Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64 | 1 | 68 | 290 | 71 | 23 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.31 | +1.1 |
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64 | 1 | 68 | 290 | 71 | 23 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.37 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 70 | 0 | 60 | 268 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 5.22 | 3.35 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 70 | 0 | 60 | 268 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 2.2% | 5.22 | 3.41 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 71 | 0 | 62 | 271 | 66 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 71 | 0 | 62 | 271 | 66 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 3.73 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 69 | 1 | 73 | 304 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 2.47 | 3.61 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 69 | 1 | 73 | 304 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 2.47 | 3.61 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 21 | 0 | 21 | 92 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 6.5% | 6.10 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 21 | 0 | 21 | 92 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 6.5% | 6.10 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 54 | 0 | 52 | 210 | 75 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 4.1% | 3.31 | 3.24 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 54 | 0 | 52 | 210 | 75 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 3.8% | 3.31 | 3.08 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 0 | 24 | 97 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 5.2% | 25.8% | 1.1% | 2.22 | 1.74 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 0 | 24 | 97 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 5.2% | 25.8% | 1.0% | 2.22 | 1.78 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 55% | 1.0 | 43.9% | 9.8% | 34.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.63 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 55% | 1.0 | 43.9% | 9.8% | 34.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.98 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 4.2% | 3.00 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 4.0% | 3.00 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 63 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 3.4% | 3.99 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 52 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | LAD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 43 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 4.71 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | LAD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 5.13 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 52 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | LAD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 43 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 4.71 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | LAD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 5.13 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 606 | 3 | 601 | 2544 | 641 | 216 | 82 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 3.83 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 213 | 72 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 495 | 9 | 484 | 2041 | 528 | 171 | 61 | 2% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.5% | 3.0% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 4 | 200 | 843 | 218 | 70 | 25 | 2% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.5% | 3.0% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Hudson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.93 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 130 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.44 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.51 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.72 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.35 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.63 | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 59 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.59 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 215 | 54 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 53 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 53 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 53 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 50 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 47 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 47 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 46 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 45 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 39 |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 37 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 24 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 23 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 14 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 1.55 | 4.47 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |