Chris Kachmar

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	27	20	107	3.69	3.70	20.5%	9.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.47
2025	28	MIX2 levels	24	24	112	5.22	4.25	24.5%	11.9%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.83
2026	29	AAABAL	10	7	31	5.74	4.60	18.1%	13.9%	—	K 15.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	1	1	6	5.13	5.13	17.9%	11.9%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBBAL	3	3	17	5.17	5.25	18.1%	12.0%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBBAL	4	4	21	5.28	5.41	18.0%	12.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%17.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	4	0	8	30	12	4	0	0%	2.0	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	0.0%	2.25	1.41	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 1	4	0	8	30	12	4	0	0%	2.0	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	0.0%	2.25	1.60	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	10	10	45	201	42	20	3	100%	4.5	16.1%	11.4%	4.6%	2.0%	5.84	4.29	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	10	10	45	201	42	20	3	100%	4.5	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	1.5%	5.84	3.44	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	9	36	9	5	0	50%	1.4	25.0%	13.9%	11.1%	0.0%	2.08	2.75	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	9	36	9	5	0	50%	1.4	25.0%	13.9%	11.1%	0.0%	2.08	2.75	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	25	11	67	296	75	21	12	44%	2.7	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	4.5%	4.84	4.82	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	25	11	67	296	75	21	12	44%	2.7	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	4.1%	4.84	4.13	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	107	458	94	45	9	74%	4.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.4%	2.9%	3.69	4.47	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	107	458	94	45	9	74%	4.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.4%	2.9%	3.69	4.47	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	107	458	94	45	9	74%	4.0	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.0%	3.69	3.70	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	112	489	120	58	15	100%	4.7	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	3.6%	5.22	4.83	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	112	489	120	58	15	100%	4.7	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	3.6%	5.22	4.83	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	112	489	120	58	15	100%	4.7	24.5%	11.9%	12.7%	3.1%	5.22	4.25	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	10	7	31	144	26	20	3	70%	3.1	15.5%	12.5%	3.0%	2.3%	5.74	4.63	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	10	7	31	144	26	20	3	70%	3.1	15.5%	12.5%	3.0%	2.3%	5.74	4.63	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	10	7	31	144	26	20	3	70%	3.1	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.1%	5.74	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	46	196	35	24	6	100%	5.8	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.25	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	39	163	29	20	6	100%	6.4	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.5%	5.28	5.41	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	17	72	13	9	2	100%	5.7	18.1%	12.0%	6.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.25	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	21	89	16	11	3	100%	5.2	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.5%	5.28	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	38	162	29	20	5	100%	6.4	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.4%	5.23	4.96	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	151	104	26	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.4%	5.23	4.96	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		106	75	379	1654	314	176	51	71%	3.6	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	3.1%	4.70	4.54	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	40	200	873	166	93	27	71%	3.6	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	3.1%	4.70	4.54	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 31 IPFIP 4.48 → 4.63 (+0.15)K% 18.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.06%	—	×0.860	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×0.900	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.48 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 74 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.65 (+0.94)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.47%	—	×0.810	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×1.100	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.57%	÷0.911	×1.200	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 38 IPFIP 5.09 → 5.15 (+0.06)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.860	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.29%	—	×0.900	14.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.93%	÷1.125	×1.100	3.84%

Result: FIP 5.09 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 105 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.47 (+0.91)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.14%	—	×0.810	17.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.100	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷0.854	×1.200	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 67 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.82 (+0.74)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.810	20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.100	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.082	×1.200	4.50%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 45 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.29 (+0.88)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.90%	—	×0.770	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×1.150	11.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.928	×1.250	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Cubs 1 · 8 IPFIP 1.41 → 2.91 (+1.50)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.250	16.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.41 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Kachmar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	17.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	5.32	18.0%	5.9%	85	+0.19	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	81
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	72
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	71
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	70
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	69
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	69
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	69
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	68
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	67
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	67
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	67
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.0%	12.0%	1.24	5.18
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*