Drew McDaniel — OGILVIE

Drew McDaniel P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%19.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	30	7	4	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	8.44	2.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	30	7	4	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	8.44	2.73	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	20	17	78	352	67	27	7	85%	3.9	14.1%	9.1%	5.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.71	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	20	17	78	352	67	27	7	85%	3.9	14.1%	9.1%	5.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.71	—
2023	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	20	17	78	352	67	27	7	85%	3.9	19.0%	7.7%	11.4%	2.0%	4.60	3.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	2.0%	4.13	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	4.9%	4.57	5.65	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	4.9%	4.57	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CWS	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.9%	4.57	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	375	75	32	11	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.52	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	88	369	75	32	11	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.6%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	85	358	72	31	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.61	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	81	342	69	30	11	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	76	322	70	27	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.64	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	71	300	64	26	11	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.84	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	38	160	32	14	5	100%	6.3	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.56	4.55	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	55	232	47	20	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.6%	11.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.57	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	55	24	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.64	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	66	279	56	25	9	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	3.4%	4.69	4.76	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	65	274	59	23	10	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.67	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	63	266	57	23	10	100%	6.3	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.8%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	351	1484	306	129	50	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.31	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	73	28	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		62	52	235	1016	175	99	37	84%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.5%	3.7%	4.55	4.89	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	863	149	85	32	84%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.5%	3.7%	4.55	4.89	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew McDaniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	19.4%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.56	20.2%	11.6%	261	-0.04	—	—	—
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	77
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	76
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	76	20.5%	8.7%	1.26	4.61
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94