Shohei Tomioka

P Midland RockHounds

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 197 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	AAOAK	39	50	4.14	3.18	21.7%	11.1%	—	K 17.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.81
2025	29	MIX2 levels	45	51	4.44	3.04	23.5%	11.3%	—	K 18.4% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.65
2026	30	AAOAK	42	46	5.44	5.02	24.1%	9.4%	—	K 19.6% · BB 10.3% · FIP 6.00
2027PROJ	31	MLBOAK	1	1	5.33	5.33	18.7%	12.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBOAK	11	12	5.36	5.45	18.7%	12.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBOAK	15	16	5.48	5.62	18.6%	13.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control35Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Angel Castro (age 32) · Miguel Mejia (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	9	72	318	78	25	6	36%	2.9	18.9%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	4.65	4.00	—
2021	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	25	9	72	318	78	25	6	36%	2.9	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	1.9%	4.65	3.06	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	21	2	36	175	29	19	6	10%	1.7	12.8%	12.5%	0.3%	4.5%	7.32	6.10	—
2022	26	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	21	2	36	175	29	19	6	10%	1.7	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	3.4%	7.32	5.26	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	55	251	61	35	2	0%	1.5	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	1.0%	3.90	3.82	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	55	251	61	35	2	0%	1.5	24.3%	13.9%	10.4%	0.8%	3.90	3.26	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	17.5%	12.2%	5.4%	1.2%	4.14	3.81	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	17.5%	12.2%	5.4%	1.2%	4.14	3.81	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	39	0	50	217	47	24	2	0%	1.3	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	0.9%	4.14	3.18	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.7%	0.7%	4.44	3.65	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.7%	0.7%	4.44	3.65	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	51	221	52	25	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	0.9%	4.44	3.04	—
2026	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	42	0	46	203	49	19	10	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	5.9%	5.44	6.00	—
2026	30	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	42	0	46	203	49	19	10	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	5.9%	5.44	6.00	—
2026	30	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	42	0	46	203	49	19	10	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.4%	14.8%	4.9%	5.44	5.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	OAK	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	3.3%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	164	31	21	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.9%	3.5%	5.36	5.45	-0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	OAK	29	0	31	129	24	17	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.48	5.62	-0.4
2030	34	MLB MLE	OAK	24	0	25	107	20	14	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.4%	4.9%	4.0%	5.66	5.83	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	OAK	11	0	12	51	9	7	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.9%	5.9%	3.5%	5.36	5.45	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	OAK	15	0	16	68	13	9	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.48	5.62	-0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	OAK	11	0	12	51	9	7	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.4%	4.9%	4.0%	5.66	5.83	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	168	31	22	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.25	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	111	30	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.25	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		209	11	310	1385	251	165	34	5%	1.5	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.5%	4.82	4.44	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	7	200	895	162	107	22	5%	1.5	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.5%	4.82	4.44	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 46 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.00 (+1.05)K% 24.1% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.100	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	4.93%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 42 IPFIP 3.08 → 3.65 (+0.57)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.810	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.043	×1.200	0.65%

Result: FIP 3.08 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 9 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.06 (+0.15)K% 26.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.860	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.183	×1.100	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 50 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.81 (+0.63)K% 21.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.66%	—	×0.810	17.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.100	12.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.940	×1.200	1.18%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 45 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.78 (+0.73)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.810	21.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×1.100	14.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.957	×1.200	1.25%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 11 IPFIP 4.03 → 3.99 (−0.04)K% 16.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.860	13.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.00%	—	×0.900	16.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 36 IPFIP 4.96 → 6.10 (+1.14)K% 16.6% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.57%	—	×0.770	12.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.86%	—	×1.150	12.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷0.944	×1.250	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 6.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 72 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.00 (+0.94)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.53%	—	×0.770	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.86%	—	×1.150	9.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.46%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shohei Tomioka (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.7%	12.8%	3.3%	—	5.61	18.5%	5.5%	95	+0.28	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	80
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	80
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	79
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	79
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	77
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	75
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	74
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	74
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	74
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	73
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	73
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	38	18.6%	13.0%	1.38	5.42
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*