Michael Darrell-Hicks

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 231 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	40	0	62	2.60	1.46	26.4%	4.6%	—	K 21.9% · BB 4.7% · FIP 1.85
2025	27	MIX2 levels	39	0	48	8.25	4.83	21.5%	9.4%	-0.2	K 19.0% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.35
2026	28	MIX3 levels	42	1	48	3.94	3.48	27.2%	12.6%	—	K 23.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.88
2027PROJ	29	MLBPIT	3	0	3	4.51	4.51	21.8%	9.8%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBPIT	8	0	8	4.60	4.67	21.6%	10.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%21.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	9	47	10	8	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	17.0%	4.3%	2.1%	10.61	4.63	—
2022	24	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	9	47	10	8	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	17.0%	4.3%	2.1%	10.61	4.92	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	18	109	465	124	35	8	64%	3.9	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	2.2%	3.88	3.71	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	18	109	465	124	35	8	64%	3.9	26.7%	7.5%	19.1%	1.7%	3.88	2.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	261	69	12	0	0%	1.6	21.9%	4.7%	17.2%	0.0%	2.60	1.85	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	261	69	12	0	0%	1.6	21.9%	4.7%	17.2%	0.0%	2.60	1.85	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	62	261	69	12	0	0%	1.6	26.4%	4.6%	21.8%	0.0%	2.60	1.46	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	48	233	50	22	9	0%	1.2	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	5.1%	8.25	5.35	-0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	48	233	50	22	9	0%	1.2	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	5.1%	8.25	5.35	-0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	48	233	50	22	9	0%	1.2	21.5%	9.4%	12.0%	3.9%	8.25	4.83	-0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	48	206	56	26	4	2%	1.1	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	2.3%	3.94	3.88	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	48	206	56	26	4	2%	1.1	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	2.3%	3.94	3.88	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	48	206	56	26	4	2%	1.1	27.2%	12.6%	14.6%	1.9%	3.94	3.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	10	43	8	4	1	0%	1.4	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.3%	7.45	4.03	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PIT	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PIT	20	0	21	90	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	PIT	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	17	76	15	7	2	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.7%	6.18	4.12	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		165	0	200	869	172	80	23	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.7%	6.18	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		156	19	277	1212	254	105	28	12%	1.8	21.0%	8.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.59	3.69	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	14	200	876	184	76	20	12%	1.8	21.0%	8.6%	12.3%	2.3%	4.59	3.69	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 44 IPFIP 3.61 → 3.88 (+0.27)K% 27.4% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.37%	—	×0.860	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×0.900	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 IPFIP 4.74 → 5.35 (+0.61)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.11%	—	×0.860	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.47%	—	×0.900	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.21%	÷0.915	×1.100	5.06%

Result: FIP 4.74 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 42 IPFIP 1.34 → 1.82 (+0.49)K% 27.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.810	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.100	4.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.34 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 21 IPFIP 1.66 → 1.89 (+0.23)K% 25.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.27%	—	×0.860	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.49%	—	×0.900	4.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.886	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.66 → 1.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 54 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.95 (+0.90)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.11%	—	×0.770	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.150	10.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷0.990	×1.250	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 43 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.88 (+1.07)K% 30.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.46%	—	×0.740	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.17%	—	×1.180	6.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 12 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.30 (+0.92)K% 21.4% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.810	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.100	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.970	×1.200	4.42%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 9 IPFIP 4.63 → 6.02 (+1.40)K% 21.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.28%	—	×0.740	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.02%	—	×1.180	20.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.889	×1.300	3.11%

Result: FIP 4.63 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Darrell-Hicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.8%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.67	21.6%	11.5%	21	+0.16	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	76
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	76
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.2%	9.8%	1.13	5.04
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*