Logan Workman
P
Durham Bulls
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 165 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.11
FIP4.11
K%21.0%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP165
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 230 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 6 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 34.1% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.87 | 1.76 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 6 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 34.1% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.87 | 1.84 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 114 | 453 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 96% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 2.93 | 4.30 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 114 | 453 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 96% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 6.4% | 19.0% | 2.9% | 2.93 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 70 | 296 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 94% | 3.9 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 70 | 296 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 94% | 3.9 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 18.9% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 146 | 597 | 138 | 44 | 12 | 97% | 5.0 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 2.96 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 146 | 597 | 138 | 44 | 12 | 97% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 2.96 | 3.18 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 28 | 152 | 623 | 152 | 45 | 27 | 97% | 5.3 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 28 | 152 | 623 | 152 | 45 | 27 | 97% | 5.3 | 24.4% | 7.2% | 17.2% | 4.3% | 4.02 | 4.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 21 | 9 | 65 | 310 | 80 | 38 | 11 | 43% | 3.1 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 6.78 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 157 | 0 | 165 | 697 | 146 | 48 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +2.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 230 | 1007 | 226 | 86 | 30 | — | — | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.35 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 16 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 21.0% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 3.69 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 146 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 158 | 665 | 138 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 128 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 117 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.71 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 128 | 539 | 106 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 82 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.29 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 90 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 92 | 37 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 89 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 80 | 498 | 2104 | 429 | 164 | 67 | 83% | 5.2 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.13 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 66 | 27 | 84% | 5.2 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 109 | 557 | 2320 | 481 | 198 | 67 | 84% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 4.02 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 39 | 200 | 833 | 173 | 71 | 24 | 84% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan Workman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.35 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 471 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 81 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 79 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 78 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 78 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 78 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 75 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.39 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.91 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.52 | 2.71 | 598 | 75 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 74 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 74 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 74 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.58 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | .249 | 5.16 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 83 | +1.58 | 3.47 | 824 | 73 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 73 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 72 |
| Bruce Billings R 2028 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.01 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 0.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 121 | 72 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 72 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 72 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.29 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.56 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 307 | +0.27 | 2.75 | 902 | 71 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 150 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 1.23 | 4.37 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |