Kodai Senga
P
New York Mets
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 1.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.29
FIP4.60
K%24.8%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7496.2
Whiff%
p7028.5%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
SI (4%)
FB-1.1 (42%)
CT-2.1 (21%)
SL-2.4 (14%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 29 | 166 | 694 | 202 | 77 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 3.40 | +3.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 29 | 166 | 694 | 202 | 77 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 2.98 | 3.39 | +3.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 6 | 19 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 15.2% | 16.2% | -0.9% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 6 | 19 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 29.6% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.36 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 127 | 542 | 125 | 59 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.27 | 4.01 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 127 | 542 | 125 | 59 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 3.86 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 11 | 57 | 264 | 64 | 33 | 13 | 73% | 3.8 | 25.5% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 7.22 | 6.38 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 68 | 285 | 71 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 71 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 125 | 549 | 135 | 69 | 23 | — | — | 24.6% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 107 | 451 | 135 | 69 | 23 | — | — | 29.9% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 5.2% | 6.59 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 115 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 102 | 432 | 99 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.45 | 5.68 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 90 | 382 | 83 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.81 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 109 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 90 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 5.45 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 68 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.81 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 118 | 667 | 2829 | 705 | 356 | 103 | 97% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.58 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 848 | 211 | 107 | 31 | 97% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 71 | 370 | 1581 | 404 | 191 | 49 | 95% | 4.9 | 25.6% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 4.18 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 855 | 219 | 103 | 27 | 95% | 4.9 | 25.6% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kodai Senga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 24.2% | 11.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.66 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 307 | +1.27 | — | — | — |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 59 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 56 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.25 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .262 | 4.26 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 307 | +0.01 | 3.43 | 645 | 56 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 55 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 55 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.58 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .296 | 4.03 | 26.7% | 20.7% | 134 | -0.55 | 2.87 | 864 | 54 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 54 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.42 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.83 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 54 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.14 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.22 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 173 | +0.08 | 3.02 | 646 | 52 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 52 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 51 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 51 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.97 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 52 | +0.52 | 3.97 | 509 | 51 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 50 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 50 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.43 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.32 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 143 | +0.89 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 50 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 50 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 50 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.78 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .307 | 4.32 | 23.6% | 17.0% | 230 | +0.54 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 49 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.50 | 19.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .254 | 5.36 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 59 | +1.86 | 2.49 | 433 | 49 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 108 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 1.49 | 5.04 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Caleb Smith ('22) | 4 | 104 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 1.67 | 4.47 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |