Nick Martinez
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 35
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA3.67
FIP3.89
K%15.6%
BB%4.9%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 176 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
CH+3.0 (28%)
CT+1.9 (20%)
FB+1.8 (42%)
SI (31%)
CU (7%)
SL-3.2 (3%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 156 | 683 | 95 | 51 | 17 | 90% | 5.2 | 13.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 4.22 | +2.1 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 156 | 683 | 95 | 51 | 17 | 90% | 5.2 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 22 | 144 | 617 | 90 | 36 | 16 | 71% | 4.6 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 22 | 144 | 617 | 90 | 36 | 16 | 71% | 4.6 | 14.6% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 149 | 627 | 90 | 35 | 29 | 80% | 5.0 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 4.77 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 149 | 627 | 90 | 35 | 29 | 80% | 5.0 | 14.4% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 4.77 | 5.13 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 47 | 10 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 41 | 15 | 21% | 2.3 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 3.47 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 47 | 10 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 41 | 15 | 21% | 2.3 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 3.47 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 9 | 110 | 461 | 106 | 39 | 12 | 14% | 1.8 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 3.43 | 3.77 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 9 | 110 | 461 | 106 | 39 | 12 | 14% | 1.8 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 2.6% | 3.43 | 3.65 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 42 | 16 | 142 | 570 | 116 | 18 | 13 | 38% | 3.4 | 20.4% | 3.2% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 3.10 | 2.97 | +4.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 42 | 16 | 142 | 570 | 116 | 18 | 13 | 38% | 3.4 | 20.4% | 3.2% | 17.2% | 2.3% | 3.10 | 3.04 | +3.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 26 | 166 | 683 | 116 | 41 | 22 | 65% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 26 | 166 | 683 | 116 | 41 | 22 | 65% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 18 | 18 | 105 | 428 | 62 | 19 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 2.65 | 3.85 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | TB | — | — | 176 | 724 | 108 | 34 | 19 | — | — | 14.9% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.06 | 3.87 | +3.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | TB | — | — | 176 | 741 | 108 | 34 | 19 | — | — | 14.6% | 4.5% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.06 | 3.85 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 112 | 471 | 70 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 97 | 411 | 57 | 25 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 13.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 84 | 353 | 45 | 24 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 12.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 112 | 473 | 71 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 97 | 410 | 57 | 25 | 14 | 100% | 6.9 | 13.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 84 | 355 | 45 | 24 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 12.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 324 | 178 | 1268 | 5336 | 874 | 338 | 174 | 55% | 3.9 | 16.4% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.31 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 28 | 200 | 842 | 138 | 53 | 27 | 55% | 3.9 | 16.4% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 301 | 152 | 1079 | 4517 | 753 | 282 | 138 | 50% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.15 | +15.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 28 | 200 | 838 | 140 | 52 | 26 | 50% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 18.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.98 | 13.9% | 7.8% | 292 | +0.78 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 51 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 49 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 47 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 46 |
| Chris Young R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 45 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 44 |
| Ross Wolf R 2023 · 3.39 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.39 | 8.1% | 5.5% | 0.5% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 106 | 42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 42 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 41 |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 40 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.08 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.11 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 130 | +1.03 | 3.93 | 413 | 40 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.23 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .337 | 5.96 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.73 | 4.23 | 443 | 39 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 38 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 36 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.19 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 264 | 36 |
| Leo Medrano R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 36 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 36 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 36 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.11 | 287 | 35 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.47 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 214 | 35 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 105 | 15.2% | 5.9% | 1.27 | 4.51 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Cole Irvin ('24) | 5 | 118 | 17.1% | 5.6% | 1.28 | 4.46 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |