Connor Lunn
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+1.2
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 23 | 120 | 492 | 121 | 20 | 12 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.67 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 21 | 17 | 82 | 369 | 78 | 24 | 15 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.61 | 5.11 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 23 | 130 | 554 | 111 | 31 | 17 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 111 | 43 | 15 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 108 | 42 | 15 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 104 | 41 | 15 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 99 | 40 | 15 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 94 | 39 | 15 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 88 | 38 | 14 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 83 | 37 | 14 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 76 | 36 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 70 | 34 | 13 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 63 | 337 | 1433 | 251 | 86 | 50 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.31 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 851 | 149 | 51 | 30 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.31 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Lunn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 21.5% | 13.0% | 341 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 88 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 86 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 85 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 82 |
| Michael Bowden R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 81 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .251 | 4.24 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.53 | 2.78 | 536 | 80 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 80 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 78 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 78 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.22 | 3.49 | 433 | 78 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 77 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 77 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 77 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.