Joe Gunkel
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 34
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION14 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%11.4%
IP14
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 29 | 22 | 145 | 575 | 113 | 26 | 10 | 15.8% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 2.68 | 3.41 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 28 | 28 | 161 | 675 | 109 | 21 | 16 | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.02 | 4.77 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 27 | 22 | 124 | 527 | 75 | 20 | 18 | 11.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 25 | 8 | 70 | 281 | 54 | 7 | 6 | 16.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.07 | 3.60 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 21 | 15 | 93 | 384 | 68 | 16 | 11 | 14.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.92 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 9 | 7 | 27 | 136 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 10.54 | 5.97 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 14 | — | 14 | 61 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 102 | 620 | 2578 | 359 | 105 | 82 | 13.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.19 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 33 | 200 | 831 | 116 | 34 | 26 | 13.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Gunkel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.92 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 20 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 83 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 83 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 83 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 82 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 82 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 79 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 78 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 77 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .306 | 5.16 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 113 | 77 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 48 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 244 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 75 |
| Casey Fien R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.