Jake Lyons
P
Aberdeen IronBirds
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 280 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 11 | 80 | 332 | 102 | 37 | 7 | 50% | 3.6 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 4.41 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 11 | 80 | 332 | 102 | 37 | 7 | 50% | 3.6 | 30.7% | 11.1% | 19.6% | 2.1% | 3.62 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 5 | 51 | 220 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 29% | 3.0 | 18.3% | 12.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 5.32 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 5 | 51 | 220 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 29% | 3.0 | 25.0% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 21 | 6 | 63 | 272 | 71 | 20 | 6 | 29% | 3.0 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.16 | 4.31 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 21 | 6 | 63 | 272 | 71 | 20 | 6 | 29% | 3.0 | 26.1% | 7.4% | 18.8% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 3.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 77 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 22 | 193 | 824 | 167 | 97 | 26 | 37% | 3.2 | 20.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 23 | 200 | 852 | 173 | 101 | 27 | 37% | 3.2 | 20.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Lyons (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 43 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 76 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 76 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 75 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 73 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 73 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 72 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 72 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 72 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 72 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 71 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 71 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 71 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 71 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 71 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |