Caleb Kilian
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 206 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 108 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87
ERA4.06
FIP4.06
K%22.7%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP108
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p8228.1%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
FB+4.2 (62%)
SI (13%)
CU (25%)
SL-1.0 (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 6 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 83% | 2.0 | 26.2% | 4.8% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.49 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 6 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 83% | 2.0 | 26.2% | 4.8% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.77 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 100 | 383 | 112 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.4% | 3.7% | 19.6% | 1.4% | 2.42 | 2.38 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 100 | 383 | 112 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 29.2% | 3.4% | 25.8% | 1.3% | 2.42 | 1.90 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 118 | 534 | 134 | 70 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 4.81 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 118 | 534 | 134 | 70 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 4.81 | 3.38 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 126 | 545 | 100 | 37 | 17 | 89% | 4.5 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 5.08 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 126 | 545 | 100 | 37 | 17 | 89% | 4.5 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 8 | 59 | 255 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 44% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 1.0% | 3.79 | 3.07 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 8 | 59 | 255 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 44% | 3.3 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 3.79 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 1 | 16 | 76 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 9% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.47 | 5.34 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 1 | 16 | 76 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 9% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 7.47 | 5.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 38 | 0 | 38 | 167 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 3.58 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SF | 103 | 0 | 108 | 455 | 103 | 45 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SF | 103 | 0 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 45 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SF | — | — | 146 | 622 | 150 | 61 | 18 | — | — | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.94 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SF | — | — | 146 | 615 | 150 | 61 | 18 | — | — | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.94 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 130 | 0 | 137 | 578 | 122 | 57 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 110 | 55 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SF | 113 | 0 | 118 | 499 | 98 | 52 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 124 | 0 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 55 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 115 | 0 | 121 | 511 | 104 | 52 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SF | 107 | 0 | 112 | 473 | 93 | 49 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 495 | 5 | 537 | 2295 | 485 | 235 | 72 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.35 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 2 | 200 | 855 | 181 | 88 | 27 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 87 | 469 | 2002 | 415 | 172 | 45 | 58% | 3.1 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 3.68 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 177 | 73 | 19 | 58% | 3.1 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Kilian (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.89 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 383 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 69 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 68 |
| Seth Simmons R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.36 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .262 | 6.19 | 13.3% | 2.4% | 54 | +1.83 | 3.06 | 251 | 67 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.90 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 229 | -0.04 | 3.53 | 365 | 62 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 62 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 62 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 61 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 61 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 340 | 61 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 61 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .327 | 4.10 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.02 | 2.95 | 819 | 61 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 60 |
| Adam Quintana R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 60 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 60 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.47 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 205 | 60 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 60 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.04 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .281 | 5.00 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 139 | +0.96 | 3.93 | 337 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 132 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 1.26 | 4.78 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |