Logan Workman
P
Durham Bulls
+1.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%13.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 6 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.87 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 26 | 25 | 114 | 453 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.93 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 18 | 17 | 70 | 296 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 28 | 146 | 597 | 138 | 44 | 12 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 2.96 | 3.84 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 28 | 152 | 623 | 152 | 45 | 27 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 4 | 4 | 19 | 83 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 27.6% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 7.11 | 6.58 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 109 | 41 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 139 | 590 | 135 | 50 | 22 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 109 | 41 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 106 | 40 | 16 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 102 | 39 | 15 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 39 | 15 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 92 | 38 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 87 | 37 | 15 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 81 | 36 | 14 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 75 | 35 | 14 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 68 | 33 | 13 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 104 | 511 | 2093 | 434 | 168 | 67 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.49 | 4.11 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 41 | 200 | 819 | 170 | 66 | 26 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.49 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan Workman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.44 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 352 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 88 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 88 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 88 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 87 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 84 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 83 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 82 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 82 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 82 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 81 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 80 |
| Tristan Beck R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .271 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 118 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 442 | 80 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 79 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 79 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.12 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 178 | 79 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 78 |
| Heath Holder R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $10M | $33M | +$23M | ||