Caleb Smith — OGILVIE

Caleb Smith P Indianapolis Indians

Age 35 LHP 6'0" / 207 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.40

FIP4.51

K%21.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

CH+4.0

SL-3.8

FB-5.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	135	576	96	56	8	96%	5.2	13.5%	10.1%	3.3%	1.3%	3.47	3.97	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	135	576	96	56	8	96%	5.2	16.7%	9.7%	6.9%	1.4%	3.47	3.69	—
2016	25	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	27	7	64	279	70	20	4	26%	2.4	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	1.7%	3.96	3.31	—
2016	25	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	27	7	64	279	70	20	4	26%	2.4	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	1.4%	3.96	2.66	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	19	119	491	120	39	12	68%	4.3	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	2.1%	3.24	3.43	+2.1
2017	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	19	119	491	120	39	12	68%	4.3	24.4%	7.9%	16.5%	2.4%	3.24	3.38	+2.2
2018	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	16	16	77	326	88	31	10	100%	4.8	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.2%	4.19	3.80	+1.0
2018	27	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	16	16	77	326	88	31	10	100%	4.8	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.1%	4.19	3.71	+1.1
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	163	684	187	60	37	100%	5.4	26.0%	9.0%	17.0%	5.4%	4.59	4.99	-0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	163	684	187	60	37	100%	5.4	27.3%	8.8%	18.6%	5.4%	4.59	4.86	+0.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	4	14	60	15	12	3	80%	2.8	25.0%	20.0%	5.0%	5.3%	2.57	6.43	-0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	4	14	60	15	12	3	80%	2.8	25.0%	20.0%	5.0%	5.0%	2.57	6.31	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	45	13	114	500	124	60	20	29%	2.5	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	4.2%	4.83	4.85	-0.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	45	13	114	500	124	60	20	29%	2.5	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	4.0%	4.83	4.79	-0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	2	83	349	76	40	15	4%	1.7	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	4.9%	3.70	5.57	-1.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	2	83	349	76	40	15	4%	1.7	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	4.3%	3.70	5.07	-0.5
2023	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	10	9	45	199	38	23	7	90%	4.5	15.8%	10.4%	5.4%	3.5%	6.40	5.02	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	10	9	45	199	38	23	7	90%	4.5	15.8%	10.4%	5.4%	3.5%	6.40	5.02	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	10	9	45	199	38	23	7	90%	4.5	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	3.5%	6.40	4.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			147	64	447	1920	478	208	84	44%	3.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	4.4%	4.55	4.80	-1.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	PIT	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	PIT	3	3	21	87	18	9	3	100%	6.9	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.69	4.88	+0.0
2027	36	MLB CTX	PIT	3	3	21	89	18	9	3	100%	7.0	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	67	468	2007	496	217	87	45%	3.1	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	4.3%	4.55	4.75	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		64	29	200	858	212	93	37	45%	3.1	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	4.3%	4.55	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		236	125	813	3464	752	349	118	53%	3.4	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.13	4.42	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	31	200	852	185	86	29	53%	3.4	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.13	4.42	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.7%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.88	20.7%	10.8%	21	+0.37	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	69
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	62
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	60
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	59
Jorge De La Rosa L 2016 · 4.56 FIP	35	SP	4.56	17.3%	10.1%	3.0%	.315	4.08	19.9%	11.2%	107	-0.48	3.86	405	57
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	55
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	54
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	52
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	52
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	50
Randy Wolf L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	38	SP	3.40	16.6%	7.7%	1.3%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	174	48
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	46
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	46
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	44
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	43
Andrew Albers L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	35	SP	4.60	16.9%	3.7%	4.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	508	43
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	41
David Price L 2021 · 3.82 FIP	35	SW	3.82	17.8%	7.4%	2.4%	.301	3.65	22.2%	18.0%	40	-0.17	2.65	922	40
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	40
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	39