Cole Percival
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.0%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 26 | 2 | 73 | 317 | 68 | 41 | 6 | 16.5% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 3.34 | 4.99 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 38 | 6 | 72 | 342 | 68 | 44 | 8 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 24 | 15 | 83 | 399 | 86 | 51 | 5 | 17.0% | 14.3% | 1.6% | 5.62 | 4.33 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 17 | 12 | 63 | 270 | 59 | 23 | 9 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 31 | 0 | 39 | 185 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 5.72 | 3.58 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 35 | 330 | 1513 | 258 | 200 | 35 | 17.1% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 4.93 | 4.62 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 21 | 200 | 916 | 156 | 121 | 21 | 17.1% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 4.93 | 4.62 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Percival (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.57 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 120 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 86 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 84 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 82 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 82 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 1.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 114 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .340 | 3.98 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.38 | 2.68 | 177 | 81 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.41 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 224 | 81 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.