Buck Farmer
P
Louisville Bats
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 243 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.19
FIP4.42
K%21.8%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+1.9 (44%)
SI (24%)
CU (35%)
CH-1.6 (21%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 127 | 554 | 100 | 40 | 16 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.17 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 127 | 554 | 100 | 40 | 16 | 70% | 4.2 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 21 | 129 | 557 | 120 | 47 | 15 | 62% | 3.8 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 21 | 129 | 557 | 120 | 47 | 15 | 62% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 3.84 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 172 | 738 | 163 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 3.68 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 172 | 738 | 163 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.44 | +3.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 57 | 40 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 57 | 40 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 4.15 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 73 | 1 | 68 | 288 | 73 | 22 | 8 | 1% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.59 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 73 | 1 | 68 | 288 | 73 | 22 | 8 | 1% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 3.45 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 3.80 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 3.80 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 62 | 280 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 62 | 280 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 88 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 1.6% | 3.76 | 3.05 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 88 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.2% | 11.7% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 71 | 0 | 75 | 309 | 70 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 71 | 0 | 75 | 309 | 70 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 61 | 1 | 71 | 299 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 3.04 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 61 | 1 | 71 | 299 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 2.3% | 3.04 | 3.38 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 50 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 4.47 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 50 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 4.47 | 3.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 49 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 40 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 32 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.35 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 40 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.35 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 551 | 20 | 650 | 2812 | 596 | 289 | 90 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.37 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 170 | 6 | 200 | 866 | 184 | 89 | 28 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 562 | 77 | 916 | 3945 | 818 | 357 | 114 | 14% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.08 | +14.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 17 | 200 | 862 | 179 | 78 | 25 | 14% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Buck Farmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% | — | 5.16 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 145 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 78 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 74 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 73 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 68 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 1.24 | 4.69 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |