Caleb Kilian
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 206 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP3.51
SIERA3.21
K%20.2%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.5%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL2020
CMD3030
K†4550
FB+4.2 (58%)
SI (8%)
CU (28%)
SL-1.0 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 6 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 19 | 19 | 100 | 383 | 112 | 13 | 5 | 23.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 2.42 | 2.39 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 118 | 534 | 134 | 70 | 7 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 4.81 | 3.74 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 25 | 126 | 545 | 100 | 37 | 17 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 18 | 8 | 59 | 255 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 1.1% | 3.79 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 11 | 1 | 16 | 76 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 7.47 | 5.58 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 8 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SF | 20 | — | 20 | 87 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | SF | — | — | 28 | 114 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 27 | — | 27 | 113 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 87 | 438 | 1862 | 378 | 160 | 41 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 4.11 | 3.68 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 40 | 200 | 850 | 173 | 73 | 19 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 4.11 | 3.68 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Kilian (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 27 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 91 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 81 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 81 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 80 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 79 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 79 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 78 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 78 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 204 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 78 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.46 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.7% | .240 | 4.76 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 92 | -0.70 | 3.58 | 291 | 78 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.