Shohei Tomioka — OGILVIE

Shohei Tomioka P Midland RockHounds

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 197 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%18.0%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	9	72	318	78	25	6	36%	2.9	18.9%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	4.65	4.00	—
2021	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	25	9	72	318	78	25	6	36%	2.9	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	1.9%	4.65	3.06	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	21	2	36	175	29	19	6	10%	1.7	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	4.5%	7.32	6.10	—
2022	26	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	21	2	36	175	29	19	6	10%	1.7	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	3.4%	7.32	5.26	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	55	251	61	35	2	0%	1.5	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	1.0%	3.90	3.83	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	55	251	61	35	2	0%	1.5	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	1.0%	3.90	3.83	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	55	251	61	35	2	0%	1.5	24.3%	13.9%	10.4%	0.8%	3.90	3.26	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	17.5%	12.2%	5.4%	1.2%	4.14	3.81	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	17.5%	12.2%	5.4%	1.2%	4.14	3.81	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	0.9%	4.14	3.18	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.7%	0.7%	4.44	3.65	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.7%	0.7%	4.44	3.65	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	0.9%	4.44	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	41	0	44	197	46	19	10	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	6.1%	5.68	6.19	—
YTD	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	41	0	44	197	46	19	10	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	6.1%	5.68	6.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AA RAW	OAK	41	0	44	197	46	19	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	5.1%	5.68	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	227	41	33	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	2.6%	5.14	5.22	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	38	30	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.7%	2.9%	5.26	5.38	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	13	10	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	2.6%	5.14	5.22	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	20	16	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.3%	3.7%	2.9%	5.26	5.38	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	179	32	26	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.7%	2.8%	5.21	4.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	123	24	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.7%	2.8%	5.21	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		208	11	308	1379	248	165	34	5%	1.5	18.0%	12.0%	6.0%	2.5%	4.86	4.46	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	7	200	896	161	107	22	5%	1.5	18.0%	12.0%	6.0%	2.5%	4.86	4.46	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shohei Tomioka (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	18.0%	14.5%	2.4%	—	5.30	18.1%	3.7%	104	+0.20	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	88
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	77
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	77
Vin Mazzaro R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	29	SU	4.04	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	77
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	75
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	74
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	150	74
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	74
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	74
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	73
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	73
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	73
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.0%	14.4%	1.02	5.16
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48