Connor Lunn
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%21.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 23 | 120 | 492 | 121 | 20 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 23 | 120 | 492 | 121 | 20 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 24.6% | 4.1% | 20.5% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 2.88 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 21 | 17 | 82 | 369 | 78 | 24 | 15 | 81% | 3.9 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 6.61 | 4.91 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 21 | 17 | 82 | 369 | 78 | 24 | 15 | 81% | 3.9 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 6.61 | 4.46 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 23 | 130 | 554 | 111 | 31 | 17 | 92% | 5.2 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 23 | 130 | 554 | 111 | 31 | 17 | 92% | 5.2 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.87 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 83 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 79 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 73 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 66 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 53 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 5.14 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 40 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 5.14 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 266 | 1121 | 247 | 100 | 42 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.44 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 75 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 63 | 337 | 1433 | 251 | 86 | 47 | 85% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.17 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 851 | 149 | 51 | 28 | 85% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Lunn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 21.9% | 13.3% | 242 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 83 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 83 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 80 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 78 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 78 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .251 | 4.23 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.67 | 2.82 | 536 | 77 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 76 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 76 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 76 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 76 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 75 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 75 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 75 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 74 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 74 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 73 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 73 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 73 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 75 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 1.38 | 4.63 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |