Jared Karros
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 195 lbs
AA
ERA5.25
FIP5.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.7%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CMD5060
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 22 | 18 | 84 | 340 | 86 | 23 | 10 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 15 | 15 | 68 | 267 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 2.79 | 3.36 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 12 | 12 | 52 | 249 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.54 | 7.73 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 46 | 22 | 10 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 49 | 22 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.08 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 49 | 21 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 48 | 21 | 9 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.01 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 46 | 21 | 9 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.06 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 43 | 20 | 9 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 41 | 20 | 9 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 5.21 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 39 | 19 | 8 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 36 | 19 | 8 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 5.40 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 33 | 18 | 8 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 5.51 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 30 | 17 | 8 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 5.64 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 45 | 204 | 856 | 154 | 79 | 38 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 4.02 | 5.19 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 44 | 200 | 841 | 151 | 78 | 37 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 4.02 | 5.19 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Karros (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 4.0% | — | 5.03 | 19.9% | 11.1% | 175 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 91 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 90 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 90 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .286 | 4.37 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.45 | 4.37 | 141 | 89 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 89 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.66 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .287 | 4.76 | 13.7% | 1.8% | 52 | +0.10 | 4.66 | 185 | 88 |
| Mario Morales R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 108 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 87 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.31 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 119 | 86 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 86 |
| Max Duval R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .317 | 5.44 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 127 | +0.90 | 3.27 | 189 | 86 |
| Alejandro Mateo R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.88 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .301 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 13 | -0.91 | 3.97 | 209 | 86 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 86 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .301 | 5.92 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +1.68 | 2.23 | 174 | 86 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.01 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | .289 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 64 | -1.02 | 3.99 | 199 | 86 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 86 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 86 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.92 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 62 | -0.50 | 2.30 | 189 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.