Caleb Kilian — OGILVIE

Caleb Kilian P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 206 lbs MLB ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA4.00

FIP4.00

K%22.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+4.2 (63%)

SI (13%)

CU (24%)

SL-1.0 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.49	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	6	5	12	42	11	2	0	83%	2.0	26.2%	4.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	23.4%	3.7%	19.6%	1.5%	2.42	2.42	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	100	383	112	13	5	100%	5.3	29.2%	3.4%	25.8%	1.3%	2.42	1.90	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	22.3%	13.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.81	3.74	+1.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	118	534	134	70	7	100%	4.1	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	1.3%	4.81	3.38	+2.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	5.08	4.66	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	5.08	4.66	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	126	545	100	37	17	89%	4.5	18.3%	6.8%	11.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.15	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	16.9%	6.3%	10.6%	1.1%	3.79	3.07	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	16.9%	6.3%	10.6%	1.1%	3.79	3.07	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	8	59	255	50	22	4	44%	3.3	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	1.6%	3.79	3.40	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	4.7%	7.47	5.48	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	4.7%	7.47	5.48	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	1	16	76	14	7	4	9%	1.4	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	5.3%	7.47	5.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	5	75	346	77	39	8	9%	1.3	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	2.3%	6.48	3.99	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	4.91	3.52	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	PHI	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.9%	4.91	3.63	+0.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	PHI	49	0	48	209	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.9%	4.91	3.63	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	3.0%	4.00	4.00	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	3.0%	4.00	4.00	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	54	234	61	22	7	—	—	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.9%	4.81	3.57	+0.6
FULL	29	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	54	226	61	22	7	—	—	27.2%	9.8%	17.4%	3.0%	4.81	3.68	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	130	0	137	578	119	53	18	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.64	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	122	0	128	540	108	51	18	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.72	4.84	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	124	0	130	549	113	51	17	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.64	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	115	0	121	511	102	48	17	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.72	4.84	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	5	332	1433	298	140	43	2%	1.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.0%	5.04	4.24	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	3	200	862	179	84	26	2%	1.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.0%	5.04	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		160	87	479	2044	415	166	46	54%	3.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	2.2%	4.23	3.65	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	36	200	854	174	70	19	54%	3.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	2.2%	4.23	3.65	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Kilian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	17.4%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.74	20.3%	11.0%	265	-0.02	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	67
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	67
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	67
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	67
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	67
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	66
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	66
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	64
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	63
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	63
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	63
Juan Nicasio R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	29	SW	3.60	26.9%	8.2%	3.2%	.321	2.94	24.6%	19.0%	162	-0.66	2.46	338	63
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	62
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	62
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	62
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	133	19.4%	9.1%	1.23	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56