Jared Karros
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 124
ERA5.51
FIP5.51
K%15.4%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 84 | 340 | 86 | 23 | 10 | 82% | 3.8 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 3.44 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 84 | 340 | 86 | 23 | 10 | 82% | 3.8 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.44 | 3.42 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 267 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 1.6% | 2.79 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 267 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.7% | 8.2% | 19.5% | 1.5% | 2.79 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 12 | 12 | 52 | 249 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 12.4% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 6.54 | 7.92 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 12 | 12 | 52 | 249 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 15.3% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.54 | 6.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 93 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 4.90 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 75 | 34 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 45 | 204 | 856 | 154 | 79 | 38 | 92% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 4.02 | 5.21 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 44 | 200 | 841 | 151 | 78 | 38 | 92% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 4.02 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Karros (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 4.1% | — | 5.28 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 206 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 86 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 83 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.49 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 235 | 81 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 81 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 81 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 81 |
| Javier Solano R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .331 | 4.06 | 12.3% | 7.3% | 275 | -0.93 | 3.63 | 506 | 81 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.45 | 13.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | .255 | 4.76 | 16.4% | 4.0% | 21 | -0.69 | 4.02 | 285 | 80 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 80 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 79 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 79 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 6.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.39 | 13.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | .296 | 3.18 | 12.6% | 3.5% | 22 | -3.21 | 3.18 | 237 | 79 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2026 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 78 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 78 |
| Parker Smith R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 78 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 78 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 4.95 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.51 | 3.38 | 372 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.54 | 5.34 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |