Jacob Barnes

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 231 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	33	MIX2 levels	48	0	65	3.20	3.22	18.8%	8.9%	1.0	K 16.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.38
2024	34	MIX2 levels	70	0	74	3.89	3.91	21.4%	6.6%	0.6	K 19.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.23
2025	35	MIX2 levels	28	0	33	7.36	5.31	16.1%	9.7%	-0.3	K 14.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 6.03
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBTOR	5	0	5	4.62	4.71	19.2%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.93	5.14	18.1%	8.9%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command45FB velo55

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36) · Scott Atchison (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.62

FIP4.71

K%19.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	39	6	75	317	84	29	2	15%	1.9	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	0.7%	3.36	2.95	—
2015	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	39	6	75	317	84	29	2	15%	1.9	26.5%	9.1%	17.4%	0.6%	3.36	2.37	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	52	201	53	12	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	1.1%	1.92	2.47	+1.3
2016	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	52	201	53	12	2	0%	1.1	26.4%	6.0%	20.4%	1.0%	1.92	2.25	+1.4
2017	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	73	0	72	304	80	29	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.46	+0.9
2017	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	73	0	72	304	80	29	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.53	+0.9
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	60	266	57	29	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	1.8%	2.98	3.46	+0.8
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	60	266	57	29	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	1.5%	2.98	3.51	+0.7
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	49	231	53	23	10	2%	1.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	4.7%	6.39	5.09	-0.3
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	49	231	53	23	10	2%	1.0	22.9%	10.0%	13.0%	4.3%	6.39	4.99	-0.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	18	0	18	78	24	4	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	5.1%	25.6%	1.3%	5.50	1.84	+0.6
2020	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	18	0	18	78	24	4	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	5.1%	25.6%	1.3%	5.50	1.82	+0.6
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	43	181	43	15	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	43	181	43	15	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	3.9%	4.40	4.26	+0.1
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	40	173	37	15	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.8%	10.8%	1.6%	4.02	3.45	+0.5
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	40	173	37	15	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.7%	4.02	3.35	+0.6
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	282	53	25	3	0%	1.3	16.6%	8.1%	8.5%	1.2%	3.20	3.38	+0.9
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	65	282	53	25	3	0%	1.3	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	1.1%	3.20	3.22	+1.0
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.6%	3.89	4.23	+0.3
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.6%	3.89	4.23	+0.3
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	21.4%	6.6%	14.8%	3.3%	3.89	3.91	+0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	14.5%	9.1%	5.4%	5.5%	7.36	6.03	-0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	14.5%	9.1%	5.4%	5.5%	7.36	6.03	-0.6
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	16.1%	9.7%	6.5%	3.9%	7.36	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			334	1	337	1464	322	124	43	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.95	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	TOR	30	0	32	135	24	12	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	3.8%	4.93	5.14	-0.2
2028	38	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	3.8%	4.93	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	1	337	1464	322	124	43	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.93	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	870	191	74	26	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		518	7	581	2492	534	214	61	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	2.5%	3.99	3.72	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	2	200	857	184	74	21	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	2.5%	3.99	3.72	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 25 IPFIP 5.26 → 6.03 (+0.76)K% 16.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.81%	—	×0.860	14.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×0.900	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	4.20%	÷0.847	×1.100	5.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 5.26 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 8 IPFIP 0.91 → 1.25 (+0.34)K% 37.0% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.860	31.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.986	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.91 → 1.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 51 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.33 (+0.19)K% 20.4% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.36%	—	×0.860	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×0.900	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷0.955	×1.100	1.04%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 18 IPFIP 1.32 → 1.71 (+0.38)K% 32.9% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.880	28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.050	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.32 → 1.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 14 IPFIP 2.46 → 2.70 (+0.24)K% 18.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.87%	—	×0.880	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.050	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.081	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.46 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 17 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.77 (+0.49)K% 29.6% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.58%	—	×0.880	26.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.82%	—	×1.050	2.96%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.023	×1.100	4.54%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 12 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.75 (+0.31)K% 20.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.41%	—	×0.880	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×1.050	17.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.124	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 22 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.91 (+0.42)K% 27.4% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.880	24.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.050	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.973	×1.100	1.35%

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Barnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.2%	8.2%	3.3%	—	5.14	18.1%	9.2%	32	+0.43	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	84
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	77
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	71
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	70
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	70
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	70
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	69
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	69
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	64
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	63
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	60
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	52
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	42
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	38
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	47	21.4%	9.0%	1.18	4.78
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*