Buck Farmer — OGILVIE

Buck Farmer P Louisville Bats

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 243 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.13

FIP4.32

K%21.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

FB+1.9 (44%)

SI (24%)

CU (35%)

CH-1.6 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	127	554	100	40	16	70%	4.2	16.4%	7.4%	9.0%	3.2%	5.17	4.41	+0.7
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	127	554	100	40	16	70%	4.2	18.1%	7.2%	10.8%	2.9%	5.17	4.11	+1.2
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	21	129	557	120	47	15	62%	3.8	19.5%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.29	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	21	129	557	120	47	15	62%	3.8	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.11	3.84	+1.6
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	172	738	163	50	18	100%	5.4	20.2%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	4.72	3.68	+2.5
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	172	738	163	50	18	100%	5.4	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.4%	4.72	3.44	+3.1
2018	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	1	69	308	57	40	6	2%	1.1	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	2.0%	4.15	4.30	+0.2
2018	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	1	69	308	57	40	6	2%	1.1	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	1.9%	4.15	4.31	+0.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	73	1	68	288	73	22	8	1%	0.9	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	2.9%	3.72	3.52	+0.8
2019	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	73	1	68	288	73	22	8	1%	0.9	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	2.8%	3.72	3.45	+0.9
2020	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	23	0	21	89	14	5	3	0%	0.9	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	3.5%	3.80	4.42	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	23	0	21	89	14	5	3	0%	0.9	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	3.4%	3.80	4.32	+0.1
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	62	280	59	30	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.8%	5.25	4.85	-0.2
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	62	280	59	30	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	3.6%	5.25	4.75	-0.1
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	69	291	88	34	6	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.8%	17.0%	1.8%	3.76	3.16	+1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	69	291	88	34	6	0%	1.1	30.2%	11.7%	18.6%	2.1%	3.76	3.16	+1.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	75	309	70	29	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.19	+0.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	75	309	70	29	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.19	+0.3
2023	32	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	75	309	70	29	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.6%	4.20	4.30	+0.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.2%	3.04	3.29	+1.1
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.2%	3.04	3.29	+1.1
2024	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	61	1	71	299	70	23	7	2%	1.2	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	2.3%	3.04	3.38	+1.0
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	1.8%	4.47	4.09	—
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	1.8%	4.47	4.09	—
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	52	232	50	26	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.3%	4.47	3.42	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			413	20	504	2199	475	218	69	5%	1.2	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.59	4.29	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	CIN	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.6%	4.13	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	55	234	48	24	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.69	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	CIN	46	0	48	204	39	22	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.4%	4.84	5.09	-0.3
2029	38	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	175	32	20	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.6%	6.5%	3.8%	5.25	5.52	-0.4
2027	36	MLB CTX	CIN	52	0	55	232	47	24	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.69	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	CIN	46	0	48	203	39	22	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.4%	4.84	5.09	-0.3
2029	38	MLB CTX	CIN	40	0	42	177	32	21	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.6%	6.5%	3.8%	5.25	5.52	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		551	20	650	2812	594	284	90	4%	1.2	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.35	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		170	6	200	866	183	87	28	4%	1.2	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		562	77	916	3945	815	353	109	14%	1.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.33	4.00	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	17	200	862	178	77	24	14%	1.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.33	4.00	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Buck Farmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	21.4%	9.6%	2.6%	—	5.06	19.3%	8.5%	145	+0.74	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	83
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	81
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	79
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	78
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	78
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	78
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	77
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	73
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	73
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	72
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	71
Adam Ottavino R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	35	SU	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.9%	.299	3.14	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.32	2.10	488	71
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	71
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	20.0%	10.5%	1.21	4.61
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86