Luke Farrell
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP4.62
SIERA4.45
K%22.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.9%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p1017.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
FB-1.2
SL-1.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 26 | 19 | 123 | 514 | 106 | 35 | 7 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 3.65 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 21 | 14 | 98 | 418 | 90 | 43 | 12 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 4.76 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 21 | 130 | 559 | 126 | 56 | 17 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 14 | 86 | 372 | 100 | 42 | 11 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 18 | 5 | 27 | 107 | 34 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.29 | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 4 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.44 | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 27 | 1 | 34 | 153 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.54 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 24 | 13 | 75 | 331 | 65 | 35 | 13 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 37 | 7 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 17.7% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 9 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.93 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 97 | 648 | 2806 | 554 | 285 | 84 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.37 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 30 | 200 | 866 | 171 | 88 | 26 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Farrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.97 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 45 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 87 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 80 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 80 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 76 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 358 | 74 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.61 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 268 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 73 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 73 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.