Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 89 | 388 | 111 | 27 | 7 | 95% | 4.2 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.00 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 89 | 388 | 111 | 27 | 7 | 95% | 4.2 | 28.6% | 7.0% | 21.6% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 2.54 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 14 | 61 | 240 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 93% | 4.1 | 30.9% | 9.1% | 21.9% | 1.1% | 1.62 | 2.26 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 14 | 61 | 240 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 93% | 4.1 | 38.8% | 8.3% | 30.4% | 1.2% | 1.62 | 1.67 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 11 | 45 | 180 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 69% | 2.8 | 31.3% | 11.6% | 19.7% | 3.3% | 2.00 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 11 | 45 | 180 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 69% | 2.8 | 34.4% | 10.0% | 24.4% | 2.8% | 2.00 | 2.99 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 4 | 47 | 202 | 54 | 33 | 8 | 15% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 18.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.83 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 4 | 47 | 202 | 54 | 33 | 8 | 15% | 1.7 | 26.7% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 3.83 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 2 | 38 | 170 | 46 | 26 | 3 | 8% | 1.5 | 23.8% | 16.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 4.03 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 2 | 38 | 170 | 46 | 26 | 3 | 8% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 4.03 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 62 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 15.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 15.3% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 15.3% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 5 | 80 | 342 | 81 | 49 | 13 | 8% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 5.04 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 13 | 200 | 855 | 203 | 123 | 33 | 8% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 5.04 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 51 | 280 | 1180 | 304 | 138 | 31 | 49% | 2.7 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 3.25 | 3.84 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 36 | 200 | 843 | 217 | 99 | 22 | 49% | 2.7 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 3.25 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cody Morris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 25.3% | 15.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.30 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 106 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 66 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 65 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 64 |
| David Lebron R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 64 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.49 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 24.6% | 20.4% | 340 | -2.25 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 64 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 63 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 62 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 62 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 61 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 61 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 60 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 60 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 59 |
| Adam Quintana R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 59 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 29 | SW | 6.19 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 5.0% | .294 | 5.26 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 25 | -0.93 | 3.33 | 258 | 59 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 59 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.90 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 200 | 58 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 1.30 | 5.12 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |