Luke Farrell
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.70
K%20.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p1017.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
FB-1.2
SL-1.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 123 | 514 | 106 | 35 | 7 | 73% | 4.7 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.07 | 3.84 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 123 | 514 | 106 | 35 | 7 | 73% | 4.7 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 3.07 | 2.97 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 98 | 418 | 90 | 43 | 12 | 67% | 4.7 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 3.59 | 4.65 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 98 | 418 | 90 | 43 | 12 | 67% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 3.59 | 4.18 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 130 | 559 | 126 | 56 | 17 | 66% | 4.1 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 130 | 559 | 126 | 56 | 17 | 66% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 14 | 86 | 372 | 100 | 42 | 11 | 44% | 2.7 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 14 | 86 | 372 | 100 | 42 | 11 | 44% | 2.7 | 26.9% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 3.91 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 5 | 27 | 107 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 28% | 1.5 | 31.8% | 7.5% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 3.29 | 2.90 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 5 | 27 | 107 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 28% | 1.5 | 31.8% | 7.5% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 3.29 | 2.92 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 4 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 18.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 8.44 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 4 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 18.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 8.44 | 5.35 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 34 | 153 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 34 | 153 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 4% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 75 | 331 | 65 | 35 | 13 | 54% | 3.1 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 75 | 331 | 65 | 35 | 13 | 54% | 3.1 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 37 | 7 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 19% | 1.5 | 17.7% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 37 | 7 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 19% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.56 | 5.05 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.46 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | WSH | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.64 | 5.90 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.07 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.47 | — |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.64 | 5.90 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 7 | 103 | 460 | 107 | 52 | 20 | 10% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 5.00 | 4.95 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 14 | 200 | 896 | 208 | 101 | 39 | 10% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 5.00 | 4.95 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 230 | 97 | 648 | 2806 | 554 | 285 | 81 | 42% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.30 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 30 | 200 | 866 | 171 | 88 | 25 | 42% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Farrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 5.44 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 141 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 65 |
| Chris Young R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 65 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 64 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 64 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.11 | 287 | 62 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 62 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 62 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 61 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 61 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 61 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 60 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 60 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 59 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 56 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 56 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 56 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 56 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 1.41 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |