Shohei Tomioka
P
Midland RockHounds
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.4%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 9 | 72 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 6 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 21 | 2 | 36 | 175 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 7.32 | 6.08 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 37 | 0 | 55 | 251 | 61 | 35 | 2 | 19.9% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 3.90 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 39 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 47 | 24 | 2 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 1.2% | 4.14 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 45 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 52 | 25 | 2 | 18.4% | 13.8% | 0.7% | 4.44 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 32 | 21 | 4 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 43 | 181 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 20.3% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 20.1% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 171 | 11 | 268 | 1204 | 216 | 147 | 23 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 4.19 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 8 | 200 | 897 | 161 | 110 | 17 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shohei Tomioka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.80 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 105 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 92 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 86 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 85 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 85 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 81 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 78 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.38 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.6% | .301 | 5.33 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.95 | 3.54 | 200 | 78 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 78 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 78 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 77 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 77 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 76 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.45 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 162 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.