Jacob Barnes — OGILVIE

Jacob Barnes P Buffalo Bisons

Age 36 RHP 6'2" / 231 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.70

FIP4.74

K%18.6%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

CT+2.4 (38%)

FB-1.3 (38%)

SL-1.9 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	39	6	75	317	84	29	2	15%	1.9	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	0.7%	3.36	2.95	—
2015	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	39	6	75	317	84	29	2	15%	1.9	26.5%	9.1%	17.4%	0.6%	3.36	2.37	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	52	201	53	12	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	1.1%	1.92	2.47	+1.3
2016	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	52	201	53	12	2	0%	1.1	26.4%	6.0%	20.4%	1.0%	1.92	2.25	+1.4
2017	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	73	0	72	304	80	29	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.46	+0.9
2017	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	73	0	72	304	80	29	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.53	+0.9
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	60	266	57	29	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	1.8%	2.98	3.46	+0.8
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	60	266	57	29	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	1.5%	2.98	3.51	+0.7
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	49	231	53	23	10	2%	1.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	4.7%	6.39	5.09	-0.3
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	49	231	53	23	10	2%	1.0	22.9%	10.0%	13.0%	4.3%	6.39	4.99	-0.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	18	0	18	78	24	4	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	5.1%	25.6%	1.3%	5.50	1.84	+0.6
2020	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	18	0	18	78	24	4	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	5.1%	25.6%	1.3%	5.50	1.82	+0.6
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	43	181	43	15	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	43	181	43	15	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	3.9%	4.40	4.26	+0.1
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	40	173	37	15	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.8%	10.8%	1.6%	4.02	3.45	+0.5
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	40	173	37	15	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.7%	4.02	3.35	+0.6
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	282	53	25	3	0%	1.3	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	1.2%	3.20	3.42	+0.9
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	282	53	25	3	0%	1.3	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	1.2%	3.20	3.42	+0.9
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	65	282	53	25	3	0%	1.3	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	1.1%	3.20	3.22	+1.0
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.6%	3.89	4.23	+0.3
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.6%	3.89	4.23	+0.3
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	74	304	65	20	10	0%	1.1	21.4%	6.6%	14.8%	3.3%	3.89	3.91	+0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.1%	4.9%	5.5%	7.36	6.07	-0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.1%	4.9%	5.5%	7.36	6.07	-0.6
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	33	155	25	15	6	0%	1.2	16.1%	9.7%	6.5%	3.9%	7.36	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			334	1	337	1464	322	124	43	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.95	+2.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	TOR	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	TOR	41	0	43	182	32	15	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.8%	4.97	5.14	-0.3
2027	37	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.8%	4.97	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	1	337	1466	322	124	43	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.93	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	870	191	74	26	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.79	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		518	7	581	2492	532	214	61	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	2.5%	3.99	3.73	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	2	200	857	183	74	21	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	2.5%	3.99	3.73	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Barnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	18.6%	7.8%	3.4%	—	5.14	17.5%	9.1%	43	+0.40	—	—	—
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	80
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	79
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	78
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	77
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	76
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	76
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	73
Felipe Paulino R 2019 · 5.82 FIP	35	SU	5.82	19.2%	9.4%	5.7%	.385	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	150	73
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	72
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	72
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	71
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	71
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	69
Tommy Hunter R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	36	SU	3.98	22.1%	4.5%	4.0%	.292	5.22	18.9%	14.2%	24	+1.24	2.78	316	69
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	69
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	68
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	18.1%	8.1%	1.38	4.83
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50