Clarke Schmidt
P
New York Yankees
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.1 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 86 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 81
ERA3.98
FIP4.07
K%23.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP86
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p900.272
SL+8.3 (25%)
CT+4.9 (43%)
SI (8%)
CU (18%)
FB-4.2 (13%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 6 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 83% | 2.5 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 3.53 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 6 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 83% | 2.5 | 33.9% | 6.8% | 27.1% | 1.7% | 4.20 | 2.10 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 91 | 375 | 102 | 28 | 4 | 95% | 4.8 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 3.47 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 91 | 375 | 102 | 28 | 4 | 95% | 4.8 | 27.2% | 7.5% | 19.7% | 1.1% | 3.47 | 2.35 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 33% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 7.11 | 3.23 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 33% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 7.11 | 3.26 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 12 | 10 | 44 | 196 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 83% | 3.7 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 2.84 | 3.59 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 12 | 10 | 44 | 196 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 83% | 3.7 | 26.5% | 8.7% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 2.84 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 11 | 91 | 375 | 102 | 29 | 6 | 30% | 2.5 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17.9% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 2.76 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 11 | 91 | 375 | 102 | 29 | 6 | 30% | 2.5 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 2.67 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 32 | 159 | 694 | 149 | 46 | 24 | 97% | 4.8 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 3.89 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 32 | 159 | 694 | 149 | 46 | 24 | 97% | 4.8 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.06 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 396 | 111 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 2.89 | 3.11 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 396 | 111 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 2.5% | 2.89 | 3.14 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 86 | 343 | 84 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 3.03 | 3.81 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 86 | 343 | 84 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.03 | 3.59 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 80 | 339 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 76 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 76 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 4.78 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 5.09 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 154 | 124 | 733 | 3106 | 715 | 269 | 99 | 81% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 3.99 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 847 | 195 | 73 | 27 | 80% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 112 | 589 | 2471 | 575 | 198 | 57 | 77% | 4.1 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.42 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 840 | 195 | 67 | 19 | 77% | 4.1 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Clarke Schmidt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.38 | 23.6% | 14.7% | 222 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 58 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 58 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 57 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 55 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 55 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 54 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 53 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 53 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 53 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 52 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 52 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 51 |
| Bruce Billings R 2025 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.01 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 0.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 121 | 51 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.09 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 188 | +0.27 | 2.34 | 577 | 50 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 50 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 50 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 50 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.50 | 21.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .309 | 3.21 | 29.5% | 21.0% | 147 | -0.29 | 1.79 | 806 | 50 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 50 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2029 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 66 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 1.30 | 4.40 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |