Jared Karros

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	22	18	84	3.44	3.42	25.3%	6.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.77
2024	23	MIX2 levels	15	15	68	2.79	2.66	27.7%	8.2%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.36
2025	24	AALAD	12	12	52	6.54	6.88	15.3%	8.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 7.71
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAD	1	1	1	5.27	5.27	15.2%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBLAD	4	4	21	5.20	5.21	16.0%	8.7%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBLAD	5	5	30	5.19	5.23	16.4%	8.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNestor Molina (age 27) · Andrew Quezada (age 26) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%15.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	84	340	86	23	10	82%	3.8	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.9%	3.44	4.77	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	84	340	86	23	10	82%	3.8	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.9%	3.44	3.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.7%	2.79	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.7%	2.79	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	27.7%	8.2%	19.5%	1.5%	2.79	2.66	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	12.4%	9.7%	2.6%	8.1%	6.54	7.71	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	12.4%	9.7%	2.6%	8.1%	6.54	7.71	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	15.3%	8.8%	6.4%	6.4%	6.54	6.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	3.6%	5.27	5.27	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	57	242	39	21	9	100%	5.7	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.21	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	51	214	35	19	8	100%	6.3	16.4%	8.9%	7.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.23	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	46	194	32	18	7	100%	5.8	16.6%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.25	5.31	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	4	4	21	89	14	8	3	100%	5.2	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.21	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	30	127	21	11	5	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.9%	7.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.23	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	33	139	23	13	5	100%	5.5	16.6%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.25	5.31	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	14	84	356	58	32	13	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.9%	7.4%	3.7%	5.22	4.88	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	76	31	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.9%	7.4%	3.7%	5.22	4.88	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		49	45	204	856	154	79	38	92%	4.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	4.4%	4.02	5.18	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	841	151	78	37	92%	4.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	4.4%	4.02	5.18	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 52 IPFIP 6.46 → 7.71 (+1.25)K% 15.3% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.26%	—	×0.810	12.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.84%	—	×1.100	9.72%
HR / BF /BF	6.43%	÷0.957	×1.200	8.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 6.46 → 7.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 34 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.07 (+0.73)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.810	22.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.79%	—	×1.100	11.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.063	×1.200	2.44%

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 34 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.59 (+0.74)K% 28.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.770	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.47%	—	×1.150	6.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.036	×1.250	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 71 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.77 (+1.19)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.68%	—	×0.740	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×1.180	8.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.025	×1.300	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 13 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.42 (+0.84)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.92%	—	×0.770	17.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.08%	—	×1.150	2.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.951	×1.250	2.74%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Karros (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.25	16.3%	7.4%	154	-0.02	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	81
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	81
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	80
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	79
Darrell Rasner R 2007 · 5.15 FIP	26	SP	5.15	9.9%	7.2%	3.6%	.284	4.43	13.1%	5.7%	113	-0.72	4.07	158	78
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	77
J.D. Martin R 2009 · 5.18 FIP	26	SP	5.18	10.9%	5.9%	4.1%	.263	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	48	-0.39	4.79	414	77
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	77
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	77
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	76
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	76
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	16.0%	8.8%	1.42	5.23
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*