Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 23 | 22 | 124 | 550 | 98 | 38 | 26 | 96% | 5.4 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.50 | 6.38 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 23 | 22 | 124 | 550 | 98 | 38 | 26 | 96% | 5.4 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 5.50 | 5.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 23 | 21 | 104 | 478 | 73 | 35 | 8 | 91% | 4.5 | 11.8% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 5.35 | 3.98 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 23 | 21 | 104 | 478 | 73 | 35 | 8 | 91% | 4.5 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 5.35 | 3.70 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 18 | 114 | 493 | 101 | 26 | 12 | 64% | 4.1 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 4.57 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 18 | 114 | 493 | 101 | 26 | 12 | 64% | 4.1 | 20.5% | 5.3% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 17 | 2 | 23 | 83 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 12% | 1.3 | 18.5% | 4.0% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 1.99 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 17 | 2 | 23 | 83 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 12% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 3.6% | 19.3% | 2.4% | 1.99 | 2.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 12 | 11 | 49 | 239 | 54 | 20 | 15 | 92% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.57 | 6.96 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 83 | 383 | 83 | 31 | 19 | — | — | 21.6% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 5.1% | 6.88 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.04 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.11 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 61 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 74 | 415 | 1843 | 267 | 139 | 81 | 72% | 4.0 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.38 | 5.23 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 888 | 128 | 67 | 39 | 72% | 4.0 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.38 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Myers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.49 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 33 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 80 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 79 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 76 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 74 |
| Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 74 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 73 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 72 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 71 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 71 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 71 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 70 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 69 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 4.44 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |