Caleb Smith
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
LHP
6'0" / 207 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP5.15
SIERA4.62
K%22.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.9%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
CH+4.0
SL-3.8
FB-5.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 25 | 135 | 576 | 96 | 56 | 8 | 13.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.47 | 3.99 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 27 | 7 | 64 | 279 | 70 | 20 | 4 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 3.96 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 19 | 119 | 491 | 120 | 39 | 12 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 3.24 | 3.46 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 16 | 16 | 77 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 10 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 3.90 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 30 | 30 | 163 | 684 | 187 | 60 | 37 | 26.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.59 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 2.57 | 6.27 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45 | 13 | 114 | 500 | 124 | 60 | 20 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49 | 2 | 83 | 349 | 76 | 40 | 15 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 3.70 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 10 | 9 | 45 | 199 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 6.40 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 125 | 813 | 3464 | 753 | 352 | 115 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.37 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 31 | 200 | 852 | 185 | 87 | 28 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.76 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 31 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.23 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 81 | +0.02 | 2.38 | 306 | 83 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 79 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 78 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.98 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 166 | 77 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 73 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.28 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .418 | 4.63 | 15.7% | 5.5% | 55 | +0.35 | 4.28 | 159 | 73 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 650 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 69 |
| Brandon Mann L 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 67 |
| Adam Loewen L 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 67 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.65 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | +0.02 | 2.58 | 922 | 66 |
| Dana Eveland L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 66 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 15.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | .312 | 4.42 | 11.7% | 3.3% | 58 | +0.91 | 3.51 | 138 | 65 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.00 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 299 | 61 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.67 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 574 | 60 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | .192 | 3.44 | 19.6% | 12.0% | 57 | -0.42 | 2.22 | 405 | 59 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.79 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.94 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.15 | 4.49 | 408 | 59 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.52 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.3% | .322 | 6.33 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +0.81 | 4.17 | 327 | 58 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.50 | 16.1% | 19.2% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 294 | 52 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 225 | 48 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.