Garrett Burhenn
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%16.5%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP85
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 92 | 395 | 112 | 26 | 14 | 91% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.01 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 92 | 395 | 112 | 26 | 14 | 91% | 4.2 | 28.4% | 6.6% | 21.8% | 3.5% | 4.01 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 18 | 94 | 398 | 70 | 29 | 7 | 75% | 3.9 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 24 | 18 | 94 | 398 | 70 | 29 | 7 | 75% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 4.04 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 122 | 518 | 123 | 42 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 3.68 | 4.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 122 | 518 | 123 | 42 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 24 | 125 | 523 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 92% | 4.8 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 24 | 125 | 523 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 92% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 6.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 85 | 358 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 83 | 352 | 60 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 81 | 342 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 63 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 58 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 68 | 286 | 53 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 63 | 265 | 48 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.07 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 45 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 46 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 45 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 42 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 50 | 302 | 1277 | 235 | 97 | 44 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.38 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 64 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 88 | 433 | 1834 | 326 | 147 | 59 | 89% | 4.4 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.39 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 847 | 151 | 68 | 27 | 89% | 4.4 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Burhenn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.69 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 242 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 85 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 84 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 84 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 84 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 83 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 82 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 82 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 81 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 81 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 81 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 80 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 80 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 79 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 79 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 79 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 79 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 76 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 1.33 | 4.77 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |