Logan Workman — OGILVIE

Logan Workman P Durham Bulls

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%20.0%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	6	2	10	41	14	5	0	33%	1.7	34.1%	12.2%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.76	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	6	2	10	41	14	5	0	33%	1.7	34.1%	12.2%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.84	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	114	453	115	29	13	96%	4.4	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	3.5%	2.93	4.33	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	114	453	115	29	13	96%	4.4	25.4%	6.4%	19.0%	2.9%	2.93	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	70	296	78	22	7	94%	3.9	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	2.8%	3.73	3.94	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	70	296	78	22	7	94%	3.9	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	2.8%	3.73	3.94	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	70	296	78	22	7	94%	3.9	26.4%	7.4%	18.9%	2.4%	3.73	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	146	597	138	44	12	97%	5.0	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.4%	2.96	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	146	597	138	44	12	97%	5.0	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.4%	2.96	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	146	597	138	44	12	97%	5.0	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	2.0%	2.96	3.18	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	29	28	152	623	152	45	27	97%	5.3	20.3%	6.5%	13.7%	3.5%	4.02	4.11	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	29	28	152	623	152	45	27	97%	5.3	20.3%	6.5%	13.7%	3.5%	4.02	4.11	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	29	28	152	623	152	45	27	97%	5.3	24.4%	7.2%	17.2%	4.3%	4.02	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	30	15	98	449	110	48	14	50%	3.3	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	5.81	4.48	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	30	15	98	449	110	48	14	50%	3.3	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	5.81	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	TB	30	15	98	449	110	48	14	50%	3.3	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.1%	5.81	4.10	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	15	63	13	4	2	100%	7.5	20.0%	6.2%	13.9%	3.1%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.0%	6.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.32	4.32	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	113	512	123	52	16	—	—	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.1%	5.60	4.46	+0.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	20.0%	6.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.32	3.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	28	28	165	697	140	45	22	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.2%	4.32	4.36	+1.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	158	665	133	45	22	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.41	4.48	+0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	148	625	124	45	22	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.55	4.65	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	138	583	113	44	22	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.7%	4.72	4.84	+0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	128	539	102	43	21	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	4.0%	4.93	5.06	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	70	296	59	19	10	100%	5.8	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.3%	4.37	4.41	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	93	393	79	27	13	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	3.4%	4.46	4.53	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	104	439	87	31	16	100%	6.1	19.8%	7.1%	12.6%	3.6%	4.61	4.71	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	108	456	89	34	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.8%	4.78	4.90	+0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	107	452	86	36	19	100%	5.9	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	4.1%	5.00	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	483	2041	400	147	75	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.67	4.38	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	61	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.67	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		138	115	590	2459	493	193	76	83%	4.3	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.1%	3.75	4.09	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	834	167	65	26	83%	4.3	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.1%	3.75	4.09	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Workman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	20.0%	6.2%	3.1%	—	4.49	20.0%	13.2%	471	+0.22	—	—	—
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	83
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	80
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	79
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	79
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	78
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	77
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	74
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	20.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	4.11	16.2%	9.2%	260	-0.21	3.53	612	74
Jack Cushing R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SP-	5.04	19.8%	5.6%	5.3%	.315	4.37	18.8%	11.5%	156	-0.67	3.69	523	74
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	74
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	73
Josh A. Smith R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.87	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.91	598	73
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	73
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	73
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	73
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	72
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	275	72
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	150	19.8%	6.9%	1.34	4.51
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38