Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 37.5% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.74 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 37.5% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 51 | 228 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.86 | 5.97 | -0.8 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 51 | 228 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 5.86 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 83 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 3.14 | 3.46 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 83 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.2% | 10.1% | 22.1% | 1.9% | 3.14 | 2.73 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 54 | 256 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 54 | 256 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 4.00 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 3.85 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 59 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 3.05 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 59 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 3.05 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 68 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 68 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 5 | 71 | 322 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 9% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 5.22 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 5 | 71 | 322 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 9% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 5.22 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 259 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 3.34 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 259 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 7.3% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 3.34 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 4.74 | 3.26 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 143 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 293 | 2 | 298 | 1325 | 295 | 132 | 48 | 1% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.46 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 1 | 200 | 888 | 198 | 89 | 32 | 1% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 438 | 6 | 481 | 2090 | 461 | 214 | 66 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 2 | 200 | 868 | 191 | 89 | 27 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Ruiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.58 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 31 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 77 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 72 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .257 | 5.52 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | +1.00 | 2.37 | 318 | 72 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 72 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 70 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 70 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 113 | +1.12 | 2.40 | 617 | 70 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 70 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 70 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 1.22 | 4.54 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |