Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 1.69 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 1.74 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 5 | 41 | 180 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 29% | 2.4 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.53 | 4.65 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 5 | 41 | 180 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 29% | 2.4 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 5.53 | 3.52 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 22 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.3% | 19.4% | -2.1% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 22 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 16.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 10 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 5.93 | 3.99 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 10 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.5% | 8.2% | 21.3% | 3.3% | 5.93 | 3.47 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 0 | 27 | 107 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.9% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.94 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 0 | 27 | 107 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.0% | 5.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.54 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 41 | 0 | 46 | 188 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 2.39 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 41 | 0 | 46 | 188 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 1.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 11 | 0 | 12 | 55 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 6.5% | 5.25 | 5.72 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 70 | 299 | 60 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.2% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 3.72 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 73 | 310 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.21 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 65 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 5 | 165 | 708 | 136 | 65 | 11 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.66 | 3.52 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 6 | 200 | 860 | 165 | 79 | 14 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.66 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Deppermann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 2.4% | — | 4.54 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 149 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 89 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 89 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 89 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 87 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 86 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 85 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 85 |
| Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 85 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 85 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 84 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 84 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 83 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 16.0% | 4.6% | 1.4% | .299 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 17.7% | 123 | +0.12 | 2.82 | 316 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 82 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 82 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.84 | 14.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | .276 | 2.73 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 27 | -1.11 | 2.73 | 141 | 81 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 4.33 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |