Luke Farrell — OGILVIE

Luke Farrell P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.70

K%20.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1017.3%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

FB-1.2

SL-1.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	123	514	106	35	7	73%	4.7	16.4%	7.5%	8.8%	1.8%	3.07	3.69	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	123	514	106	35	7	73%	4.7	20.6%	6.8%	13.8%	1.4%	3.07	2.97	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	98	418	90	43	12	67%	4.7	17.6%	10.8%	6.8%	3.2%	3.59	4.74	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	98	418	90	43	12	67%	4.7	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.9%	3.59	4.18	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	21	130	559	126	56	17	66%	4.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.47	+0.7
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	21	130	559	126	56	17	66%	4.1	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.16	+1.1
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	86	372	100	42	11	44%	2.7	24.9%	11.7%	13.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.25	+0.3
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	14	86	372	100	42	11	44%	2.7	26.9%	11.3%	15.6%	3.0%	4.20	3.91	+0.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	5	27	107	34	8	3	28%	1.5	31.8%	7.5%	24.3%	2.8%	3.29	2.90	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	5	27	107	34	8	3	28%	1.5	31.8%	7.5%	24.3%	2.8%	3.29	2.92	+0.5
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	4	0	5	27	8	5	1	0%	1.3	29.6%	18.5%	11.1%	3.7%	8.44	4.98	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	4	0	5	27	8	5	1	0%	1.3	29.6%	18.5%	11.1%	3.7%	8.44	5.35	-0.0
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	153	41	19	4	4%	1.2	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	3.5%	4.54	4.62	-0.0
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	34	153	41	19	4	4%	1.2	26.8%	12.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.54	3.90	+0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	75	331	65	35	13	54%	3.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.87	+0.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	75	331	65	35	13	54%	3.1	19.6%	10.6%	9.1%	3.9%	5.04	5.02	-0.1
2023	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	3.7%	5.56	4.90	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	3.7%	5.56	4.90	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	37	7	55	259	52	27	10	19%	1.5	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	3.9%	5.56	5.05	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.46	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.46	—
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	3	15	66	11	4	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	6.1%	10.6%	0.0%	2.93	2.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	7	103	460	107	52	20	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	5.07	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.69	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	WSH	51	0	54	228	45	24	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	5.06	-0.3
2028	37	MLB MLE	WSH	45	0	47	198	37	22	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.9%	5.24	5.47	-0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	171	30	20	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	4.4%	5.64	5.90	-0.6
2027	36	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	5.06	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.9%	5.24	5.47	—
2029	38	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	4.4%	5.64	5.90	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	7	103	460	107	52	20	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	4.95	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		134	14	200	896	208	101	39	10%	1.5	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.3%	5.00	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		230	97	648	2806	551	281	83	42%	2.8	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.33	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	30	200	866	170	87	26	42%	2.8	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.33	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Farrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.6%	9.7%	3.1%	—	5.44	18.6%	7.7%	141	+0.74	—	—	—
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	66
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	65
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	63
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	62
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	61
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	60
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	60
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	212	59
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	59
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	57
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	56
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	56
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	56
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	55
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	54
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	19.2%	10.6%	1.42	5.07
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63