Garrett Burhenn

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1025ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+DET	24	18	94	4.04	3.51	17.6%	7.3%	—	K 13.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.39
2024	24	MIX2 levels	27	26	122	3.68	3.50	23.7%	8.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.42
2025	25	AADET	26	24	125	4.18	3.66	21.4%	6.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.30
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	1	1	2	4.66	4.66	16.8%	7.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	5	5	28	4.59	4.63	17.2%	7.3%	0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBDET	6	6	36	4.65	4.72	17.3%	7.6%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

CompsNestor Molina (age 27) · Shawn Haviland (age 29) · Jared Mortensen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%16.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	92	395	112	26	14	91%	4.2	21.1%	7.7%	13.3%	3.8%	4.01	4.40	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	92	395	112	26	14	91%	4.2	28.4%	6.6%	21.8%	3.5%	4.01	3.49	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	18	94	398	70	29	7	75%	3.9	13.5%	8.4%	5.2%	2.5%	4.04	4.39	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	18	94	398	70	29	7	75%	3.9	17.6%	7.3%	10.3%	1.8%	4.04	3.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.3%	3.68	4.42	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.3%	3.68	4.42	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	2.5%	3.68	3.50	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.18	4.30	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.18	4.30	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	21.4%	6.3%	15.1%	2.9%	4.18	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	309	53	23	10	100%	6.1	17.2%	7.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.70	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	273	47	21	9	100%	5.9	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	269	52	19	9	100%	5.8	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.68	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	56	237	45	18	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.5%	11.4%	3.7%	4.79	4.87	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	28	118	20	9	4	100%	5.6	17.2%	7.3%	9.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.63	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	26	12	5	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	43	182	35	13	6	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	43	182	34	14	6	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.5%	11.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.78	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	150	632	116	47	21	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.30	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	63	28	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		99	88	433	1834	326	147	59	89%	4.4	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.37	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	847	151	68	27	89%	4.4	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.37	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 125 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.30 (+0.64)K% 21.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.41%	—	×0.810	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.31%	—	×1.100	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.056	×1.200	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 94 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.77 (+0.89)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.810	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.100	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷0.941	×1.200	3.45%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 28 IPFIP 2.12 → 3.14 (+1.02)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.150	4.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.889	×1.250	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 94 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.39 (+0.88)K% 17.6% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.59%	—	×0.770	13.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.150	8.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.882	×1.250	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 79 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.04 (+0.85)K% 31.3% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.31%	—	×0.740	23.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.78%	—	×1.180	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.65%	÷1.279	×1.300	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 13 IPFIP 4.96 → 6.21 (+1.26)K% 13.6% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.770	10.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.150	12.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.847	×1.250	4.47%

Result: FIP 4.96 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Burhenn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	16.8%	7.1%	3.1%	—	4.73	17.9%	10.5%	201	+0.07	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	86
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	83
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	82
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	81
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	80
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	78
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	77
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	77
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	76
Dallas Beeler R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SP	3.47	15.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	7.35	10.0%	1.5%	11	+3.88	3.47	122	76
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	69	17.8%	7.3%	1.29	4.70
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*