Michael Kopech — OGILVIE

Michael Kopech P Oklahoma City Comets

+0.2 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.84

FIP4.96

xFIP5.76

SIERA6.41

K%25.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%10.0%

IP75

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†6060

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

FB+1.4 (83%)

SL (2%)

CT (15%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	A	Greenville Drive	16	15	65	270	70	27	2	19.2%	11.8%	1.0%	2.63	3.52	+1.1
2016	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	11	11	52	205	82	29	1	30.8%	16.3%	0.7%	2.25	2.95	+1.2
2017	21	AAA	Charlotte Knights	25	25	134	550	172	65	6	25.5%	13.0%	1.5%	2.88	3.40	+2.9
2018	22	MLB	Chicago White Sox	28	28	141	611	185	62	13	26.9%	10.6%	1.9%	3.84	3.23	+3.3
2021	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	44	4	69	285	103	23	9	36.1%	8.1%	2.8%	3.50	2.63	+1.9
2022	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	25	25	119	494	105	57	15	21.3%	11.5%	3.2%	3.54	4.53	+1.0
2023	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	22.7%	15.4%	4.7%	5.43	5.73	-0.6
2024	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	31.5%	11.5%	3.1%	3.46	3.58	+1.1
2025	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	20.7%	27.9%	1.9%	8.34	5.92	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	LAD	14	14	75	318	85	49	10	26.9%	15.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.89	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	LAD	13	13	73	307	81	47	10	26.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.95	4.99	+0.1
2028	32	MLB	LAD	13	13	70	295	76	46	10	25.6%	15.5%	3.3%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
2029	33	MLB	LAD	12	12	67	282	70	44	10	25.0%	15.7%	3.4%	5.16	5.23	-0.2
2030	34	MLB	LAD	12	12	63	268	65	43	9	24.3%	15.9%	3.5%	5.29	5.37	-0.3
2031	35	MLB	LAD	60	—	60	252	59	41	9	23.5%	16.2%	3.6%	5.43	5.52	-0.4
2032	36	MLB	LAD	56	—	56	236	54	39	9	22.8%	16.4%	3.7%	5.59	5.69	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			276	136	800	3407	875	438	87	25.7%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.96	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—			69	34	200	851	219	109	22	25.7%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.96	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kopech (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	26.9%	15.3%	3.2%	—	5.11	25.6%	10.1%	209	+0.22	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	69
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	66
Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	65
Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	65
Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.4%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	63
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	30	SW	4.06	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	3.94	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.12	1.69	468	63
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	62
J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP	29	SU	4.26	27.4%	12.7%	3.4%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.14	4.26	258	62
Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	30	SW	4.24	22.2%	11.1%	2.9%	.349	3.54	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.70	3.05	227	61
Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	61
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	30	SW	3.79	24.5%	10.6%	2.6%	.307	3.35	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.44	2.91	210	61
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	60
Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SW	4.21	31.3%	18.5%	2.6%	.274	4.45	25.5%	10.0%	40	+0.24	3.19	266	60
AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	30	SW	3.96	27.9%	12.8%	2.9%	.288	5.08	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.12	2.55	266	59
Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	30	SU	3.71	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	168	59
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.95 FIP	30	SU	5.95	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.91	18.9%	8.4%	101	-2.04	2.36	309	59
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	30	SU	5.10	19.8%	11.1%	4.1%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	-0.07	2.39	676	59
Dan Winkler R 2026 · 5.23 FIP	30	SU	5.23	23.7%	14.5%	4.2%	.182	4.23	22.9%	8.3%	86	-1.00	2.47	231	58
Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	20.6%	12.0%	2.6%	.305	5.09	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.79	2.72	481	58
José Cisnero R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	24.5%	11.2%	2.7%	.307	3.37	24.1%	12.2%	116	-0.55	2.26	279	58

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.