Kodai Senga
P
New York Mets
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 202 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA3.78
FIP4.31
xFIP4.09
SIERA4.05
K%23.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%12.5%
IP127
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p8430.6%
K%
p7526.8%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SI (4%)
FB-1.1 (42%)
CT-2.1 (23%)
SL-2.4 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 29 | 166 | 694 | 202 | 77 | 17 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 2.98 | 3.38 | +3.6 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 6 | 6 | 19 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 15.2% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 25 | 25 | 127 | 542 | 125 | 59 | 13 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | New York Mets | 3 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 29.7% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 7.07 | 3.69 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 25.8% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 3.30 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 55 | 236 | 63 | 26 | 7 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 95 | 43 | 11 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 81 | 33 | 9 | 26.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 63 | 27 | 7 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 49 | 22 | 6 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 24.0% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 63 | 326 | 1381 | 356 | 159 | 34 | 25.8% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.31 | 3.71 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 846 | 218 | 97 | 21 | 25.8% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.31 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kodai Senga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 24.6% | 11.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.29 | 25.7% | 14.6% | 220 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 64 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 63 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 62 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 61 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 61 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.41 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 0.7% | .287 | 3.76 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 95 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 187 | 61 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 60 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 60 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 59 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 59 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 59 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 59 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 59 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 59 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 58 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 58 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 57 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.75 | 14.3% | 8.1% | 3.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 205 | 57 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.23 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 622 | 57 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2028
NTC
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $15M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $15M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $9M | +$0.0M | ||