Pierson Ohl — OGILVIE

Pierson Ohl P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.24

FIP4.29

K%17.7%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

SI (2%)

CU (6%)

CT-0.6 (12%)

FB-2.0 (44%)

CH-2.6 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	10	1	0	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	16.20	7.74	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	10	1	0	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	16.20	9.70	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	18	92	376	101	13	5	90%	4.6	19.9%	4.1%	15.8%	1.7%	3.53	2.89	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	18	92	376	101	13	5	90%	4.6	26.9%	3.5%	23.4%	1.3%	3.53	2.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	127	511	115	17	15	88%	5.3	17.9%	3.7%	14.2%	3.0%	3.32	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	127	511	115	17	15	88%	5.3	17.9%	3.7%	14.2%	3.0%	3.32	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	127	511	115	17	15	88%	5.3	22.5%	3.3%	19.2%	2.9%	3.32	3.23	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	13.2%	4.1%	9.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.05	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	13.2%	4.1%	9.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.05	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	21	15	102	429	70	16	14	71%	4.9	16.3%	3.7%	12.6%	3.3%	4.68	3.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	22.3%	4.2%	18.1%	2.5%	3.20	3.13	+1.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	22.3%	4.2%	18.1%	2.5%	3.20	3.13	+1.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	9	101	417	113	18	10	24%	2.7	27.1%	4.3%	22.8%	2.4%	3.20	2.69	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	3	30	133	27	7	5	21%	2.1	20.3%	5.3%	15.0%	3.8%	5.10	4.17	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.7%	3.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.24	4.29	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	90	382	69	16	13	100%	7.0	18.1%	4.2%	13.9%	3.4%	4.29	4.33	+0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	88	370	68	17	13	100%	7.3	18.3%	4.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.36	4.40	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	84	354	63	18	13	100%	7.0	17.9%	5.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.56	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	79	333	64	15	12	100%	7.2	19.3%	4.6%	14.7%	3.7%	4.48	4.49	+0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	38	160	29	7	5	100%	7.6	18.1%	4.2%	13.9%	3.4%	4.29	4.33	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	55	232	42	11	8	100%	6.9	18.3%	4.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.36	4.40	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	61	258	46	13	9	100%	6.8	17.9%	5.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.56	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	63	266	51	12	10	100%	7.0	19.3%	4.6%	14.7%	3.7%	4.48	4.49	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	33	247	1050	196	50	38	75%	5.6	18.7%	4.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.50	4.08	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	27	200	850	159	40	31	75%	5.6	18.7%	4.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.50	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		104	63	424	1743	317	69	53	61%	4.1	18.2%	4.0%	14.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.75	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	30	200	822	149	33	25	61%	4.1	18.2%	4.0%	14.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.75	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pierson Ohl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	17.7%	3.8%	3.3%	—	4.43	18.1%	13.5%	262	+0.14	—	—	—
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	75
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	72
Randy Wynne R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	26	SW	4.35	20.7%	0.0%	5.5%	.353	4.90	13.3%	8.4%	222	+0.55	4.35	461	70
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	68
Vance Worley R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	15.2%	5.2%	2.6%	.296	4.72	13.4%	4.9%	220	+0.80	3.92	411	67
Justin Haley R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	17.1%	5.2%	4.1%	.266	3.73	19.1%	12.3%	136	-0.81	3.29	486	67
Jim McDade R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	24	SW	3.89	16.0%	1.7%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	102	67
Kyle Smith R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP-	3.31	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	66
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	65
Jordan Geber R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SW	4.26	17.2%	5.2%	3.6%	.270	4.80	14.6%	3.7%	163	+0.54	4.26	241	65
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	65
Wendolyn Bautista R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	26	SP-	4.20	18.3%	5.5%	3.5%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	468	65
Jackson Rose R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	21.0%	4.3%	2.6%	.245	4.79	23.3%	10.7%	26	+1.46	3.33	147	65
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	65
Michael Brady R 2015 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	18.9%	2.5%	2.4%	.326	3.48	18.0%	14.6%	214	+0.33	3.02	333	65
Luis Cessa R 2018 · 3.16 FIP	26	SW	3.16	20.5%	5.8%	1.9%	.305	3.86	21.0%	13.1%	167	+0.70	3.16	891	65
Devin Burke R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	13.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	64
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	64
Chad Donato R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	26	SP-	4.51	18.5%	6.7%	3.9%	.276	5.84	15.4%	3.9%	167	+1.33	2.89	439	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	81	18.3%	4.5%	1.35	4.37
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Adrian Sampson ('22)	1.4	72	17.6%	6.1%	1.66	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86