Pierson Ohl

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	21	127	3.32	3.23	22.5%	3.3%	—	K 17.9% · BB 3.7% · FIP 3.71
2024	24	AAMIN	21	15	102	4.68	3.98	16.3%	3.7%	—	K 13.2% · BB 4.1% · FIP 5.05
2025	25	MIX4 levels	38	9	101	3.20	2.69	27.1%	4.3%	2.3	K 22.5% · BB 4.2% · FIP 3.11
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	1	1	4	4.19	4.25	18.5%	4.2%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBMIN	3	3	20	4.28	4.34	18.8%	4.8%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBMIN	3	3	20	4.41	4.50	18.6%	5.4%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%37

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo14

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Chase Whitley (age 27) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.19

FIP4.25

K%18.5%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	10	1	0	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	16.20	7.74	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	10	1	0	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	16.20	9.70	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	18	92	376	101	13	5	90%	4.6	19.9%	4.1%	15.8%	1.7%	3.53	2.89	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	18	92	376	101	13	5	90%	4.6	26.9%	3.5%	23.4%	1.3%	3.53	2.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	127	511	115	17	15	88%	5.3	17.9%	3.7%	14.2%	3.0%	3.32	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	127	511	115	17	15	88%	5.3	22.5%	3.3%	19.2%	2.9%	3.32	3.23	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	13.2%	4.1%	9.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.05	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	13.2%	4.1%	9.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.05	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	16.3%	3.7%	12.6%	3.3%	4.68	3.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	22.5%	4.2%	18.3%	2.5%	3.20	3.11	+1.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	22.5%	4.2%	18.3%	2.5%	3.20	3.11	+1.8
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	27.1%	4.3%	22.8%	2.4%	3.20	2.69	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	3	30	133	27	7	5	21%	2.1	20.3%	5.3%	15.0%	3.8%	5.10	4.17	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	18.5%	4.2%	14.3%	3.3%	4.19	4.25	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	47	198	37	10	7	100%	6.7	18.8%	4.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.28	4.34	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	5	5	35	146	27	8	5	100%	6.9	18.6%	5.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.41	4.50	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	3	3	20	84	16	4	3	100%	6.7	18.8%	4.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.28	4.34	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	3	3	20	84	16	5	3	100%	6.7	18.6%	5.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.41	4.50	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	9	70	303	59	16	11	45%	3.5	19.4%	5.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.67	4.07	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	26	200	862	168	45	31	45%	3.5	19.4%	5.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.67	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		104	63	424	1743	318	69	53	61%	4.1	18.2%	4.0%	14.3%	3.1%	3.71	3.74	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	30	200	822	150	33	25	61%	4.1	18.2%	4.0%	14.3%	3.1%	3.71	3.74	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 39 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.28 (+0.68)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.26%	—	×0.810	24.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.100	2.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.986	×1.200	1.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 27 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.06 (+0.07)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.22%	—	×0.900	4.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.253	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 102 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.05 (+1.06)K% 16.3% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.32%	—	×0.810	13.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.73%	—	×1.100	4.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷0.845	×1.200	4.63%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 87 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.52 (+0.36)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.810	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.54%	—	×1.100	3.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.231	×1.200	2.59%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 40 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.08 (+0.71)K% 23.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.84%	—	×0.770	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.91%	—	×1.150	3.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.134	×1.250	3.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 92 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.89 (+0.89)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.86%	—	×0.740	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.46%	—	×1.180	4.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pierson Ohl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	18.5%	4.2%	3.3%	—	4.41	18.7%	13.7%	82	+0.16	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	77
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	75
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	74
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	74
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	72
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	71
Michael Brady R 2015 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	18.9%	2.5%	2.4%	.326	3.48	18.0%	14.6%	214	+0.33	3.02	333	70
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	70
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	70
Casey Sadler R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	27	SW	3.37	15.2%	3.4%	2.1%	.333	3.85	19.6%	12.5%	181	+0.48	2.21	385	69
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	68
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	66
Devin Burke R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	13.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	66
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	65
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	65
Joe Gunkel R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	27	SP-	4.06	14.7%	4.3%	3.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	601	65
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	65
Dave Borkowski R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	27	SW	3.61	18.2%	5.7%	2.4%	.324	3.79	18.4%	11.8%	143	+0.18	3.61	341	65
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	39	19.0%	4.8%	1.33	4.44
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Jamie Walker ('09)	2.2	55	16.7%	5.8%	1.49	4.13
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*