Connor Lunn — OGILVIE

Connor Lunn P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%18.9%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	120	492	121	20	12	96%	5.0	18.9%	4.7%	14.3%	2.9%	3.96	3.67	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	23	120	492	121	20	12	96%	5.0	24.6%	4.1%	20.5%	2.4%	3.96	2.88	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	21	17	82	369	78	24	15	81%	3.9	17.1%	7.2%	10.0%	4.6%	6.61	5.06	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	21	17	82	369	78	24	15	81%	3.9	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	4.1%	6.61	4.46	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	16.2%	6.2%	10.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.38	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	16.2%	6.2%	10.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.38	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	23	130	554	111	31	17	92%	5.2	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.1%	4.71	3.81	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	4	0	5	18	5	3	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	3.86	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TB	1	1	8	34	6	2	1	100%	8.0	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	86	363	69	27	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.57	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	81	341	64	27	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	75	318	66	23	11	100%	5.8	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	70	294	60	23	11	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	27	114	22	9	4	100%	6.8	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.57	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	42	177	33	14	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	49	207	43	15	7	100%	6.1	20.6%	7.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2030	32	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	44	17	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	169	715	142	54	25	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.33	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	64	30	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		74	63	337	1433	251	86	50	85%	4.5	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.29	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	851	149	51	30	85%	4.5	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.29	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Lunn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	18.9%	7.2%	3.0%	—	4.64	19.5%	11.9%	242	+0.18	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	87
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	86
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	85
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	83
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	80
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	79
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	79
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	78
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	78
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	78
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	77
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	77
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	76
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	76
Jeremy Kehrt R 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	15.2%	5.3%	1.6%	.297	4.25	12.1%	3.9%	143	+0.88	3.37	262	76
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	75
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	80	19.5%	7.5%	1.31	4.59
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45