Pierson Ohl
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 207 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.54
FIP4.17
xFIP3.99
SIERA3.87
K%20.6%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%14.9%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†4545
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
SI (2%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.6 (12%)
FB-2.0 (44%)
CH-2.6 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 16.20 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 20 | 18 | 92 | 376 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 19.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.53 | 2.89 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 24 | 21 | 127 | 511 | 115 | 17 | 15 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.32 | 3.69 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 21 | 15 | 102 | 429 | 70 | 16 | 14 | 13.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.68 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 38 | 9 | 101 | 417 | 113 | 18 | 10 | 22.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 3.08 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 18.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 85 | 26 | 15 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 86 | 27 | 15 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.43 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 82 | 27 | 14 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 78 | 27 | 14 | 18.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 73 | 26 | 14 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 67 | 26 | 14 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 62 | 25 | 13 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 56 | 25 | 13 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 57 | 21 | 13 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 51 | 21 | 12 | 16.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 63 | 424 | 1743 | 318 | 70 | 53 | 18.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.75 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 30 | 200 | 822 | 150 | 33 | 25 | 18.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pierson Ohl (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 18.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.45 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 311 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.47 | 15.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.71 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 81 | -0.76 | 3.22 | 145 | 84 |
| Henderson Alvarez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 12.4% | 4.7% | 121 | +0.53 | 3.67 | 176 | 83 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 81 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 81 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 15.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | .294 | 3.48 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 116 | -0.83 | 3.03 | 302 | 80 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.44 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.51 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 123 | +0.07 | 3.09 | 159 | 80 |
| Tyson Perez R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.31 | 15.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | .224 | 4.75 | 12.2% | 6.3% | 44 | +1.44 | 3.31 | 121 | 79 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 79 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 79 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2029 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2029 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 78 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 78 |
| David Ellingson R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 18.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% | .362 | 5.65 | 15.4% | 1.8% | 28 | +1.99 | 3.43 | 150 | 78 |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.53 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.89 | 2.64 | 140 | 78 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .296 | 3.25 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 64 | -0.79 | 3.06 | 222 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 77 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 77 |
| Dakota Bacus R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 16.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.44 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 104 | +0.03 | 2.62 | 371 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.291 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $28M | +$17M | ||