Clarke Schmidt

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX3 levels	19	19	97	2.89	3.14	28.0%	8.1%	2.7	K 26.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.12
2025	29	MIX2 levels	16	16	86	3.03	3.59	24.5%	9.0%	1.9	K 23.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.82
2026	30	MIX3 levels	6	2	8	3.52	1.80	43.3%	3.3%	0.3	K 43.3% · BB 3.3% · FIP 1.69
2027PROJ	31	MLBNYY	12	12	75	3.94	4.15	24.1%	9.2%	1.1
2028PROJ	32	MLBNYY	11	11	68	4.33	4.52	23.3%	9.6%	0.8
2029PROJ	33	MLBNYY	9	9	54	4.62	4.81	22.4%	10.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.860First FA2028

2027Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs90

K%55

FB Velo47

CompsJose Contreras (age 31) · Robert Stock (age 31) · Elian Leyva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.94

FIP4.15

K%24.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.1	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$8M		$9M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	6	5	15	59	20	4	1	83%	2.5	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	2.4%	4.20	3.53	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	6	5	15	59	20	4	1	83%	2.5	33.9%	6.8%	27.1%	1.7%	4.20	2.10	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	91	375	102	28	4	95%	4.8	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	1.1%	3.47	3.09	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	91	375	102	28	4	95%	4.8	27.2%	7.5%	19.7%	1.1%	3.47	2.35	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	3	1	6	33	7	5	0	33%	2.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	0.0%	7.11	3.23	+0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	3	1	6	33	7	5	0	33%	2.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	0.0%	7.11	3.26	+0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	12	10	44	196	52	17	7	83%	3.7	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	3.5%	2.84	3.81	+0.8
2021	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	12	10	44	196	52	17	7	83%	3.7	26.5%	8.7%	17.9%	3.6%	2.84	3.96	+0.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	91	375	102	29	6	30%	2.5	25.7%	7.9%	17.9%	1.5%	3.18	2.77	+2.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	11	91	375	102	29	6	30%	2.5	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	1.6%	3.18	2.67	+2.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	32	159	694	149	46	24	97%	4.8	21.5%	6.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.64	3.90	+2.8
2023	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	32	159	694	149	46	24	97%	4.8	21.5%	6.6%	14.8%	3.5%	4.64	4.06	+2.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	396	111	32	10	100%	5.1	26.3%	8.5%	17.8%	2.1%	2.89	3.12	+2.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	97	396	111	32	10	100%	5.1	26.3%	8.5%	17.8%	2.1%	2.89	3.12	+2.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	97	396	111	32	10	100%	5.1	28.0%	8.1%	19.9%	2.5%	2.89	3.14	+2.7
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	86	343	84	31	9	100%	5.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	3.03	3.82	+1.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	86	343	84	31	9	100%	5.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	3.03	3.82	+1.6
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	86	343	84	31	9	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.6%	3.03	3.59	+1.9
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	2	8	30	13	1	1	33%	1.3	43.3%	3.3%	40.0%	3.3%	3.52	1.69	+0.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	2	8	30	13	1	1	33%	1.3	43.3%	3.3%	40.0%	3.3%	3.52	1.69	+0.3
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	2	8	30	13	1	1	33%	1.3	43.3%	3.3%	40.0%	3.3%	3.52	1.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	67	394	1674	386	136	47	68%	4.0	23.1%	8.1%	14.9%	2.8%	3.81	3.73	+7.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	NYY	12	12	75	317	76	29	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.15	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	286	67	27	9	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.22	4.41	+0.8
2029	33	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	54	229	51	23	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.50	4.69	+0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	68	287	67	28	9	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.52	+0.8
2029	33	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	51	23	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.62	4.81	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	87	516	2189	504	187	64	74%	4.4	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.9%	3.97	3.85	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	34	200	848	195	72	25	74%	4.4	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.9%	3.97	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		151	114	596	2501	588	199	59	75%	3.9	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.4%	3.59	3.42	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	839	197	67	20	75%	3.9	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.4%	3.59	3.42	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 7 IPFIP 0.13 → 0.83 (+0.70)K% 40.7% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.810	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.100	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.030	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 0.13 → 0.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 8 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.87 (+1.35)K% 43.3% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.33%	—	×0.810	35.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.100	3.67%
HR / BF /BF	6.67%	÷1.027	×1.200	7.79%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 33 IPFIP 1.52 → 1.93 (+0.41)K% 33.1% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.09%	—	×0.880	29.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.050	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.006	×1.100	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 26 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.81 (+0.25)K% 28.8% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.83%	—	×0.880	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.050	7.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.149	×1.100	3.45%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 6 IPFIP 6.54 → 7.50 (+0.96)K% 18.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.810	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	7.41%	÷1.053	×1.200	8.44%

Result: FIP 6.54 → 7.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 63 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.26 (+0.79)K% 25.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.46%	—	×0.770	19.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.150	10.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.960	×1.250	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 19 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.43 (+0.64)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.76%	—	×0.810	21.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.41%	—	×1.100	1.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.960	×1.200	1.76%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Yankees East · 8 IPFIP 2.33 → 4.43 (+2.10)K% 42.4% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.42%	—	×0.680	28.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Clarke Schmidt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	24.1%	9.2%	2.8%	—	4.53	22.9%	13.1%	122	+0.38	—	—	—
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	62
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	61
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	59
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	59
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	57
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	55
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	54
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	54
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,798	54
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	53
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	52
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.12	728	51
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	51
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	50
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	50
Kodai Senga R 2024 · 4.69 FIP	31	SP	4.69	14.9%	13.8%	2.0%	.324	4.51	24.0%	11.5%	175	-0.18	3.40	352	50
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	50
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	49
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	49
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	84	23.2%	8.7%	1.12	3.94
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Steve Foucault ('73-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.5	83	22.4%*	8.9%*	1.12*	3.63*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80
Adam Warren ('19)	2.5	70	20.8%	8.3%	1.02	3.53