Buck Farmer
P
Louisville Bats
+0.5
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 243 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.02
FIP4.28
xFIP4.44
SIERA3.94
K%22.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+1.9 (44%)
SI (24%)
CU (35%)
CH-1.6 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 21 | 127 | 554 | 100 | 40 | 16 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.17 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 21 | 129 | 557 | 120 | 47 | 15 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 32 | 172 | 738 | 163 | 50 | 18 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.62 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 57 | 40 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 73 | 1 | 68 | 288 | 73 | 22 | 8 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 3.72 | 3.55 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.80 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 60 | 0 | 62 | 280 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 64 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 88 | 34 | 6 | 28.8% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 3.76 | 3.22 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 71 | 0 | 75 | 309 | 70 | 29 | 11 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 61 | 1 | 71 | 299 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.04 | 3.22 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 48 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 50 | 26 | 3 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.31 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 562 | 77 | 916 | 3945 | 818 | 357 | 107 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.99 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 17 | 200 | 862 | 179 | 78 | 23 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Buck Farmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.64 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 163 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 81 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 77 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 76 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 71 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 70 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 70 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.