Garrett Burhenn
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.9
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%11.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 22 | 20 | 92 | 395 | 112 | 26 | 14 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 4.01 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 18 | 94 | 398 | 70 | 29 | 7 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.42 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 26 | 122 | 518 | 123 | 42 | 13 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 24 | 125 | 523 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 98 | 41 | 16 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 102 | 42 | 16 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 103 | 42 | 16 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 100 | 42 | 16 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 96 | 41 | 16 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 87 | 39 | 15 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 82 | 38 | 15 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 76 | 37 | 15 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 70 | 36 | 14 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 64 | 34 | 14 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 88 | 433 | 1834 | 326 | 147 | 60 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 4.41 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 847 | 151 | 68 | 28 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 4.41 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Burhenn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 367 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 94 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 93 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 89 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 88 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 88 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 87 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 87 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 87 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 86 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 85 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 85 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 85 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $23M | +$17M | ||