	SU	3.62	19.2%	11.3%	1.3%	.303	5.21	19.5%	12.0%	107	+1.59	3.29	181	72
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	71
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	71
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	71
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	20.0%	9.8%	1.04	4.50
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*