Jared Karros — OGILVIE

Jared Karros P Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%15.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD5060

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	84	340	86	23	10	82%	3.8	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.9%	3.44	4.77	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	84	340	86	23	10	82%	3.8	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.9%	3.44	4.77	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	84	340	86	23	10	82%	3.8	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.9%	3.44	3.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.7%	2.79	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.7%	2.79	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	267	74	22	4	100%	4.5	27.7%	8.2%	19.5%	1.5%	2.79	2.66	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	12.4%	9.7%	2.6%	8.1%	6.54	7.71	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	12.4%	9.7%	2.6%	8.1%	6.54	7.71	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	12	12	52	249	38	22	16	100%	4.4	15.3%	8.8%	6.4%	6.4%	6.54	6.88	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	LAD	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	15.4%	8.6%	6.9%	4.0%	5.45	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	296	51	25	12	100%	5.8	17.3%	8.6%	8.7%	3.9%	5.28	5.24	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	69	291	52	25	11	100%	5.8	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	67	282	51	25	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	8.9%	9.0%	3.9%	5.22	5.25	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	270	48	25	11	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	4.1%	5.30	5.36	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	31	131	23	11	5	100%	6.2	17.3%	8.6%	8.7%	3.9%	5.28	5.24	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	44	186	33	16	7	100%	6.3	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	39	19	8	100%	6.4	17.9%	8.9%	9.0%	3.9%	5.22	5.25	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	39	20	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	4.1%	5.30	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	177	748	133	66	30	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.9%	8.9%	3.9%	5.25	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	150	75	34	100%	6.0	17.7%	8.9%	8.9%	3.9%	5.25	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		49	45	204	856	154	79	38	92%	4.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	4.4%	4.02	5.18	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	841	151	78	37	92%	4.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	4.4%	4.02	5.18	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Karros (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	15.4%	8.6%	4.0%	—	5.23	17.6%	8.9%	206	-0.22	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	86
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Trenton Toplikar R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.325	5.83	16.9%	4.2%	30	+0.58	4.32	232	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	81
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	81
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	81
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	80
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	79
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	79
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	78
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2022 · 6.36 FIP	25	SP	6.36	13.6%	8.2%	6.1%	.296	3.18	12.6%	3.5%	22	-3.18	3.18	237	78
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	78
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	17.2%	8.8%	1.53	5.29
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50