Michael Kopech

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MLBCWS	30	27	129	5.43	6.05	22.7%	15.4%	-0.9
2024	28	MLBLAD	67	0	68	3.46	3.65	31.5%	11.5%	0.7
2025	29	MIX2 levels	30	1	23	8.34	6.23	22.1%	27.0%	-0.4	K 20.4% · BB 25.4% · FIP 5.63
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBLAD	16	0	17	4.42	4.64	25.3%	13.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ	32	MLBLAD	122	0	128	4.71	4.90	24.5%	13.6%	-0.5
2029PROJ	33	MLBLAD	97	0	102	4.99	5.18	23.7%	14.1%	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo90

K%52

xwOBA vs34

CompsScott Copeland (age 31) · Hisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Mike Wright Jr. (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.42

FIP4.64

K%25.3%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP171

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	16	15	65	270	70	27	2	94%	4.1	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.0%	2.63	3.51	—
2015	19	A RAW	Greenville Drive	16	15	65	270	70	27	2	94%	4.1	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	0.7%	2.63	2.59	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	11	11	52	205	82	29	1	100%	4.7	30.8%	16.3%	14.5%	0.8%	2.25	2.99	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	11	11	52	205	82	29	1	100%	4.7	40.0%	14.1%	25.9%	0.5%	2.25	1.87	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	134	550	172	65	6	100%	5.4	25.5%	13.0%	12.6%	1.5%	2.88	3.39	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	134	550	172	65	6	100%	5.4	31.3%	11.8%	19.5%	1.1%	2.88	2.57	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	611	185	62	13	100%	5.0	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	1.9%	3.84	3.20	+3.8
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	611	185	62	13	100%	5.0	30.3%	10.1%	20.1%	2.1%	3.84	2.99	+4.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	44	4	69	285	103	23	9	9%	1.6	36.1%	8.1%	28.1%	3.1%	3.50	2.77	+1.5
2021	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	44	4	69	285	103	23	9	9%	1.6	36.1%	8.1%	28.1%	3.2%	3.50	2.81	+1.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	25	25	119	494	105	57	15	100%	4.8	21.3%	11.5%	9.7%	3.0%	3.54	4.40	+1.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	25	25	119	494	105	57	15	100%	4.8	21.3%	11.5%	9.7%	3.0%	3.54	4.41	+1.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	90%	4.3	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	4.8%	5.43	5.78	-0.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	90%	4.3	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	4.9%	5.43	6.05	-0.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.1%	3.46	3.59	+0.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.1%	3.46	3.59	+0.8
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.2%	3.46	3.65	+0.7
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	20.4%	25.4%	-5.0%	1.9%	8.34	5.63	-0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	20.4%	25.4%	-5.0%	1.9%	8.34	5.63	-0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	22.1%	27.0%	-4.9%	1.6%	8.34	6.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			184	60	411	1770	457	218	66	33%	2.2	25.8%	12.3%	13.5%	3.7%	4.14	4.55	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	LAD	16	0	17	72	18	9	2	0%	1.1	25.3%	13.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAD	122	0	128	539	132	73	17	0%	1.0	24.5%	13.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.90	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	LAD	97	0	102	432	102	61	15	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.1%	9.6%	3.5%	4.99	5.18	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAD	122	0	128	540	132	74	17	0%	1.0	24.5%	13.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.90	-0.5
2029	33	MLB CTX	LAD	97	0	102	431	102	61	15	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.1%	9.6%	3.5%	4.99	5.18	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		403	60	641	2741	691	352	98	15%	1.6	25.2%	12.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.39	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		126	19	200	855	216	110	31	15%	1.6	25.2%	12.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.39	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		276	136	800	3407	875	435	87	49%	2.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.95	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	34	200	851	219	109	22	49%	2.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.95	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 12 IPFIP 6.53 → 6.66 (+0.13)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.99%	—	×0.900	26.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 6.53 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 126 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.00 (+0.24)K% 31.3% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.31%	—	×0.880	27.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×1.050	11.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.319	×1.100	1.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABirmingham Barons · 119 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.55 (+0.90)K% 31.8% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.76%	—	×0.810	25.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.30%	—	×1.100	13.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.894	×1.200	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 15 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.14 (+0.33)K% 27.4% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.42%	—	×0.880	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.050	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.150	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Salem Red Sox · 52 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.99 (+1.20)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.15%	—	×1.150	16.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.49%	÷0.787	×1.250	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AGreenville Drive · 65 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.51 (+0.93)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.740	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.979	×1.300	0.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kopech (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.02	24.1%	10.3%	230	+0.38	—	—	—
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	52
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	52
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	51
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	50
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	50
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	49
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	49
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	48
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	47
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	47
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	46
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	45
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	44
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,288	44
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	44
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	44
Luke Farrell R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	31	SP-	4.87	17.8%	11.0%	3.4%	.289	4.85	17.3%	7.9%	55	-0.02	3.69	584	44
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	42
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	42
Joe Biagini R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	31	SP	4.80	18.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.309	4.53	16.4%	6.6%	39	-0.27	2.66	624	42

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	116	25.2%	13.0%	1.34	4.39
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.2	112	24.9%	11.3%	1.69	4.55
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11