Michael Kopech
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA4.96
FIP5.14
K%26.6%
BB%16.7%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.5
Whiff%
p7228.7%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
FB+1.4 (83%)
SL (2%)
CT (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | 16 | 15 | 65 | 270 | 70 | 27 | 2 | 94% | 4.1 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 1.0% | 2.63 | 3.53 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | 16 | 15 | 65 | 270 | 70 | 27 | 2 | 94% | 4.1 | 25.9% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 0.7% | 2.63 | 2.59 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 11 | 11 | 52 | 205 | 82 | 29 | 1 | 100% | 4.7 | 30.8% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 1.1% | 2.25 | 3.14 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 11 | 11 | 52 | 205 | 82 | 29 | 1 | 100% | 4.7 | 40.0% | 14.1% | 25.9% | 0.5% | 2.25 | 1.87 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 134 | 550 | 172 | 65 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | 2.88 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 134 | 550 | 172 | 65 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 31.3% | 11.8% | 19.5% | 1.1% | 2.88 | 2.57 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 141 | 611 | 185 | 62 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.9% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.06 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 141 | 611 | 185 | 62 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 30.3% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 2.99 | +4.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 44 | 4 | 69 | 285 | 103 | 23 | 9 | 9% | 1.6 | 36.1% | 8.1% | 28.1% | 3.1% | 3.50 | 2.75 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 44 | 4 | 69 | 285 | 103 | 23 | 9 | 9% | 1.6 | 36.1% | 8.1% | 28.1% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 2.81 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 25 | 25 | 119 | 494 | 105 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 25 | 25 | 119 | 494 | 105 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 27 | 129 | 591 | 134 | 91 | 29 | 90% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.43 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 27 | 129 | 591 | 134 | 91 | 29 | 90% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.43 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 0 | 68 | 279 | 88 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 11.5% | 20.1% | 3.4% | 3.46 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 0 | 68 | 279 | 88 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 11.5% | 20.1% | 3.2% | 3.46 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 23 | 122 | 27 | 33 | 2 | 3% | 0.8 | 20.7% | 27.9% | -7.2% | 2.0% | 8.34 | 5.97 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 23 | 122 | 27 | 33 | 2 | 3% | 0.8 | 22.1% | 27.0% | -4.9% | 1.6% | 8.34 | 6.23 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 85 | 53 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 51 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 69 | 48 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 5.63 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 76 | 50 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 69 | 48 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 5.63 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 60 | 546 | 2340 | 602 | 316 | 87 | 19% | 1.7 | 25.7% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.43 | 4.67 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 22 | 200 | 857 | 220 | 116 | 32 | 19% | 1.7 | 25.7% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.43 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 276 | 136 | 800 | 3407 | 875 | 438 | 87 | 49% | 2.9 | 25.7% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.96 | +13.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 34 | 200 | 851 | 219 | 110 | 22 | 49% | 2.9 | 25.7% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Kopech (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 26.6% | 16.7% | 3.3% | — | 5.49 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 135 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 53 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 52 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 51 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.95 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 134 | 50 |
| Derek Eitel R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 50 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.77 | 18.6% | 19.3% | 3.3% | .238 | 5.06 | 18.9% | 3.2% | 33 | -0.71 | 4.11 | 563 | 49 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 48 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 48 |
| Jon Duplantier R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.5% | 18.1% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 435 | 48 |
| Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.48 | 20.8% | 1.9% | 21 | +0.27 | 2.28 | 446 | 47 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 47 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 47 |
| Shelby Miller R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .278 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 16.4% | 151 | -0.59 | 2.93 | 694 | 47 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 47 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.90 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 200 | 47 |
| Bubby Rossman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.03 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 1.8% | .306 | 6.60 | 16.3% | -0.2% | 22 | +2.57 | 3.67 | 182 | 46 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 46 |
| Mark Appel R 2026 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 45 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 45 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 1.35 | 5.20 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |