Nick Martinez — OGILVIE

Nick Martinez P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 35 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION166 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.66

FIP3.87

K%15.5%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 182 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p1017.6%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

CH+3.0 (26%)

CT+1.9 (22%)

FB+1.8 (44%)

SI (31%)

CU (4%)

SL-3.2 (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	156	683	95	51	17	90%	5.2	13.6%	7.5%	6.1%	2.4%	3.75	4.22	+1.3
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	156	683	95	51	17	90%	5.2	13.9%	7.5%	6.4%	2.5%	3.75	4.28	+1.1
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	144	617	90	36	16	71%	4.6	12.6%	6.0%	6.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	22	144	617	90	36	16	71%	4.6	14.6%	5.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.32	4.05	+1.5
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	149	627	90	35	29	80%	5.0	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	4.5%	4.77	5.09	-0.3
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	149	627	90	35	29	80%	5.0	14.4%	5.6%	8.8%	4.6%	4.77	5.13	-0.4
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	47	10	106	448	95	41	15	21%	2.3	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	3.47	4.26	+0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	47	10	106	448	95	41	15	21%	2.3	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	3.47	4.30	+0.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	63	9	110	461	106	39	12	14%	1.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.5%	3.43	3.62	+1.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	63	9	110	461	106	39	12	14%	1.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.5%	3.43	3.62	+1.2
2023	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	63	9	110	461	106	39	12	14%	1.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.6%	3.43	3.65	+1.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.1%	3.10	2.94	+2.8
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.1%	3.10	2.94	+2.8
2024	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.10	3.04	+2.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.06	+1.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.06	+1.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.2%	4.45	4.17	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			279	133	966	4040	691	253	131	48%	3.5	17.1%	6.3%	10.8%	3.2%	3.89	4.22	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	663	98	24	19	100%	5.9	14.8%	3.6%	11.2%	2.9%	2.92	3.93	+1.9
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	663	98	24	19	100%	5.9	14.8%	3.6%	11.2%	2.9%	2.92	3.93	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	MLB RAW	TB	28	28	166	663	98	24	19	100%	5.9	14.8%	3.6%	11.2%	2.9%	2.92	3.88	+2.0
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	TB	28	28	166	663	98	24	19	100%	5.9	14.8%	3.6%	11.2%	2.9%	2.92	3.88	+2.0
ROS	35	MLB MLE	TB	3	3	16	66	10	3	2	100%	5.2	15.5%	4.2%	11.3%	2.8%	3.66	3.87	+0.2
ROS	35	MLB CTX	TB	3	3	16	68	10	3	2	100%	5.3	15.5%	4.2%	11.3%	2.8%	3.66	3.87	+0.2
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	182	729	108	27	21	—	—	14.8%	3.7%	11.2%	2.9%	2.99	3.92	+2.1
FULL	35	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	182	768	108	27	21	—	—	14.1%	3.5%	10.6%	2.7%	2.99	3.84	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	112	471	70	23	15	100%	7.0	14.8%	4.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.37	4.60	+0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	97	411	56	23	15	100%	7.0	13.7%	5.5%	8.2%	3.6%	4.75	5.00	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	112	473	70	23	15	100%	6.6	14.8%	4.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.37	4.60	+0.4
2028	37	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	97	410	56	23	15	100%	6.9	13.7%	5.5%	8.2%	3.6%	4.75	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		312	166	1190	4987	827	301	163	53%	3.8	16.6%	6.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.00	4.26	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	28	200	838	139	51	27	53%	3.8	16.6%	6.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.00	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		311	162	1140	4752	789	287	140	52%	3.7	16.6%	6.0%	10.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.08	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	28	200	834	138	50	25	52%	3.7	16.6%	6.0%	10.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.08	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	18.1%	5.5%	2.8%	—	4.79	14.3%	9.1%	209	+0.62	—	—	—
Jason Hammel R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	35	SW	4.36	15.8%	6.0%	3.3%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	645	67
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	63
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	57
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	55
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	51
Aníbal Sánchez R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	51
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	50
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	48
Marco Estrada R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	35	SP	5.26	16.4%	8.0%	4.6%	.283	7.16	10.4%	2.9%	24	+1.90	4.04	710	47
James Shields R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	35	SP	5.12	20.1%	9.3%	4.6%	.271	4.85	17.7%	8.7%	205	-0.27	4.15	720	45
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	45
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	43
Adam Wainwright R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	17.6%	7.5%	2.8%	.319	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	278	+0.00	2.03	1,127	43
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	43
Josh Lindblom R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	35	SP	5.07	20.8%	8.8%	4.8%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	348	42
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	42
Ross Wolf R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP-	3.43	8.1%	5.5%	0.6%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	106	41
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	41
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	413	39
Jesse Chavez R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	35	SW	4.00	21.4%	6.5%	3.4%	.303	3.25	25.5%	17.9%	140	-0.75	2.03	804	39

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	112	15.7%	5.3%	1.22	4.33
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13