Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 11 | 62 | 246 | 82 | 8 | 8 | 69% | 3.9 | 26.1% | 3.7% | 22.4% | 4.5% | 3.18 | 3.86 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 11 | 62 | 246 | 82 | 8 | 8 | 69% | 3.9 | 33.3% | 3.3% | 30.1% | 3.3% | 3.18 | 2.52 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 17 | 17 | 65 | 282 | 80 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 17 | 17 | 65 | 282 | 80 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 28.4% | 9.6% | 18.8% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 411 | 99 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 2.51 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 411 | 99 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.1% | 7.3% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 2.51 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 137 | 567 | 148 | 49 | 21 | 83% | 4.7 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 3.68 | 4.54 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 137 | 567 | 148 | 49 | 21 | 83% | 4.7 | 26.1% | 8.6% | 17.5% | 3.7% | 3.68 | 4.01 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 145 | 643 | 136 | 74 | 25 | 81% | 4.7 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.14 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 145 | 643 | 136 | 74 | 25 | 81% | 4.7 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 6.14 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 67 | 291 | 60 | 31 | 12 | — | — | 20.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.00 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 60 | 254 | 60 | 31 | 12 | — | — | 23.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 5.58 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 239 | 46 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 5.36 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 53 | 223 | 41 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.67 | 5.87 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 44 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 5.36 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 39 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.67 | 5.87 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 51 | 275 | 1166 | 245 | 112 | 56 | 88% | 4.7 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 4.87 | 5.19 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 848 | 178 | 81 | 41 | 88% | 4.8 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 4.87 | 5.19 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 102 | 519 | 2199 | 487 | 204 | 86 | 86% | 4.4 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 4.28 | 4.55 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 39 | 200 | 847 | 188 | 79 | 33 | 86% | 4.4 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 4.28 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Landon Knack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.43 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 4.2% | — | 5.75 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 109 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 67 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.63 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 584 | 67 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 66 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 65 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 65 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 64 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 64 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 64 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 64 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.02 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.16 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.14 | 4.34 | 300 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 62 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 62 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 62 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 61 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.96 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .317 | 5.36 | 18.8% | 1.6% | 57 | +0.40 | 4.11 | 563 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 1.71 | 5.30 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |