Nick Martinez — OGILVIE

Nick Martinez P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 36 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.7 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 137 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.03

FIP4.35

K%15.8%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP137

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p1015.1%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

CH+3.0 (26%)

CT+1.9 (22%)

FB+1.8 (44%)

SI (32%)

CU (4%)

SL-3.2 (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 7.012 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.8	$3M	-$8M
Totals		$11M		$3M	-$8M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$11.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$20.0M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$6.5M / $1.5M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$6.5M / $1.5M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	PLAYER OPT	$6.5M / $1.5M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	24	140	610	77	54	18	83%	4.8	12.6%	8.9%	3.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.71	+0.3
2014	23	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	24	140	610	77	54	18	83%	4.8	12.6%	8.9%	3.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.82	+0.1
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	156	683	95	51	17	90%	5.2	13.6%	7.5%	6.1%	2.4%	3.75	4.22	+1.3
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	156	683	95	51	17	90%	5.2	13.9%	7.5%	6.4%	2.5%	3.75	4.28	+1.1
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	144	617	90	36	16	71%	4.6	12.6%	6.0%	6.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	22	144	617	90	36	16	71%	4.6	14.6%	5.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.32	4.05	+1.5
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	149	627	90	35	29	80%	5.0	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	4.5%	4.77	5.09	-0.3
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	149	627	90	35	29	80%	5.0	14.4%	5.6%	8.8%	4.6%	4.77	5.13	-0.4
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	47	10	106	448	95	41	15	21%	2.3	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	3.47	4.26	+0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	47	10	106	448	95	41	15	21%	2.3	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	3.47	4.30	+0.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	63	9	110	461	106	39	12	14%	1.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.5%	3.43	3.62	+1.2
2023	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	63	9	110	461	106	39	12	14%	1.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.6%	3.43	3.65	+1.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.1%	3.10	2.94	+2.8
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.1%	3.10	2.94	+2.8
2024	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	42	16	142	570	116	18	13	38%	3.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.10	3.04	+2.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.06	+1.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.06	+1.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	40	26	166	683	116	41	22	65%	4.1	17.0%	6.0%	11.0%	3.2%	4.45	4.17	+1.4
2026	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	180	722	109	26	22	100%	5.8	15.1%	3.6%	11.5%	3.1%	3.10	4.00	+1.9
2026	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	180	722	109	26	22	100%	5.8	15.1%	3.6%	11.5%	3.1%	3.10	4.00	+1.9
2026	35	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	180	722	109	26	22	100%	5.8	15.1%	3.6%	11.5%	3.0%	3.10	3.91	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			311	160	1120	4709	779	309	152	51%	3.6	16.5%	6.6%	10.0%	3.2%	3.99	4.30	+7.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	TB	20	20	137	578	91	25	17	100%	6.8	15.8%	4.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.03	4.35	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	119	504	74	25	17	100%	6.6	14.7%	5.0%	9.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.75	+0.2
2029	38	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	103	433	59	25	17	100%	6.8	13.6%	5.7%	7.8%	3.9%	4.89	5.18	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	119	502	74	25	17	100%	6.6	14.7%	5.0%	9.7%	3.3%	4.41	4.70	+0.2
2029	38	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	103	435	59	25	16	100%	6.9	13.6%	5.7%	7.8%	3.8%	4.83	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		344	193	1342	5646	912	359	185	56%	3.9	16.1%	6.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.09	4.34	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	29	200	841	136	54	28	56%	3.9	16.1%	6.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.09	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		343	189	1294	5421	877	343	160	55%	3.8	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	3.0%	3.90	4.16	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	29	200	838	136	53	25	55%	3.8	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	3.0%	3.90	4.16	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	15.8%	4.4%	3.0%	—	4.95	14.2%	8.8%	222	+0.60	—	—	—
Masato Yoshii R 2001 · 4.64 FIP	36	SW	4.64	12.8%	4.9%	3.6%	.281	4.15	13.4%	8.0%	131	-0.49	4.15	757	55
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	49
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	40
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	40
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	40
Steve Sparks R 2001 · 4.14 FIP	36	SP	4.14	11.8%	6.4%	2.2%	.284	4.69	11.2%	3.7%	417	+0.55	3.78	1,320	37
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	36
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	34
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	32
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	31
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	30
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	30
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	30
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	26
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	25
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	25
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	24
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	23
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	21
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	20

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,251 pitcher careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	123	16.1%	6.3%	1.26	4.09
Joe Blanton ('17)	8.8	147	17.0%	6.2%	1.14	4.38
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Scott Feldman ('17)	6.9	116	14.9%	7.4%	1.05	4.43
Denny Neagle ('03)	9.5	145	17.6%	7.4%	1.19	4.24
Brett Tomko ('11)	9.1	140	15.5%	7.4%	1.26	4.65
Brett Myers ('13)	8.6	142	18.9%	7.6%	1.30	4.25