Pierson Ohl
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 207 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.28
FIP4.35
K%17.9%
BB%4.1%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
SI (2%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.6 (12%)
FB-2.0 (44%)
CH-2.6 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 16.20 | 7.74 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 16.20 | 9.70 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 20 | 18 | 92 | 376 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 90% | 4.6 | 19.9% | 4.1% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 3.53 | 2.89 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 20 | 18 | 92 | 376 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 90% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 23.4% | 1.3% | 3.53 | 2.03 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 127 | 511 | 115 | 17 | 15 | 88% | 5.3 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 127 | 511 | 115 | 17 | 15 | 88% | 5.3 | 22.5% | 3.3% | 19.2% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.23 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 21 | 15 | 102 | 429 | 70 | 16 | 14 | 71% | 4.9 | 13.2% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.68 | 5.62 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 21 | 15 | 102 | 429 | 70 | 16 | 14 | 71% | 4.9 | 16.3% | 3.7% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 9 | 101 | 417 | 113 | 18 | 10 | 24% | 2.7 | 22.7% | 4.4% | 18.2% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 3.07 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 9 | 101 | 417 | 113 | 18 | 10 | 24% | 2.7 | 27.1% | 4.3% | 22.8% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 2.69 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 48 | 201 | 36 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.9% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 70 | 294 | 54 | 14 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 68 | 285 | 53 | 15 | 10 | 100% | 7.5 | 18.7% | 5.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 7.5 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.7% | 5.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 13 | 102 | 437 | 83 | 22 | 15 | 54% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 5.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.07 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 26 | 200 | 857 | 163 | 43 | 29 | 54% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 5.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 63 | 424 | 1743 | 318 | 70 | 55 | 61% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 4.0% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 3.71 | 3.81 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 30 | 200 | 822 | 150 | 33 | 26 | 61% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 4.0% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 3.71 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pierson Ohl (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 17.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | — | 4.43 | 18.6% | 13.6% | 137 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.51 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 140 | 75 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 74 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 71 |
| Vance Worley R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.01 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 4.76 | 13.4% | 4.9% | 220 | +0.75 | 4.01 | 411 | 68 |
| Justin Haley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | .266 | 3.57 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 136 | -0.82 | 3.11 | 486 | 68 |
| Jared Lyons R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.30 | 19.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 218 | 68 |
| Randy Wynne R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.52 | 20.7% | 0.0% | 5.8% | .353 | 4.70 | 13.3% | 8.4% | 222 | +0.18 | 4.52 | 461 | 68 |
| Mason Englert R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.76 | 20.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 461 | 68 |
| Parker Curry R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.07 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 256 | 68 |
| Kyle Smith R 2024 · 3.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.33 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 159 | 67 |
| Kris Medlen R 2029 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 66 |
| Wendolyn Bautista R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.3% | 5.5% | 3.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 468 | 66 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.87 | 21.0% | 13.1% | 167 | +0.72 | 3.15 | 891 | 66 |
| Jim McDade R 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.81 | 16.0% | 1.7% | 3.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 102 | 66 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .276 | 5.89 | 15.4% | 3.9% | 167 | +1.33 | 2.91 | 439 | 65 |
| Jackson Rose R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.55 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.88 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 26 | +1.33 | 3.55 | 147 | 65 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 65 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 65 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 1.33 | 4.36 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |