Kodai Senga — OGILVIE

Kodai Senga P New York Mets

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 202 lbs MLB peak 1.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA3.90

FIP4.20

K%25.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

SI (3%)

FB-1.1 (46%)

CT-2.1 (16%)

SL-2.4 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	29	29	166	694	202	77	17	100%	5.7	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.5%	2.98	3.40	+3.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	29	29	166	694	202	77	17	100%	5.7	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.5%	2.98	3.40	+3.1
2023	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	29	29	166	694	202	77	17	100%	5.7	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.4%	2.98	3.39	+3.1
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	19	81	24	9	2	100%	3.2	14.4%	13.8%	0.5%	2.0%	3.72	4.74	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	19	81	24	9	2	100%	3.2	14.4%	13.8%	0.5%	2.0%	3.72	4.74	+0.0
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	19	81	24	9	2	100%	3.2	29.6%	11.1%	18.5%	2.5%	3.72	3.36	+0.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	127	542	125	59	13	100%	5.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.5%	3.27	4.01	+1.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	127	542	125	59	13	100%	5.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.5%	3.27	4.01	+1.3
2025	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	127	542	125	59	13	100%	5.1	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	2.4%	3.27	3.86	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	60	343	1460	388	171	43	76%	4.3	26.6%	11.7%	14.9%	2.9%	3.70	3.96	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	12	76	344	85	44	14	39%	2.5	25.8%	14.4%	11.4%	4.9%	6.39	5.46	-0.8
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	12	76	344	85	44	14	39%	2.5	25.8%	14.4%	11.4%	4.9%	6.39	5.46	-0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A RAW	NYM	1	1	3	15	2	1	0	100%	3.3	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	5.40	2.82	—
2026	33	AA RAW	NYM	1	1	6	21	5	1	1	100%	6.0	23.8%	4.8%	19.0%	4.8%	1.50	4.31	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	NYM	2	2	9	44	10	4	0	100%	4.3	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	0.0%	5.19	2.33	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	NYM	27	8	58	264	68	38	13	30%	2.1	25.8%	14.4%	11.4%	4.9%	7.14	5.45	-0.6
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	NYM	27	8	58	264	68	38	13	30%	2.1	25.8%	14.4%	11.4%	4.9%	7.14	5.45	-0.6
ROS	33	MLB MLE	NYM	11	0	11	48	12	6	1	0%	1.0	25.1%	12.7%	12.3%	2.9%	3.90	4.20	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	NYM	10	0	11	46	12	6	1	0%	1.1	25.1%	12.7%	12.3%	2.9%	3.90	4.20	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	87	392	97	50	15	—	—	24.8%	12.8%	12.0%	3.9%	6.07	5.29	-0.5
FULL	33	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	69	293	97	50	15	—	—	33.1%	17.1%	16.0%	5.3%	7.65	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	114	481	116	64	18	100%	6.0	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%	3.8%	4.95	5.19	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	102	432	100	60	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.8%	9.2%	4.1%	5.30	5.53	-0.7
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	108	456	110	61	17	100%	6.0	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%	3.8%	4.95	5.19	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	93	393	91	54	16	100%	5.8	23.1%	13.8%	9.2%	4.1%	5.30	5.53	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	94	556	2358	601	292	78	76%	4.5	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.22	4.33	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	849	216	105	28	76%	4.5	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.22	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		91	72	388	1661	425	200	49	79%	4.3	25.6%	12.0%	13.6%	3.0%	3.78	4.09	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	37	200	855	219	103	25	79%	4.3	25.6%	12.0%	13.6%	3.0%	3.78	4.09	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kodai Senga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	24.2%	11.6%	2.7%	—	5.35	23.6%	10.0%	216	+0.98	—	—	—
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	68
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	67
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	67
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	60
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	60
Jesse Chavez R 2017 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	20.3%	7.3%	4.7%	.303	4.02	22.5%	16.9%	190	-0.87	2.03	804	59
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	59
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	58
Brad Peacock R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	33	SP-	4.70	21.0%	9.8%	3.9%	.327	3.82	23.9%	13.3%	60	-0.88	2.97	533	55
Brandon McCarthy R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	33	SP	4.84	22.5%	11.5%	4.0%	.288	3.82	19.0%	12.4%	171	-1.02	3.09	248	54
Aníbal Sánchez R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	22.1%	6.0%	5.5%	.349	3.97	20.8%	13.8%	356	-1.05	3.49	869	54
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	54
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	53
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	52
Homer Bailey R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	33	SP	4.06	21.4%	7.5%	3.3%	.297	4.37	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.31	4.06	509	51
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.5%	17.0%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	51
Doug Fister R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	20.1%	8.8%	2.0%	.298	4.77	13.8%	7.2%	66	+1.14	3.63	455	50
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.50	348	50
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	50
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	114	23.8%	12.8%	1.34	4.73
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47