Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 7 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 43% | 2.0 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 5.27 | 5.32 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 7 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 43% | 2.0 | 22.8% | 5.3% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 3.76 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 88 | 376 | 69 | 26 | 5 | 90% | 4.2 | 14.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.36 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 88 | 376 | 69 | 26 | 5 | 90% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 3.16 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 131 | 552 | 112 | 35 | 12 | 79% | 4.5 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 131 | 552 | 112 | 35 | 12 | 79% | 4.5 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 113 | 514 | 71 | 47 | 18 | 52% | 3.6 | 11.5% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 6.79 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 113 | 514 | 71 | 47 | 18 | 52% | 3.6 | 13.8% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.79 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 38 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 11.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.69 | 5.69 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 45 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.1% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.46 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 44 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.1% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.46 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 37 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 5.08 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 122 | 79 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 5.08 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 61 | 345 | 1499 | 216 | 120 | 48 | 69% | 3.9 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.64 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 35 | 200 | 868 | 125 | 70 | 28 | 69% | 3.9 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Kollar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.69 | 11.2% | 9.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.45 | 14.2% | 5.1% | 148 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 82 |
| Colin Bates R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 82 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 81 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.50 | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.84 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 50 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 209 | 80 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 80 |
| David Fletcher R 2028 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.26 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 412 | 78 |
| Tony Bucciferro R 2023 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 107 | 78 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 76 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 75 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 75 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2023 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 75 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 75 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 75 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.54 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.59 | 3.16 | 593 | 73 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 73 |
| Zach Nuding R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.99 | 12.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.99 | 146 | 73 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 72 |
| Chris Jensen R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 76 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 5.54 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |