Drew McDaniel

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ACWS	20	17	78	4.60	3.59	19.0%	7.7%	—	K 14.1% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.71
2024	23	MIX2 levels	12	12	61	4.13	2.92	25.9%	7.2%	—	K 19.4% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.24
2026	25	A+CWS	25	23	91	4.57	4.47	23.8%	9.7%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.65
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	—	—	0	5.12	5.12	19.1%	10.7%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCWS	4	4	25	5.05	5.07	19.4%	10.5%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCWS	6	6	39	4.89	4.82	21.5%	9.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAlejandro Martinez (age 26) · Jake Walters (age 26) · Ricky Castro (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%19.1%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	30	7	4	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	8.44	2.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	30	7	4	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	8.44	2.73	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	20	17	78	352	67	27	7	85%	3.9	14.1%	9.1%	5.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.71	—
2023	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	20	17	78	352	67	27	7	85%	3.9	19.0%	7.7%	11.4%	2.0%	4.60	3.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	61	251	65	18	5	100%	5.1	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	2.0%	4.13	2.92	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	4.9%	4.57	5.65	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	4.9%	4.57	5.65	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	91	383	91	37	15	92%	3.6	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.9%	4.57	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	10.7%	8.5%	3.5%	5.12	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	67	283	55	30	10	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.5%	5.05	5.07	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	66	280	60	27	10	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.82	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	60	255	55	25	9	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.90	4.93	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	54	230	48	23	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	11.0%	3.8%	5.00	5.09	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	25	106	20	11	4	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.5%	5.05	5.07	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	39	165	35	16	6	100%	6.5	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.82	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	43	182	39	18	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.90	4.93	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	42	177	37	18	7	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	11.0%	3.8%	5.00	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	149	628	132	62	23	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.95	4.59	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	83	31	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.95	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		62	52	235	1016	175	99	37	84%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.5%	3.7%	4.55	4.89	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	863	149	85	32	84%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.5%	3.7%	4.55	4.89	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 91 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.65 (+1.18)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.76%	—	×0.770	18.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.150	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 40 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.98 (+1.52)K% 32.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.24%	—	×0.740	23.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.180	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.820	×1.300	3.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 21 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.63 (+1.02)K% 16.2% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.16%	—	×0.770	12.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.150	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷0.817	×1.250	3.09%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 78 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.71 (+1.15)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.03%	—	×0.740	14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.67%	—	×1.180	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.861	×1.300	3.00%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 3 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.61 (+0.78)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.740	12.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.180	20.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.172	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew McDaniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	19.1%	10.7%	3.5%	—	4.94	20.7%	10.8%	194	-0.18	—	—	—
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	76
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	76
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	75
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	75
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	75
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	75
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	62	20.5%	10.1%	1.39	4.99
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*