Caleb Kilian

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 206 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	18	8	59	3.79	3.40	19.6%	8.6%	0.8	K 17.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.02
2025	28	MIX2 levels	11	1	16	7.47	5.97	18.4%	9.2%	—	K 17.7% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.42
2026	29	MLBPHI	49	0	48	4.91	3.65	26.8%	9.6%	0.5
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	22	0	23	4.26	4.25	25.8%	10.5%	0.1
2028PROJ87% MLB	31	MLBPHI	55	0	58	4.39	4.48	24.6%	10.6%	0.0
2029PROJ89% MLB	32	MLBPHI	51	0	54	4.58	4.72	23.6%	10.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

K%75

xwOBA vs71

CompsJunior Guerra (age 30) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.26

FIP4.25

K%25.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.49	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	23.4%	3.7%	19.6%	1.5%	2.42	2.42	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	29.2%	3.4%	25.8%	1.3%	2.42	1.90	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	22.3%	13.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.81	3.74	+2.3
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	1.3%	4.81	3.38	+2.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	3.8%	5.08	4.61	+1.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	18.3%	6.8%	11.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.15	+1.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	17.5%	6.3%	11.2%	1.1%	3.79	3.02	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	17.5%	6.3%	11.2%	1.1%	3.79	3.02	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	1.6%	3.79	3.40	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	4.7%	7.47	5.42	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	4.7%	7.47	5.42	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	5.3%	7.47	5.97	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.9%	4.91	3.65	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	5	75	346	77	39	8	9%	1.3	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	2.3%	6.48	3.99	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	22	0	23	97	25	10	3	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.26	4.25	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	64	0	67	282	70	30	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	57	0	60	253	60	27	9	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.72	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	55	0	58	245	60	26	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	51	0	54	228	54	25	8	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	5	187	817	191	89	23	3%	1.1	23.4%	10.9%	12.4%	2.9%	5.28	4.09	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	5	200	876	205	95	25	3%	1.1	23.4%	10.9%	12.4%	2.9%	5.28	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		160	87	479	2044	420	166	46	54%	3.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.4%	2.2%	4.23	3.63	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	36	200	854	176	70	19	54%	3.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.4%	2.2%	4.23	3.63	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 13 IPFIP 5.38 → 5.42 (+0.04)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.860	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.125	×1.100	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 5.38 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 45 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.02 (+0.16)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.32%	—	×0.860	17.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.95%	—	×0.900	6.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.079	×1.100	1.09%

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 4 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.66 (+0.77)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 120 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.61 (+0.39)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.55%	—	×0.860	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.84%	—	×0.900	6.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷0.965	×1.100	3.78%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 107 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.69 (+0.43)K% 26.2% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.880	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.34%	—	×1.050	12.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATennessee Smokies · 79 IPFIP 2.29 → 2.88 (+0.59)K% 26.0% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.97%	—	×0.810	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.90%	—	×1.100	4.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.050	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Eugene Emeralds · 22 IPFIP -0.33 → 0.52 (+0.85)K% 42.7% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.67%	—	×0.770	32.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.33%	—	×1.150	1.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.049	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.33 → 0.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Giants Orange · 12 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.35 (+0.86)K% 26.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.680	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Kilian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	25.8%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.59	24.2%	13.5%	127	+0.34	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	69
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	61
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	61
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	61
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	61
Antonio Guzman R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SW	3.15	19.7%	10.0%	0.8%	.249	4.96	19.3%	4.6%	44	+1.81	3.15	254	60
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	60
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	60
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	60
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	58
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	58
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	58
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	58
José De León R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	30	SW	3.62	21.0%	8.4%	2.2%	.301	5.66	21.1%	8.2%	75	+2.04	3.24	445	58
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	57
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	57
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	57
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	58	23.7%	11.2%	1.13	5.10
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*