Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 25 | 145 | 605 | 129 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 3.29 | 3.14 | +3.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 25 | 145 | 605 | 129 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 6.4% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.29 | 3.29 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 98 | 413 | 94 | 30 | 16 | 81% | 4.7 | 22.4% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 3.77 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 98 | 413 | 94 | 30 | 16 | 81% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 7.3% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 32 | 176 | 737 | 164 | 58 | 30 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 3.93 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 32 | 176 | 737 | 164 | 58 | 30 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 4.1% | 4.55 | 4.44 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 5 | 5 | 21 | 106 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 11.76 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 5 | 5 | 21 | 106 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 11.76 | 7.50 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 13 | 11 | 60 | 260 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 85% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 4.37 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 13 | 11 | 60 | 260 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 85% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 4.37 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 167 | 703 | 134 | 36 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.1% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 4.0% | 4.53 | 4.36 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 167 | 703 | 134 | 36 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.1% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 4.53 | 4.24 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 28 | 179 | 707 | 138 | 34 | 14 | 93% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 4.8% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 2.57 | 3.21 | +4.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 28 | 179 | 707 | 138 | 34 | 14 | 93% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 4.8% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 2.57 | 3.14 | +4.7 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 27 | 25 | 141 | 629 | 119 | 63 | 20 | 93% | 5.2 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.58 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 27 | 25 | 141 | 629 | 119 | 63 | 20 | 93% | 5.2 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 31 | 31 | 179 | 765 | 142 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 3.81 | 4.49 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 31 | 31 | 179 | 765 | 142 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 3.81 | 4.44 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 599 | 104 | 53 | 28 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 4.56 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 599 | 104 | 53 | 28 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.56 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 90 | 49 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 472 | 74 | 46 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.47 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 96 | 406 | 59 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.4% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.92 | 6.22 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 74 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.74 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 58 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.4% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.87 | 6.17 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 258 | 1467 | 6225 | 1177 | 492 | 223 | 97% | 5.5 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.47 | +15.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 160 | 67 | 30 | 97% | 5.5 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 241 | 231 | 1302 | 5524 | 1080 | 417 | 176 | 96% | 5.4 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +19.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 166 | 64 | 27 | 96% | 5.4 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.38 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | — | 5.98 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 208 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Eric Stults L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 49 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 47 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 46 |
| Barry Zito L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 46 |
| Chris Narveson L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 44 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 20.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.79 | 19.0% | 11.7% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 43 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.39 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 478 | 43 |
| Jason Lane L 2028 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 42 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.80 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.08 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 141 | +0.28 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 40 |
| Marlon Arias L 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 39 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 39 |
| Andrew Albers L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 38 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.63 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .337 | 5.23 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.60 | 4.40 | 408 | 35 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 33 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 31 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 609 | 30 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 6.38 FIP | 36 | SP- | 6.38 | 14.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 25 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 23 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 23 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 22 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 112 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 1.67 | 5.42 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |