Michael Kopech — OGILVIE

Michael Kopech P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.89

FIP5.04

K%26.5%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL4040

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

FB+1.4 (83%)

SL (2%)

CT (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	16	15	65	270	70	27	2	94%	4.1	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.0%	2.63	3.51	—
2015	19	A RAW	Greenville Drive	16	15	65	270	70	27	2	94%	4.1	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	0.7%	2.63	2.59	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	11	11	52	205	82	29	1	100%	4.7	30.8%	16.3%	14.5%	0.8%	2.25	2.99	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	11	11	52	205	82	29	1	100%	4.7	40.0%	14.1%	25.9%	0.5%	2.25	1.87	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	134	550	172	65	6	100%	5.4	25.5%	13.0%	12.6%	1.5%	2.88	3.39	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	134	550	172	65	6	100%	5.4	31.3%	11.8%	19.5%	1.1%	2.88	2.57	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	611	185	62	13	100%	5.0	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	1.9%	3.84	3.20	+3.0
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	611	185	62	13	100%	5.0	30.3%	10.1%	20.1%	2.1%	3.84	2.99	+3.3
2021	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	44	4	69	285	103	23	9	9%	1.6	36.1%	8.1%	28.1%	3.1%	3.50	2.77	+1.5
2021	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	44	4	69	285	103	23	9	9%	1.6	36.1%	8.1%	28.1%	3.2%	3.50	2.81	+1.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	25	25	119	494	105	57	15	100%	4.8	21.3%	11.5%	9.7%	3.0%	3.54	4.40	+0.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	25	25	119	494	105	57	15	100%	4.8	21.3%	11.5%	9.7%	3.0%	3.54	4.41	+0.7
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	90%	4.3	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	4.8%	5.43	5.78	-1.3
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	90%	4.3	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	4.8%	5.43	5.78	-1.3
2023	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	30	27	129	591	134	91	29	90%	4.3	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	4.9%	5.43	6.05	-1.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.1%	3.46	3.59	+0.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.1%	3.46	3.59	+0.8
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	68	279	88	32	9	0%	1.0	31.5%	11.5%	20.1%	3.2%	3.46	3.65	+0.7
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	20.0%	25.4%	-5.4%	1.9%	8.34	5.66	-0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	20.0%	25.4%	-5.4%	1.9%	8.34	5.66	-0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	23	122	27	33	2	3%	0.8	22.1%	27.0%	-4.9%	1.6%	8.34	6.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			184	60	411	1770	457	218	66	33%	2.2	25.8%	12.3%	13.5%	3.7%	4.14	4.55	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	LAD	7	0	7	30	8	5	1	0%	1.0	26.5%	16.2%	10.3%	3.2%	4.89	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	70	296	76	49	10	0%	1.0	25.7%	16.5%	9.2%	3.4%	5.12	5.27	-0.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAD	62	0	65	274	68	46	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	16.9%	8.0%	3.7%	5.36	5.53	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAD	67	0	70	296	76	49	10	0%	1.0	25.7%	16.5%	9.2%	3.4%	5.12	5.27	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAD	62	0	65	274	68	46	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	16.9%	8.0%	3.7%	5.36	5.53	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	60	546	2340	602	313	86	19%	1.7	25.7%	13.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.41	4.65	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		115	22	200	857	220	115	31	19%	1.7	25.7%	13.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.41	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		276	136	800	3407	875	435	87	49%	2.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.95	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	34	200	851	219	109	22	49%	2.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.95	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kopech (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	26.5%	16.2%	3.2%	—	5.39	25.4%	8.7%	135	+0.35	—	—	—
Jimmy Nelson R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SW	4.28	26.9%	14.6%	2.9%	.329	1.32	37.9%	26.7%	29	-2.96	1.32	650	56
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	53
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	52
Nick Tropeano R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	21.5%	12.1%	2.6%	.302	4.45	20.8%	1.9%	21	+0.21	2.34	446	52
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	52
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	50
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	50
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	50
Shelby Miller R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	25.4%	12.8%	3.3%	.278	3.59	24.9%	16.4%	151	-0.79	2.80	694	50
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	49
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	49
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	49
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	47
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	47
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	47
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	47
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.81	18.7%	8.9%	101	-2.15	2.51	309	47
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	47
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	47
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	70	25.8%	16.5%	1.32	5.11
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91