Nick Martinez
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+1.4
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA3.97
FIP4.13
xFIP4.40
SIERA4.54
K%18.8%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%13.0%
IP133
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p1017.5%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CH+3.0 (28%)
CT+1.9 (18%)
FB+1.8 (41%)
SI (31%)
CU (7%)
SL-3.2 (5%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 27 | 156 | 683 | 95 | 51 | 17 | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 4.23 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 22 | 144 | 617 | 90 | 36 | 16 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 24 | 149 | 627 | 90 | 35 | 29 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.77 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 47 | 10 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 41 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 3.47 | 4.06 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 9 | 110 | 461 | 106 | 39 | 12 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.43 | 3.73 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 42 | 16 | 142 | 570 | 116 | 18 | 13 | 20.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.10 | 2.87 | +3.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 26 | 166 | 683 | 116 | 41 | 22 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 3 | 17 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.16 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 73 | 24 | 12 | 17.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.68 | 3.97 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | TB | — | — | 115 | 479 | 84 | 28 | 15 | 17.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.46 | 4.12 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 66 | 24 | 12 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.51 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 56 | 17 | 10 | 18.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 286 | 137 | 990 | 4155 | 702 | 267 | 123 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 4.11 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 28 | 200 | 839 | 142 | 54 | 25 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.50 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 224 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 50 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 50 |
| Leo Medrano R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 50 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2029 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 50 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 49 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 645 | 48 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 257 | 47 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.90 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.22 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 67 | +0.32 | 3.41 | 394 | 46 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.66 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 214 | 46 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 46 |
| Chris Young R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 46 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 264 | 46 |
| Michael Nix R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 45 |
| Ross Wolf R 2023 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.45 | 8.1% | 5.5% | 0.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 106 | 45 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 283 | 45 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 45 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.03 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 123 | 44 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .337 | 5.75 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.40 | 4.25 | 443 | 43 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.87 | 9.4% | 6.1% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.30 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 38 | +0.43 | 3.61 | 326 | 43 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.42 | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.18 | 10.7% | 1.4% | 83 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 273 | 43 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +1.4 | $11M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +0.8 | $3M | -$17M |
| Totals | $29M | $14M | -$15M | ||