Shohei Tomioka
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 197 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%18.0%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%3.5%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 9 | 72 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 6 | 36% | 2.9 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.06 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 9 | 72 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 6 | 36% | 2.9 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 1.9% | 4.65 | 3.06 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 21 | 2 | 36 | 175 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10% | 1.7 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 0.3% | 4.8% | 7.32 | 6.25 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 21 | 2 | 36 | 175 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 10.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 7.32 | 5.26 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 251 | 61 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 3.90 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 251 | 61 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 0.8% | 3.90 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 39 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 47 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 4.14 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 39 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 47 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 4.14 | 3.18 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 52 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 13.8% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 4.44 | 3.63 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 52 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 0.9% | 4.44 | 3.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 26 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.81 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 44 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | OAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 84 | 355 | 70 | 47 | 10 | — | — | 19.7% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 5.09 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 41 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 38 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.42 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.42 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 73 | 310 | 56 | 45 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.03 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 123 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 193 | 11 | 289 | 1293 | 232 | 159 | 28 | 6% | 1.5 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 4.63 | 4.33 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 8 | 200 | 894 | 160 | 110 | 19 | 6% | 1.5 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 4.63 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shohei Tomioka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.4% | — | 5.38 | 18.0% | 3.7% | 149 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 87 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 87 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 86 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 80 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 79 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 79 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 78 |
| Drew Hayes R 2024 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 78 |
| Collin Balester R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 77 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.61 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 185 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 150 | 75 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 74 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 1.07 | 5.21 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |