Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 11 | 0 | 17 | 69 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 1.56 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 11 | 0 | 17 | 69 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 1.56 | 2.35 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.98 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.26 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 11 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 4.01 | 3.64 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 11 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 26.0% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 4.01 | 2.65 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 63 | 264 | 66 | 14 | 7 | 2% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 63 | 264 | 66 | 14 | 7 | 2% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.12 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 31 | 0 | 54 | 242 | 57 | 20 | 16 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.96 | 6.56 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 31 | 0 | 54 | 242 | 57 | 20 | 16 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 6.6% | 5.96 | 5.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.30 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 78 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 1 | 191 | 814 | 150 | 67 | 32 | 1% | 1.7 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 4.76 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 1 | 200 | 851 | 157 | 70 | 34 | 1% | 1.7 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robbie Baker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.68 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 33 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 87 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 83 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 77 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 1.28 | 4.53 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |