Caleb Smith
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 35
LHP
6'0" / 207 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 115
ERA4.41
FIP4.52
K%21.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
CH+4.0
SL-3.8
FB-5.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 135 | 576 | 96 | 56 | 8 | 96% | 5.2 | 13.5% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.47 | 3.89 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 135 | 576 | 96 | 56 | 8 | 96% | 5.2 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 3.47 | 3.69 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 27 | 7 | 64 | 279 | 70 | 20 | 4 | 26% | 2.4 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 3.96 | 3.30 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 27 | 7 | 64 | 279 | 70 | 20 | 4 | 26% | 2.4 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 1.4% | 3.96 | 2.66 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 19 | 119 | 491 | 120 | 39 | 12 | 68% | 4.3 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 3.31 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 19 | 119 | 491 | 120 | 39 | 12 | 68% | 4.3 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.38 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 16 | 16 | 77 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 16 | 16 | 77 | 326 | 88 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 3.71 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 163 | 684 | 187 | 60 | 37 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.0% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 5.4% | 4.59 | 5.01 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 163 | 684 | 187 | 60 | 37 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 5.4% | 4.59 | 4.86 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 80% | 2.8 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.57 | 6.15 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 80% | 2.8 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.57 | 6.31 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45 | 13 | 114 | 500 | 124 | 60 | 20 | 29% | 2.5 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45 | 13 | 114 | 500 | 124 | 60 | 20 | 29% | 2.5 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 4.83 | 4.79 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 2 | 83 | 349 | 76 | 40 | 15 | 4% | 1.7 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 3.70 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 2 | 83 | 349 | 76 | 40 | 15 | 4% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 3.70 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 10 | 9 | 45 | 199 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 90% | 4.5 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 6.40 | 5.00 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 10 | 9 | 45 | 199 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 90% | 4.5 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 6.40 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 4 | 4 | 23 | 98 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 3 | 3 | 21 | 87 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.9 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 3 | 3 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 7.0 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 67 | 468 | 2007 | 496 | 217 | 87 | 45% | 3.1 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 4.56 | 4.76 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 29 | 200 | 858 | 212 | 93 | 37 | 45% | 3.1 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 4.56 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 236 | 125 | 813 | 3464 | 753 | 352 | 112 | 53% | 3.4 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.33 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 31 | 200 | 852 | 185 | 87 | 28 | 53% | 3.4 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.89 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 21 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 69 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 62 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 61 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 60 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 60 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 55 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 53 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 52 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 51 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 50 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.75 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 893 | 49 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.96 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.85 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | -0.11 | 2.65 | 922 | 48 |
| Randy Wolf L 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 48 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.96 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .344 | 5.00 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 202 | +1.04 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 47 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 46 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 46 |
| Barry Zito L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 44 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 43 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 43 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 41 |