Owen Wild

P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	22	121	2.82	2.56	30.4%	6.2%	—	K 23.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.67
2025	23	AATB	23	23	105	4.71	4.37	21.5%	8.7%	—	K 17.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.41
2026	24	MIX2 levels	45	0	61	4.60	3.36	33.1%	8.5%	—	K 27.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	7	0	7	4.72	4.72	22.9%	9.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBTB	28	0	29	4.66	4.65	23.0%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBTB	35	0	37	4.65	4.66	22.9%	9.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsDavid Phelps (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25) · Derek Gordon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%22.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	121	497	151	31	11	92%	5.1	23.2%	7.2%	15.9%	2.9%	2.82	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	121	497	151	31	11	92%	5.1	23.2%	7.2%	15.9%	2.9%	2.82	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	121	497	151	31	11	92%	5.1	30.4%	6.2%	24.1%	2.2%	2.82	2.56	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	23	23	105	446	96	39	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	4.7%	4.71	5.41	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	23	23	105	446	96	39	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	4.7%	4.71	5.41	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	23	23	105	446	96	39	16	100%	4.6	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	3.6%	4.71	4.37	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	248	82	21	9	0%	1.3	27.8%	8.3%	19.4%	4.0%	4.60	4.03	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	248	82	21	9	0%	1.3	27.8%	8.3%	19.4%	4.0%	4.60	4.03	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	248	82	21	9	0%	1.3	33.1%	8.5%	24.6%	3.6%	4.60	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.6%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	74	0	78	328	76	31	12	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.5%	4.66	4.65	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	67	0	70	295	68	27	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	3.5%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	62	0	65	273	62	25	10	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.3%	13.4%	3.6%	4.69	4.73	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	57	0	60	251	57	24	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.8%	4.78	4.85	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	54	226	50	22	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.3%	4.0%	4.93	5.02	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	28	0	29	122	28	11	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.5%	4.66	4.65	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	35	0	37	156	36	14	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	3.5%	4.65	4.66	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	40	17	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.3%	13.4%	3.6%	4.69	4.73	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	40	17	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.8%	4.78	4.85	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	39	0	41	173	38	17	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.3%	4.0%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	0	191	806	183	76	30	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	3.7%	4.75	4.41	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	80	31	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	3.7%	4.75	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		93	45	288	1195	264	100	45	48%	3.1	22.1%	8.3%	13.7%	3.8%	3.88	4.38	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	31	200	830	183	69	32	48%	3.1	22.1%	8.3%	13.7%	3.8%	3.88	4.38	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 40 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.67 (+0.52)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.860	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 21 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.67 (+0.94)K% 41.2% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.25%	—	×0.810	33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.25%	—	×1.100	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 105 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.41 (+1.05)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.52%	—	×0.810	17.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.100	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.922	×1.200	4.67%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 86 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.46 (+1.02)K% 31.9% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.92%	—	×0.770	24.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.21%	—	×1.150	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.015	×1.250	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 35 IPFIP 2.80 → 4.20 (+1.39)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.57%	—	×0.740	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.29%	—	×1.180	7.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷0.824	×1.300	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Wild (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.68	22.9%	13.6%	212	-0.04	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	86
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	82
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	80
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	80
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	79
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	77
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	77
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	77
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	77
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	22.8%	9.4%	1.41	4.73
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*